January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[poolz1]

Weeklies suggest that changes to the epo region look to start around feb 3rd or so...Which means we should start seeing light at the end of the tunnel in the LR toward mid/late week next week.  Some very nice looks in there as the month of feb progresses.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

That one window before we torch imo...

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That one window before we torch imo...

This is while we will be experiencing a brief thaw.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

This is actually starting to remind me of what we saw around Thanksgiving after having a second look.  Longer range teleconnections are actually starting to look good as the MJO wave weakens.

 

[frd]

39 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This is actually starting to remind me of what we saw around Thanksgiving after having a second look.  Longer range teleconnections are actually starting to look good as the MJO wave weakens.

 

I believe the La Nina may be weakening as we progress through Feb. Whether there is a lag effect, not sure.  

[Interstate]

Looks like after tonight... All Lake Cutters until 384

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, frd said:

I believe the La Nina may be weakening as we progress through Feb. Whether there is a lag effect, not sure.  

Let's hope it is...may be help us to get something out of this winter

[Ji]

27 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Looks like after tonight... All Lake Cutters until 384

i dont care what the ensembles say.....all the OP models show warm and cutters. We are definitely not scoring for the rest of the month

[Cobalt]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Let's hope it is...may be help us to get something out of this winter

That's what 13/14 did, right? Not comparing the two, but it was something similar, or it was neutral strengthening into weak Nino?

[CAPE]

Some of you need to stop focusing on every op run. There is not a lot to be enthusiastic about in general with the advertised look on the ensembles through the end of the month either imo, but just maybe we get a surprise over the next 10 days if all the stars align. Not a total shutout pattern as the up-top look in the NA is at a minimum serviceable, so it's possible. Just not sure it will be good enough to overcome the unfavorable Pac. Admittedly my expectations are pretty low through the end of the month based on the advertised h5 pattern on the GEFS and EPS. Hopefully the EPS weeklies are on to something and we get a flip out west, and we dont waste more than the first week in Feb before we get back into a favorable pattern. Its going to take some patience though, which understandably is in short supply at this point. What else are ya gonna do though? Having other hobbies is good!

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

That's what 13/14 did, right? Not comparing the two, but it was something similar, or it was neutral strengthening into weak Nino?

13/14 was cold neutral but it had a personality established already. Big time -epo driving the bus and progressive flow. Cold was in and out constantly but it was in sync with the northern stream more than it wasn't. Our one good southern connection panned out too. It was a stars align type of year. 

This winter has a personality too but it's out of sync as far as mixing cold and precip goes. We didn't fight much to get snow in 13/14. It's clear were going to fight every time this year. So this year is much more "normal" than 13/14. Don't expect a repeat of that year until you're out of college and probably married with kids.  I'm not saying we won't a good winter before then. Just that combining a raging +ao/nao and a huge # of events doesn't happen but once every 20 years if that. 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont care what the ensembles say.....all the OP models show warm and cutters. We are definitely not scoring for the rest of the month

You might be right. Nothing shows an easy path the rest of the month. There are some paths though. I hope we score so I can bump troll this post every 30 minutes for a couple days. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

13/14 was cold neutral but it had a personality established already. Big time -epo driving the bus and progressive flow. Cold was in and out constantly but it was in sync with the northern stream more than it wasn't. Our one good southern connection panned out too. It was a starts align type of year. 

This winter has a personality too but it's out of sync as far as mixing cold and precip goes. We didn't fight much to get snow in 13/14. It's clear were going to fight every time this year. So this year is much more "normal" than 13/14. Don't expect a repeat of that year until you're out of college and probably married with kids.  I'm not saying we won't a good winter before then. Just that combining a raging +ao/nao and a huge # of events doesn't happen but once every 20 years if that. 

Makes sense. Obviously, the two winters are vastly different. Wet and cold years only come around so often, and so we're stuck with cold and dry as of now, which is certainly better than persistent prolonged warm periods we've seen with the past few anemic La Nina years.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

13/14 was cold neutral but it had a personality established already. Big time -epo driving the bus and progressive flow. Cold was in and out constantly but it was in sync with the northern stream more than it wasn't. Our one good southern connection panned out too. It was a stars align type of year. 

This winter has a personality too but it's out of sync as far as mixing cold and precip goes. We didn't fight much to get snow in 13/14. It's clear were going to fight every time this year. So this year is much more "normal" than 13/14. Don't expect a repeat of that year until you're out of college and probably married with kids.  I'm not saying we won't a good winter before then. Just that combining a raging +ao/nao and a huge # of events doesn't happen but once every 20 years if that. 

The warm blob just isn't there.

[blizzardmeiser]

We are due for a period of above normal temps- probably till early February

[WxUSAF]

HM says to keep hope alive

 

[Ji]

HM says to keep hope alive
 

We're not the Midwest or the northeast

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

You might be right. Nothing shows an easy path the rest of the month. There are some paths though. I hope we score so I can bump troll this post every 30 minutes for a couple days. 

It's not a great look but it's not the worst. JI is just full tilt right now. But this right here is a fine for this range imo and implies maybe.  This wave though is the one that has a chance if it digs a bit more and follows closely on the heels of the cutter. 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not a great look but it's not the worst. JI is just full tilt right now. But this right here is a fine for this range imo and implies maybe.  This wave though is the one that has a chance if it digs a bit more and follows closely on the heels of the cutter. 

 

Yeah if we are going to luck our way into something decent before early Feb, this might very well be the time frame..

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-PNA Aleutian ridge on long term models continues to be a model error as a strong anomaly, worst case scenario it's a ridge centered near Scandinavia or the Bering Straight. 

[Bob Chill]

Starting to see some half decent ens agreement for good hp placement somewhere around d10-12ish. Gefs and eps both have similar looks and solutions baked into the spread. The piece of the puzzle I like seeing is a CAD type of setup so even a west track can still work.

We haven't had many (if any) good cold hp placements to our north this year. The few LR looks that teased us ended up being a hp centered over TN or MO and not up above like we need for a CAD event. The upcoming look may end up the same but if we're going to track the window, that's a feature to pay attention to. 

The 18z gfs "close call" inside of d10 is probably a phantom. I don't see much if any support for a good shortwave track under us. The pac is fighting like a champ right now. Within the realm but it looks tenuous at best. If spacing and timing starts looking good in the med range then we'll do what we always do but imho I think the next real chance is 10 days away. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

As we move toward February, models will always have SE ridge above average temps, because of last few years. This year is different. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting to see some half decent ens agreement for good hp placement somewhere around d10-12ish. Gefs and eps both have similar looks and solutions baked into the spread. The piece of the puzzle I like seeing is a CAD type of setup so even a west track can still work.

We haven't had many (if any) good cold hp placements to our north this year. The few LR looks that teased us ended up being a hp centered over TN or MO and not up above like we need for a CAD event. The upcoming look may end up the same but if we're going to track the window, that's a feature to pay attention to. 

The 18z gfs "close call" inside of d10 is probably a phantom. I don't see much if any support for a good shortwave track under us. The pac is fighting like a champ right now. Within the realm but it looks tenuous at best. If spacing and timing starts looking good in the med range then we'll do what we always do but imho I think the next real chance is 10 days away. 

I agree in general. Without getting too "atomic" with the ens guidance, days 9-13 hold some promise for at least a portion of our sub-forum, probably favoring west.

[Isotherm]

I posted this in NY forum:

 

No real alterations to my thoughts. This week has demonstrated that a less than auspicious circulation will tend to make it exceedingly difficult to produce coastal snowfall of significance (or at all). At the end of the day, the 1/5-2/5 period of this winter will be remembered for being mostly snow-less along I-95 from NYC southward, in my opinion. The warmer than normal pattern is on track, and the somewhat delayed initiation does not implicate a shorter thaw period. The ephemeral pulse of blocking and concomitant favorability across the northern tier circa Jan 26th +/- a couple days is directly related to the wave-1 energy transfer into the stratosphere. Vertical propagation of rossby waves will decrease thereafter as wave 1/2 remain suppressed, with a subsequent neutralization of the NAM. Thus, the SPV will strengthen again toward the final days of January (ozone remains below normal now actually). By the end of January, frictional torque and soon after mountain torque should surge positive w/ a renewed jet extension and GWO circulation toward p4. There will be numerous days in the 40s and 50s over the course of the next few weeks. There is a chance, especially in the interior, for a wintry event late January; this is low probability for the coast, and if anything occurred, would likely be low-end. February then turns warm for the first week at least. I expect wave 2 to increase in early February resulting in more pressure on the vortex, and more wave 1 activity soon following. The eastward jet extension and propagating tropical forcing will eventually reconfigure the North Pacific circulation through rossby wave breaks such that we resume poleward EPO ridging, and more importantly, inclusion of the PNA domain, as we approach mid February. The AO will turn negative as well, possibly with some NAO support for the first time this winter, but that is more indeterminate. I am confident that the middle of February onward (second week, but probably mid/late in that week, the 10th +/- a few days) will feature another bout of favorability. This should produce the second window to which I referred pre-season, for a significant+ snow event on the East Coast. My winter outlook had that window as Feb 1-15, but I think a more accurate range is now Feb 8-22. At this point, I think the more conducive period could run at least 3 weeks. Prior to that initiation, we have at least 3 weeks of hostile circulation with significantly suppressed snow opportunities for the coast, better in the interior Northeast.

[Interstate]

CMC looks interesting at the 240 mark

[yoda]

53 minutes ago, Interstate said:

CMC looks interesting at the 240 mark

Yeah, but that HP needs to get here a bit faster from it's location

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Interesting that CPC has above average precip 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 3-4 week. Not really sure how that could happen right now. 

[cae]

I know this isn't the right thread, but last night I put together a post on why the closed H5 might have worked against us this time.  It's buried in the obs thread, but if anyone's interested here it is.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50837-jan-1617-event-obsdisc/?page=8&tab=comments#comment-4785255

 

[usedtobe]

I'm not very encouraged by the pattern and think our snow chances through the remainder of the month are below average.  That doesn't mean that there will be no chances but with all the system slated to start crashing into the west and a mean ridge in the east.  snow chances may be hard to find.  The ensembles from the Euro and from ERL PSD suggest that the EPO will be positive through the remainder of the month.  The pattern suggests the storm track will be to our north.  Yes, the NAO may go negative but not in a manner very favorable to us.  

Here are two discouraging teleconnnection forecasts.  The combination of a negative PNA and positive EPO pretty hard to overcome.  The PNa pattern may improve towards the end of the month but that's a long way off.  Have to hope thee ensembles are wrong. 

 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I'm not very encouraged by the pattern and think our snow chances through the remainder of the month are below average.  That doesn't mean that there will be no chances but with all the system slated to start crashing into the west and a mean ridge in the east.  snow chances may be hard to find.  The ensembles from the Euro and from ERL PSD suggest that the EPO will be positive through the remainder of the month.  The pattern suggests the storm track will be to our north.  Yes, the NAO may go negative but not in a manner very favorable to us.  

Here are two discouraging teleconnnection forecasts.  The combination of a negative PNA and positive EPO pretty hard to overcome.  The PNa pattern may improve towards the end of the month but that's a long way off.  Have to hope thee ensembles are wrong. 

 

 

Matches well with Isotherm's view and hard to disagree. We wait till Feb ., and even March to score more significant snowfall. 

Interesting in a way, there was a head fake as to the early snow and colder temps in December, dropping a hint that the oncoming winter would be colder and even snowier than normal.  I think that might work really well in a EL Nino background, but not with a La Nina , as those Ninas give you the front end goodies. 

However, it would make sense that there is a window in Feb for a large scale , significant snowfall event(s). Thanks for your thoughts Wes, they are always appreciated.