WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I’ll give starting one a shot. Maybe it’ll change the luck. Started it with the first of the 12z models coming. You guys keep up the good work. Good luck all. Please pin mods. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12z gfs will make sure this thread starts off in classic MA fashion...unmitigated disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12z gfs will make sure this thread starts off in classic MA fashion...unmitigated disasterCan't waitSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I trust WinterWxLuvr. He was good luck for us a couple of years ago. last year naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Nam says it's snowing at 84 trends!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z gfs will make sure this thread starts off in classic MA fashion...unmitigated disaster I bet it'll be right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z gfs will make sure this thread starts off in classic MA fashion...unmitigated disaster Bets on who poo poos it first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Nam says it's snowing at 84 trends!! Your grand kids will speak of the great heavy cartopper of January 2018 and how the NAM nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: I bet it'll be right where we want it. Oh, there's no doubt. I had a complicated week and I'm feeling burned out. Nothing that a calculated trolling spree can't fix though. Coffee is kicking in so I should have plenty of material in 30 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I don't spend time comparing what the best run gave me to the latest run I like to see what this run gives me. Makes it less stressful. 6z GFS gave my hood about 2-3" which works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Bets on who poo poos it first When the coastal grazes the delmarva and not even a trace makes it west of the bay then mitch should be off the rails. He has the flu so it might be incoherent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: When the coastal grazes the delmarva and not even a trace makes it west of the bay then mitch should be off the rails. He has the flu so it might be incoherent. You spelled Ji wrong again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Oh, there's no doubt. I had a complicated week and I'm feeling burned out. Nothing that a calculated trolling spree can't fix though. Coffee is kicking in so I should have plenty of material in 30 minutes or so Same, plus or minus. We'll get some accumulation this week so that's good news. I am chasing avg+. Seriously tho the first part looks like a decent little thing in its own... I could see widespread 1"+ out of that if it works out.. not the most common thing either, so somewhat neat. This winter has generally given snow lovers all it can locally so far so I remain generally positive about how things are going despite minimal precip etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I am about as excited as the fat kid who pulls up to chick fila on a Sunday afternoon Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: You spelled Ji wrong again Ji isn't a predicton becuase of the binary hard code in his grey matter. He's a robot now. If he doesn't complain then it means he didn't hit ctrl+alt+delete yet this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: I am about as excited as the fat kid who pulls up to chick fila on a Sunday afternoon Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I like this Ji better than the other one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Haven't seen the usual wet blankets yet this morning, but the midday runs should bring them out of the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yesterday, the 12Z run of both the GFS and Euro yesterday reminded me of the feb 16, 1996 snowstorm that the models didn't do well on until right at the last minute. Models have improved lots since then but I thought I showed the reanlysis 500 h pattern versus the Euro 500. Note that on the Euro 500, the trough is actually not as positive tilted and there was a big hint of a 500 circulation near where the 1996 case was. For those interested, the 1996 storm gave me 12" and ADW 13 but DC only around 8 or 9. That was the potential I saw if all went right. The model 500h patterns have stepped back some. The 500h from tehe GFS was not that different from the Euro and it did close off a low to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Same, plus or minus. We'll get some accumulation this week so that's good news. I am chasing avg+. Seriously tho the first part looks like a decent little thing in its own... I could see widespread 1"+ out of that if it works out.. not the most common thing either, so somewhat neat. This winter has generally given snow lovers all it can locally so far so I remain generally positive about how things are going despite minimal precip etc etc. I tried that angle for 48 hours but all it did was make it worse around here. It's time to do the right thing....dump a gallon of 93 octane on the floor and toss a half smoked Marlboro in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I like this Ji better than the other one Chick fill a is closed SundaysSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Chick fill a is closed Sundays Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk How much do you weigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Yesterday, the 12Z run of both the GFS and Euro yesterday reminded me of the feb 16, 1996 snowstorm that the models didn't do well on until right at the last minute. Models have improved lots since then but I thought I showed the reanlysis 500 h pattern versus the Euro 500. Note that on the Euro 500, the trough is actually not as positive tilted and there was a big hint of a 500 circulation near where the 1996 case was. For those interested, the 1996 storm gave me 12" and ADW 13 but DC only around 8 or 9. That was the potential I saw if all went right. The model 500h patterns have stepped back some. The 500h from tehe GFS was not that different from the Euro and it did close off a low to our south. Interesting comparison. I knew nothing of that storm at all. It's a better look than plenty we have had but it also feels a bit more thread the needle than we like around here. It's still not even that hard to envision the shorter term models picking up more of a storm... that mainly jumps us. I am afraid of complicated.. plus I think maybe I am a worse snow forecaster than I used to be for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Yesterday, the 12Z run of both the GFS and Euro yesterday reminded me of the feb 16, 1996 snowstorm that the models didn't do well on until right at the last minute. Models have improved lots since then but I thought I showed the reanlysis 500 h pattern versus the Euro 500. Note that on the Euro 500, the trough is actually not as positive tilted and there was a big hint of a 500 circulation near where the 1996 case was. For those interested, the 1996 storm gave me 12" and ADW 13 but DC only around 8 or 9. That was the potential I saw if all went right. The model 500h patterns have stepped back some. The 500h from tehe GFS was not that different from the Euro and it did close off a low to our south. No wonder you wrote an article lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 How much do you weigh?I feel like I'm being invited to battleIn all seriousness I'm 165Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I tried that angle for 48 hours but all it did was make it worse around here. It's time to do the right thing....dump a gallon of 93 octane on the floor and toss a half smoked Marlboro in the middle That wouldn't actually light the gas from my recollectionSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The joke was less complicated than the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I know someone said the GFS trended more like the Euro at 6z. I do not see that at all. The GFS has been pretty much set in it ways at the H5 level more or less for the last 6 runs. It never had a closed off low like yesterday 12z Euro. If anything the Euro moved towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2/96 had a 3/09-esque western cutoff. It was also the "original" 1/25/00- very similar lead-time bust with the late evening news broadcast being the first to talk about measurable snow hours before the event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 If you go to 42hrs 500mb map on gfs and hit prev. Run twice, you can see the gfs moving the base of the trough west https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018011312&fh=42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: I know someone said the GFS trended more like the Euro at 6z. I do not see that at all. The GFS has been pretty much set in it ways at the H5 level more or less for the last 6 runs. It never had a closed off low like yesterday 12z Euro. If anything the Euro moved towards the GFS. The Euro has long had an "overamplification bias" in the mid/long range. I'm not sure it's as real as it once was.. some of these things remain in our minds more than in the real world... but I think we have seen it at times at least this winter. GFS bias is sort of the other direction at range, so it's tough in a winter like this which probably generally favors a flatter solution (BombCyclone aside) given Nina and so many waves in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.