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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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7 minutes ago, psurulz said:

Unfortunately, the 2nd week of February might be too late for this winter to get anything going.

Let's worry about that during the first week of Feb. There is no long duration shutout pattern showing up anywhere. If we get to the second week of Feb with no additional snowfall I'll be very surprised. Not shocked but unlikely we get shut out. 

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24 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

18z gefs seem to be signaling something in the D10-13.  A lot of kitchen sink solutions in there....

ETA: Bob beat me to it!

Agreed. Kitchen sink of tracks for sure but I like seeing the west tracks with CAD. We haven't had one of those this year. Some great coastal tracks but would be nice if we didn't have to worry about track.  Plus, west tracks get the western folks in the game every time. 

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. Kitchen sink of tracks for sure but I like seeing the west tracks with CAD. We haven't had one of those this year. Some great coastal tracks but would be nice if we didn't have to worry about track.  Plus, west tracks get the western folks in the game every time. 

I really havent been paying close attention to the D10+ LR...too busy chasing down my first inch of snow. lol  When I saw this I thought it looked interesting...sure enough, there is a nice bump in the snowfall mean during this time.  Probably a long shot but at least its something to discuss as we wait for our epic mid feb!

gefs_slp_stdev_noram_47.thumb.png.6165bb12d0f0434f8fdb8e7413e41ba5.png

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just hold out for that one.  I'll be back from Europe on the 22nd.  You know it's not a party without me.  

No problem there. 25th+ is when things line up for a shot at something.

Weeklies looked really good after the first week of Feb all the way through into early March. Best run I've seen yet honeslty. Got the good pieces....-ao/nao/epo combo. Even the first week of Feb is far from a shutout pattern but pac is still fighting us. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No problem there. 25th+ is when things line up for a shot at something.

Weeklies looked really good after the first week of Feb all the way through into early March. Best run I've seen yet honeslty. Got the good pieces....-ao/nao/epo combo. Even the first week of Feb is far from a shutout pattern but pac is still fighting us. 

Agreed. there is a general consus of my favorite mets,  including DC climo, and positive vibes too that moving forward things should start to look better and better after the peak warm up next week. Real potential I see as we enter Feb. and move deeper into the short month.

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5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The band is still together. Lol. I'm always good. The only thing that burns me are big events that vanish in under 48 hours. Once inside of that 48 hour range you can almost see the snow piling up out the window and getting it pulled last minute sucks. I never let myself get to the point of no return until really close in. If there are temp problems I don't get hooked until after its happening. Something about those close in rug pulls feels worse than a hangover though. 

 

For all the grumbling about long range this year we both were talking about this threat window from over a week out and saying how even though nothing was there something like a frontal wave could easily come at us in that pattern.  It's disappointing it won't max out potential but the general idea was there from way out.  I'm calling it a win.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc going for a big dog in fantasyland. Interestingly the gfs is trying to do something around the same time but not nearly as good looking as this....

gem_z500_vort_us_40.png

I was gonna say something then didn't. Gfs has the threat too but doesn't bring it together. Some gefs members did today. 

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My timing is always perfect.

I was at Hollywood Casino tonight, and I missed the dusting in Dale City.

Now, I am in Dale City and I will miss the 3-5 inches of fresh snow tonight or tomorrow in West Virginia.

I'm gonna be 2 for 2.

 

except for the snow Tuesday night lol, I WILL see that

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No problem there. 25th+ is when things line up for a shot at something.
Weeklies looked really good after the first week of Feb all the way through into early March. Best run I've seen yet honeslty. Got the good pieces....-ao/nao/epo combo. Even the first week of Feb is far from a shutout pattern but pac is still fighting us. 
Watch the first week Feb during the transition produce and the epic look pattern thereafter fail us.....again. I wouldnt complain....snow is snow.
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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That includes tonight/tomorrow,  correct? If it does, can you post that map through 72 hours so we can appreciate what snowfall is really being advertised in the long range. 

There's practically no 2" coverage for tonight/tomorrow so it's a lot of "hits". Keep in mind that the lower GEFS resolution can make things look better than they are. Some of those big events are straight west tracks with plenty of mixing. Those solutions pile up too much snow on the ens members. EPS shows the next real window between the 27th-29th give or take a day. I'm not sold that the d9-10 day deal is an easy rainer. We've seen lots of amp/warmth tone down as leads shorten. We'll just have to wait and see. We're going to be warm and/or boring wx wise for the next 7-9 days after the current light event is over. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That includes tonight/tomorrow,  correct? If it does, can you post that map through 72 hours so we can appreciate what snowfall is really being advertised in the long range. 

It only has 1/2"-1" across the area from this week so just subtract that. 90% of that is after day 8

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There is obviously still a good bit of spread at day 8-10 but the general idea seems stable on all the globals and esnembles.  After a cutter, or maybe 2, in the day 5-7 period a front will clear and then our prospects for a storm after that depends on 2 things.  How far south of us the boundary decides to set up and how quickly another storm ejects such that we can time up the cold and the next approaching system.  Its not overly complicated but getting the timing right is the problem.  There are enough hits within the ensembles to suggest there is a chance.  The cold looks half decent and the -AO could help the boundary get far enough south that if something comes along before the high departs it has a chance.  But the pacific is still crap and is going to try to rise heights pretty quickly in the east so a fail is possible if not likely also.  But as said before its not a shut out no chance pattern.  Its just one that requires some timing luck. 

Things are still vague further out but what we can see looks hopeful.  The weeklies were down right nice after about Feb 10th.  And it looked like the kind of pattern that locks in for a long run.  Were talking 3-4 weeks of opportunity.  And Feb 10-march 10 isnt a bad time to have a -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA pattern.  Thats a sweet look for that time of year.  Of course skill that far out is weak at best but its one more data point indicating we have a chance at getting things timed up good for us after this stretch of not so good pacific driven pattern.  It makes logical sense if we assume the forcing in the pacific continues to propagate at a somewhat steady rate it would be back into favorable (or at least NOT hostile) regions by then.  And if the base state before the tropical forcing started hurting us was helpful as we saw before we can reasonably assume there is a good chance the not so bad pacific look will return.  On top of that we are already seeing signs that the AO and NAO want to provide some help.  The PV is not about to collapse but its taking some abuse and if we can get the pacific back and hold onto some AO/NAO help things get interesting.  

One last thing, some are pointing out that the NAO indices arent showing negative even when the H5 looks like it.  One problem is the NAO is measured by surface pressure differences between Iceland and Portugal I believe in the winter.  For our purposes a west based NAO over greenland is better anyways.  But beyond that if pressures are higher then normal over Iceland but ALSO higher then normal to the south where its measured for the difference, then the index is muted.  If we suddenly see pressures fall some to the south of the NAO domain suddenly the same look up over Greenland and Iceland that is neutral or even slightly positive becomes a negative index value.  Not sure I explained this well but the bottom line is its not simply whats going on over Greenland that determines that NAO value but for our purposes higher pressures over Greenland at H5 is probably more important for snowfall.  The look there to me says if we can get the pacific to stop pumping heights in the east of the CONUS and translating that out into the atlantic, suddnely the NAO will become negative.  If that look lasts long enough until the pacific pattern flips back in the question.  I am hopeful it does.  When I did data analysis for this winter it was clear the NAO and AO were the keys, there were almost NO examples of snowy periods during a nina without help from the AO/NAO.  If we can time up a favorable pacific with help from the AO/NAO then we CAN and HAVE had snowy periods during a nina.  Hope is not lost yet.  

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PSU, very well explained. The numerical NAO is based on 1000mb surface pressures but we identify favorable conditions based on h5. There is often a disconnect between what we think is good and what the numbers say. I thought the weeklies looked very good and it appears they are going to get the second half of Jan mostly right. Especially the Npac where it matters most. 

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