Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 The SW is coming into the central plains with authority on the 12z... maybe a little too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:01 PM, MD Snow said: Some inverted trough love at hr108 and hr114 on the 12z gfs. Expand What we need is the 2 pieces to merge overhead instead of staying separate. Another VERY close call but the trailing piece is still too late. That trailing piece is what's keeping the surface temps up when the coastal passes. If we can get them to work together it could do something for our area. Still a long shot but if you want to know what to look for...that's it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Looks like rain to snow at 192 on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:28 PM, yoda said: Looks like rain to snow at 192 on 12z GFS Expand I was wondering if anybody was going to mention this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 192-204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:22 PM, Bob Chill said: What we need is the 2 pieces to merge overhead instead of staying separate. Another VERY close call but the trailing piece is still too late. That trailing piece is what's keeping the surface temps up when the coastal passes. If we can get them to work together it could do something for our area. Still a long shot but if you want to know what to look for...that's it... Expand Bob... what is your take on the Feb 2nd? Looks like we are waiting for the change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:29 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I was wondering if anybody was going to mention this time frame. Expand At first I didn't like the more N-S alignment but it works anyway. This setup is right out of the 13-14 playbook. We had several like it. One in Dec and another couple in JF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 2:10 AM, dallen7908 said: EPS snow chances over the next 15 days couldn't be much lower given the time of year and chaos. The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is 0, 1, and 2 inches. The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 0%, 33%, and 56%. The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 3%, and 6%. Of course day 15 only brings us to February 8th when the pattern is expected by most to improve. Expand The updated values from the 00 UT EPS run for (00Z Jan 25 to 00Z Feb 09). The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is >T, 2, and 3 inches. The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 10%, 56%, and 68%. The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 4%, and 16% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:30 PM, Interstate said: Bob... what is your take on the Feb 2nd? Looks like we are waiting for the change over Expand Looks exactly like some of the events we saw in 13-14. Mid 40's and rain flipping to paste and temps crashing. I like it but wish it was 6 days closer...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Canadian sneaks us a little somethin' somethin' hrs 120-126 as well. Doesn't have the GFS flash freeze & paste storm though. Worlds apart there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:32 PM, Bob Chill said: Looks exactly like some of the events we saw in 13-14. Mid 40's and rain flipping to paste and temps crashing. I like it but with it was 6 days closer...lol Expand Never a fan waiting for the temps to crash... Most of the time we are left stand on the wall with everyone else dancing. We could use a good 4-6 incher to get morale up in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Ha, GFS is almost bigger than what it even showed. Vort doesn’t quite grab the surface low enough to throw a CCB back at us, but it’s close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:33 PM, Interstate said: Never a fan waiting for the temps to crash... Most of the time we are left stand on the wall with everyone else dancing. Expand It's all worth it when you go instantly from moderate rain to moderate snow. GFS solution is touchy, but I like it consistently doing a similar thing 8 days out. We just need that to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:33 PM, Interstate said: Never a fan waiting for the temps to crash... Most of the time we are left stand on the wall with everyone else dancing. Expand No matter how the axis lines up, the only way it's going to go is rain to snow. It's warm in advance of that strong front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:29 PM, yoda said: 192-204 Expand how bout it. I think we'd all take that an run.. Nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Uh GFS? You Okay? Completely dumps just NE of Maine. Gives us generally 7-10" of snow. Good thump of snow for most of the area for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:34 PM, WxUSAF said: Ha, GFS is almost bigger than what it even showed. Vort doesn’t quite grab the surface low enough to throw a CCB back at us, but it’s close. Expand Just the run of the mill 4-8/6-10 here and just missed the CCB as you stated... hopefully this is a run the GFS can get better on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:36 PM, yoda said: Just the run of the mill 4-8/6-10 here and just missed the CCB as you stated... hopefully this is a run the GFS can get better on Expand This run was right in the pocket of all the good hits on the GEFS/EPS. The good thing is there seems to be some wiggle room with the end result snowing on us. It's going to be a long week....the risk of all rain won't go away until the short range when we can trust what we're seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 So the CMC/GFS are 180 degrees of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:36 PM, Cobalt said: Uh GFS? You Okay? Completely dumps just NE of Maine. Gives us generally 7-10" of snow. Good thump of snow for most of the area for us. Expand That dump in Maine may help us out with the next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 No shortage of precip...would be some heavy white asteroids turning to powder after the flip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Been a while since we've had a decent Rain-Snow event. Last time I can think of was March 5th 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:39 PM, Bob Chill said: This run was right in the pocket of all the good hits on the GEFS/EPS. The good thing is there seems to be some wiggle room with the end result snowing on us. It's going to be a long week....the risk of all rain won't go away until the short range when we can trust what we're seeing. Expand Yeah, for sure will be a long week if that keeps showing up! Not that I would mind if it works out. It looks very March 5, 2015-ish in a way, to me. Strong front goes through, with a decent wave moving up. Iffy setup, but hey, it has happened before. (ETA: As I recall with that March 2015 event, the GFS was actually hinting at that possibly happening some time in advance, for what it's worth.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:43 PM, Cobalt said: Been a while since we've had a decent Rain-Snow event. Last time I can think of was March 5th 2015. Expand Ha! Two minds, with but a single thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:44 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, for sure will be a long week if that keeps showing up! Not that I would mind if it works out. It looks very March 5, 2015-ish in a way, to me. Strong front goes through, with a decent wave moving up. Iffy setup, but hey, it has happened before. Expand Also helps that it wouldn't take long for stickage. That event worked out in the March sun, even for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just like the ensemble runs last night...gfs sets right up for round 2 a couple days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Man, I really like the gfs version.... up to 1"/hr for 6 hours on this panel and temps below freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:46 PM, Bob Chill said: Just like the ensemble runs last night...gfs sets right up for round 2 a couple days later... Expand the noise of the vaccuum that is sucking me back in is growning louder (seems like every 6 hours too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:46 PM, Bob Chill said: Just like the ensemble runs last night...gfs sets right up for round 2 a couple days later... Expand Ha, yes indeed! We're going to see some nice, exciting oper runs...and some real crappers...in the next few days, until things get sorted out one way or another. I'm sure emotions will be all over the place in here with each run, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On 1/25/2018 at 4:45 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Ha! Two minds, with but a single thought! Expand Ha! Reminded me of that event very much so. Rain-Snow events can be by far my favorites. Storms such as that, or Jan 26th 2011 are up there in my top 10-20 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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