North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Well, I apologize, gym. I wasn't trying to be combative. My bad. I will step out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 4:26 PM, North Balti Zen said: Well, I apologize, gym. I wasn't trying to be combative. My bad. I will step out. Expand Did I miss something? Hope I didn't get into the middle of anything, I thought we were just having a casual conversation about past moderate vs significant events and our perceptions of their frequency. I didn't pick up on any hostility or anything but I have been distracted and not following every post lately so maybe I am out of the loop. I was just throwing my thouhts out there so hopefully nothing I said was taken as a shot or hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 You're good, hoff. I tried to PM you but you can't get messages. Back to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 4:26 PM, North Balti Zen said: Well, I apologize, gym. I wasn't trying to be combative. My bad. I will step out. Expand Oops-- I think my tone came across differently than what it sounded like in my head. I'm sorry that it was too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I was not aware of how pronouced the Western Pacific MJO wave was . This combined with the events at the top later this month point to a real change coming. Looking forward to real pressure being focused on the PV both from the East and the West . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 There is the pressure , if believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 If nothing else...the 12z gfs called our number for both the crosshairs and right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Interesting looking snow squalls on the 3km NAM well behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Nice to see the ramping up of the MJO amplitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 4:50 PM, Bob Chill said: If nothing else...the 12z gfs called our number for both the crosshairs and right side of the gradient. Expand Yeah that would be a pretty nice way to start Feb, lol. Where is Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 GEFS loaded up again with gradient type storms starting around the Feb 3rd. Probably one of the best looks I've seen combing precip with cold nearby all winter. Not all storms are snow but compared to where we've been all winter...this looks like a real window coming into focus. A lot of waves running boundary type of events showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 4:50 PM, Bob Chill said: If nothing else...the 12z gfs called our number for both the crosshairs and right side of the gradient. Expand I liked the back to back systems from Feb 4th to the 7th... hopefully it will remain there. Day 10-15 on both the GFS/GEFS certainly suggest potential for some decent weather events. As you said, lets hope we are on the right side of the gradient -- if we are, we will have a good amount of fun and tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 5:51 PM, yoda said: I liked the back to back systems from Feb 4th to the 7th... hopefully it will remain there. Day 10-15 on both the GFS/GEFS certainly suggest potential for some decent weather events. As you said, lets hope we are on the right side of the gradient -- if we are, we will have a good amount of fun and tracking. Expand What we need is a general long duration pattern supportive of precip with cold overhead or nearby. Screw these tiny windows embedded in cold/boring/dry. It doesn't looks like a cold pattern so I'm already prepared for the complaints about snow melting 1-2 days after it falls and all that stuff or warm ground or whatever else. lol. I'm in numbers mode now. I just want to see snow fall and pile up. It can melt in 4 hours after it shuts off and IDGAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 5:51 PM, yoda said: I liked the back to back systems from Feb 4th to the 7th... hopefully it will remain there. Day 10-15 on both the GFS/GEFS certainly suggest potential for some decent weather events. As you said, lets hope we are on the right side of the gradient -- if we are, we will have a good amount of fun and tracking. Expand The transitory gradient step down seems like it wants to takes its sweet time . Hopefully we score a few times as it would appear there will be intial resistance to the incoming cold. Looking better and better for early to mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 5:55 PM, frd said: The transitory gradient step down seems like it wants to takes its sweet time . Hopefully we score a few times as it would appear there will be intial resistance to the incoming cold. Looking better and better for early to mid Feb. Expand We probably want it to take time or even just hang around in general. Ensemble means d15 look just like the CFS weeklies week 3. Week 4 isn't good though. Rolls the EPO/PNA ridge forward. This would be a dry pattern here for sure. Looks pretty good weeks 4-6 though. Regression back to the gradient look with plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 4:42 PM, North Balti Zen said: You're good, hoff. I tried to PM you but you can't get messages. Back to the models. Expand I'll clear my messages now. Sorry box was full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 12z NAVGEM has the H in the right place... but the SLP track is too close... hrs 162-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 12z EURO Apps runner Day 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 6:39 PM, yoda said: 12z EURO Apps runner Day 6-7 Expand GFS/CMC went total flat nothingness and the euro is keeping the amplified double wave idea alive. A bit of a model war but too far out for ops to really be at odds. We'll see how it looks in 2-3 days. EPS still had the same spread of 20+/- members dropping a trace or more but nothing exciting on at the top end. We prob need to sit on our hands for a week or so before good stuff starts coming into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 6:47 PM, Bob Chill said: GFS/CMC went total flat nothingness and the euro is keeping the amplified double wave idea alive. A bit of a model war but too far out for ops to really be at odds. We'll see how it looks in 2-3 days. EPS still had the same spread of 20+/- members dropping a trace or more but nothing exciting on at the top end. We prob need to sit on our hands for a week or so before good stuff starts coming into range. Expand I agree Bob, I will put my money on the GFS/CMC combo based on past experiences this winter season. But tracking is coming up again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Thats not a nice look at 240 on h5 re 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 7:09 PM, yoda said: Thats not a nice look at 240 on h5 re 12z EURO Expand All ops and ens have the same look. "Should" be the final trough ejecting from the west before the pac improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 7:09 PM, yoda said: Thats not a nice look at 240 on h5 re 12z EURO Expand Typical Nina Cutterfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 7:31 PM, Bob Chill said: All ops and ens have the same look. "Should" be the final trough ejecting from the west before the pac improves. Expand What is your guess for the Euro weeklies coming out later ? Maintain the pattern change and push it up a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 8:12 PM, frd said: What is your guess for the Euro weeklies coming out later ? Maintain the pattern change and push it up a few days? Expand Weeklies basically just extend the previous 0z run and last nights eps already had the cold in here by the 6th. The thing I'm most curious about with tonight's weeklies is whether or not the EPO ridge rolls forward and shifts the trough axis too far east in our area. 0z EPS already had the axis centered just east of the MS river so my guess is week 3 looks cold and dry. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Accuweather on the early-mid February pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 This pretty much sums up mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Thank goodness; I feel so much better now with Bastardi on-board for a wintry Feb. He is usually so conservative, so it must really be a major signal for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 8:30 PM, Bob Chill said: Weeklies basically just extend the previous 0z run and last nights eps already had the cold in here by the 6th. The thing I'm most curious about with tonight's weeklies is whether or not the EPO ridge rolls forward and shifts the trough axis too far east in our area. 0z EPS already had the axis centered just east of the MS river so my guess is week 3 looks cold and dry. lol. Expand Didn't you say eariler you thought even if the EPO ridge rolls too far East, it would retrograde back West later possibly, providing another prime window, granted that's way out there but interesting to say the least. I feel with the MJO in the right phase, at the right month, puts us in the game for a big event mid Feb. And, the way the MJO phases look to progress it would be possible the entire month of Feb. to wind up colder than normal, maybe by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 On 1/22/2018 at 8:53 PM, frd said: Didn't you say eariler you thought even if the EPO ridge rolls too far East, it would retrograde back West later possibly, providing another prime window, granted that's way out there but interesting to say the least. I feel with the MJO in the right phase, at the right month, puts us in the game for a big event mid Feb. And, the way the MJO phases look to progress it would be possible the entire month of Feb. to wind up colder than normal, maybe by a lot. Expand You better hope it doesn't. if it ends up much colder than normal, then there is a good chance it ends up drier than normal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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