Days and days of snow disco

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

'course!  ... we mean in the relative sense.

it would be hugely impacting in either era - ...just not as much.  I read anecdotally that there were on-camera Mets passing it off as much less?

I didn't honestly live around here then, so I don't have any direct recollection.   I the Cleveland Superbomb out my way in the GL though... I remember that as 6-12" forecast' with near blizzard warning. I was a little guy then, and the word blizzard was just an abstraction to widen eyes, but didn't have any corporeality until I saw ... 30" and white so dense that you didn't know what the f was going to come next when the gusts of wind shook the house. 

I actually found some old news coverage out of Cleveland from that storm recently. The footage was uber intense. I believe there were mets here that were honking, Harvey included, but there had been a bust not long before and the general public wasn't putting much store in the forecast...much to their later chagrin. Edit, Will beat me to it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That's totally diff qpf from what I see too. That's like almost double over the interior. 

I've never noticed that much of a difference before. Strange.

[wx2fish]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've never noticed that much of a difference before. Strange.

His map matches weather.us. Cant recall seeing that big of difference before.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've never noticed that much of a difference before. Strange.

I was really perplexed you guys weren't more interested haha.  It rips a couple panels of steady 1/2"-1"/hr snows for a swath of SNE.

I was like the Euro just laid out warning snows and everyone is like meh.  It looks better than 00z at least to my eyes lol.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I've never noticed that much of a difference before. Strange.

Kuchie for QPF too?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I've never noticed that much of a difference before. Strange.

I remember once or twice a few years ago seeing differences between storm vista and WSI. It didn't happen consistently but like two random runs. It was weird. Today reminds me of that. I'm more inclined to believe the WSI numbers because those other maps are significantly higher than other guidance. Like .60-.70 is really high. 

[CoastalWx]

Not sure what's more surprising, that QPF difference, or Pitt/Jax game.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I remember once or twice a few years ago seeing differences between storm vista and WSI. It didn't happen consistently but like two random runs. It was weird. Today reminds me of that. I'm more inclined to believe the WSI numbers because those other maps are significantly higher than other guidance. Like .60-.70 is really high. 

I mean with the onshore flow, there may be a narrow area getting a good dose of snow. Almost reminded me of those injection lows that advect good low level theta-E to make it a bit unstable.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

His map matches weather.us. Cant recall seeing the big of difference before.

I also effing hate our graphics.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what's more surprising, that QPF difference, or Pitt/Jax game.

Good luck against this team. They legit 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was really perplexed you guys weren't more interested haha.  It rips a couple panels of steady 1/2"-1"/hr snows for a swath of SNE.

I was like the Euro just laid out warning snows and everyone is like meh.  It looks better than 00z at least to my eyes lol.

Don’t worry. We see it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah haha ... in fact, each duple of those animated donuts ... in an ironic twist, I bet that's about the number of 12+" snow bombs we've had in the last 20 years, comparative to the cryospheric horror of having half as many 6"ers before that... 

You know ...it's probably part and parcel in why the 1978 stuff was such a big deal.  Not to get into an Ali versus Tyson dim witted plebeian debate over which boxer is better ... but I still argue that 1978 now might not carry the same impact as it did then, if it were to happen now.

 

1978 wouldn't carry the same impact today...people would not have gone to work a d been stranded on 128.

[CoastalWx]

On a side note, some of the mesos go nuts with the CJ. in 3 miles you go from like 1" to 8" LOL.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean with the onshore flow, there may be a narrow area getting a good dose of snow. Almost reminded me of those injection lows that advect good low level theta-E to make it a bit unstable.

Yeah I don't doubt that it could happen like that...it's just weird to see the difference. Like we were just mentioning we could see a nice area of enhancement somewhere so it's meteorologically sound...just not sure why the two outputs are so different. Are they on different resolutions? The powderfreak map looks like a better resolution than the WSI maps. But I do recall the same thing with the SV discrepancy a few years ago and it turned out that SV was prob out to lunch on the much bigger totals. (At leas the storm played out that way) 

[NorEastermass128]

Should we start a separate thread for the OES tomorrow for coastal peeps?

[ineedsnow]

Weather.us is the same as that map..

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's totally diff qpf from what I see too. That's like almost double over the interior. 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't doubt that it could happen like that...it's just weird to see the difference. Like we were just mentioning we could see a nice area of enhancement somewhere so it's meteorologically sound...just not sure why the two outputs are so different. Are they on different resolutions? The powderfreak map looks like a better resolution than the WSI maps. But I do recall the same thing with the SV discrepancy a few years ago and it turned out that SV was prob out to lunch on the much bigger totals. (At leas the storm played out that way) 

I'm pretty sure it's a resolution thing. The WSI ones aren't showing the 9KM stuff, but it's made to come out quick too.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Should we start a separate thread for the OES tomorrow for coastal peeps?

They'll be about 3 ppl posting..lol.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember once or twice a few years ago seeing differences between storm vista and WSI. It didn't happen consistently but like two random runs. It was weird. Today reminds me of that. I'm more inclined to believe the WSI numbers because those other maps are significantly higher than other guidance. Like .60-.70 is really high. 

Now I want to see what you guys are looking at.  It sounds like two different runs.  I mean .5-.7" through the heart of SNE is a solid storm verbatim.

I had to double check that I was looking at 12z when Scoots said less than 1/2" QPF, haha.  I had no idea the same model run could be so different depending on where you get it from.  

[NorEastermass128]

Good point. I think I score a feathery inch tomorrow. Maybe 2-4” by you and somewhere in SE MA. Honestly know very little about how Cape Ann does in these setups. SEMA is good for sure. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Good point. I think I score a feathery inch tomorrow. Maybe 2-4” by you and somewhere in SE MA. Honestly know very little about how Cape Ann does in these setups. SEMA is good for sure. 

Cape ann will get the CF enhancement I think. I may be too far west, but we shall see.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heeeh... 

that Euro solution - folks are focused on 'where's the beef' as far as the snow, but that closing low is little precarious there.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie with an inv

[Typhoon Tip]

...almost smacks as though the models are more interested in moving the pattern change in before allowing this trough to complete its life-cycle.  hm

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Heeeh... 

that Euro solution - folks are focused on 'where's the beef' as far as the snow, but that closing low is little precarious there.

Yeah it's still trying to keep the door open on the larger system backing into eastern areas for Thursday. It's not far off. Euro has always been the most bullish on this idea...I'm still pretty skeptical that one makes it to us but the euro makes you think about it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1978 wouldn't carry the same impact today...people would not have gone to work a d been stranded on 128.

Coastal damage would still be the same. Wind damage to trees would still be the same.

No cars stranded I agree, maybe better snow clearing?  We needed huge National Guard front end loaders to clear our street a week after the storm. Not sure how that could be improved.  My school would still collapse (my elementary school roof caved in).

Fewer deaths, maybe a quicker return to normalcy for most.  Def a more aware public, more homes with generators, etc.

[25thamendmentfan]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For one thing, '78 would not be as poorly forecast nowadays anyway. You wouldn't have everyone going into work that day...everyone would know that a blizzard was going to start midday or late morning. A huge part of that disaster was everyone going into work because they weren't expecting a big problem that quickly. They thought it would come in gradually and also never be a huge storm to begin with...more of a moderate deal. (That's kind of what doomed December 13, 2007 too...6-9" forecast so people thought it was manageable) 

 I believe '78 was the storm where Harvey Leonard in his rookie season made a name for himself as being the first and only met to sound the warning that it could be a blockbuster. Everyone else had been snakebit by the Cleveland bomb bust 10 days earlier. That super bomb had been predicted to be an east coast storm but then ended up cutting. The old LFM didn't have latent heat release in the model and the super bomb had so much latent heat release down south it really screwed wth the model accuracy. Turned a coastal into a stemwinding monster straight north through the Apps and into Lake Erie. All the Mets were really cautious because of that leading into the 78 blizzard a short time later. Harvey grew caution to the wind and was right. Lol. 

 

But yeah i agree in modern times we would handle 78 a lot better. Even if we still introduced the element of surprise we would probably handle it a bit better since we have better cars now and better road crews...though it would still be gridlock I'm sure. 

I'm not sure if Mark Rosenthal was on air at that time but he was working at channel 5 in some capacity and he said he called Bob Copeland to say something to the effect a big one is coming. I don't believe any footage exists of the forecasts that preceded the blizzard on channel 4 or 5. Not sure what the other forecasts had but Harvey certainly gets all the credit possibly because channel 7 saved some tape. Would Harvey still be on tv 40 years later were it not for 1978? He's still great, but lots of great local news personalities all over America of his generation have been forced out of the business.

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not to quibble but that's a range of .6 to .78 over my head based on the color code

You’re using fake news to make yourself right.  You said 20 mm over your house-that’s wrong.  15 is correct.  Why do you have to make yourself right all the time when you’re wrong?

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol

[PineHillsWx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For one thing, '78 would not be as poorly forecast nowadays anyway. You wouldn't have everyone going into work that day...everyone would know that a blizzard was going to start midday or late morning. A huge part of that disaster was everyone going into work because they weren't expecting a big problem that quickly. They thought it would come in gradually and also never be a huge storm to begin with...more of a moderate deal. (That's kind of what doomed December 13, 2007 too...6-9" forecast so people thought it was manageable) 

 I believe '78 was the storm where Harvey Leonard in his rookie season made a name for himself as being the first and only met to sound the warning that it could be a blockbuster. Everyone else had been snakebit by the Cleveland bomb bust 10 days earlier. That super bomb had been predicted to be an east coast storm but then ended up cutting. The old LFM didn't have latent heat release in the model and the super bomb had so much latent heat release down south it really screwed wth the model accuracy. Turned a coastal into a stemwinding monster straight north through the Apps and into Lake Erie. All the Mets were really cautious because of that leading into the 78 blizzard a short time later. Harvey grew caution to the wind and was right. Lol. 

 

But yeah i agree in modern times we would handle 78 a lot better. Even if we still introduced the element of surprise we would probably handle it a bit better since we have better cars now and better road crews...though it would still be gridlock I'm sure. 

Harvey definitely sounded the alarm much earlier then any of the other mets but the call was for 12-24 inches on the news that morning so I disagree that people didn't know a storm was coming midday, they just choose not to believe it due to the earlier bust you mentioned. I was a Jr in high school and it was canceled. I lived in Dedham and remember that the wind was already whipping at 7 in the morning. What a storm....