Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This was a tough event...the forcing in the midlevels was pretty weak, so relying on LL forcing can be tricky. If the BL doesn't produce that as much as models show, then things can get pretty ragged...esp away from the front. There was the inverted trough and weak ML forcing to the west in the Berks and E NY...and then the better LL forcing ended up over far eastern CT into E MA and RI...stayed colder in SE areas, but the forcing ended up a bit weaker so overall QPF was lower too. Central CT was caught in the middle. I've seen these events go both ways...we had one back in March 2008 that produced a nice stripe 7" over central MA into SE NH when it was looking kind of meh...and then I've seen it happen like today where nobody really seems to get hammered....parts of SE NH are doing ok I guess, but pretty narrow area. Kind of like with NORLUN deals... It's in general ...most of these events that require resolving that lower 200 mb of the trop. tend to fade coherency to the invisibility of the ground. Lot easier for the models ...and users of the models alike, to just have a nice solid wallop of a mid level forcing pass over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This. There’s usually a model that will show you what you want...the old “fool yourself into believing things aren’t falling apart” idea. Ya, been there done that before. Objective forecasting isn’t as easy as it seems. When I see 3 hour previous qpf spit-outs from a global model, I'm like "great. now let me look at a short-range model to see what the reflectivity might look like to actually get us to those 3 hour printouts." The short-range models never showed anything but a POS precip shield, from the end of their ranges and forward, run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 40 minutes ago, JC-CT said: When I see 3 hour previous qpf spit-outs from a global model, I'm like "great. now let me look at a short-range model to see what the reflectivity might look like to actually get us to those 3 hour printouts." The short-range models never showed anything but a POS precip shield, from the end of their ranges and forward, run after run. Very true. Good point..live and learn for a lot of people. But as Will said..sometimes these can go both ways also. This went down the tubes for most this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except that’s not what I did. Based on Euro , Reggie, they were all giving 5-7” here. I was banking on the 925 warm front and forcing. It didn’t work out. I’m not sure why or what happened. Bottom line , I sucked ...But the ones that go in your favor, you do pretty well on. Everyone busts, and not just Dolly Parton Bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: This was a tough event...the forcing in the midlevels was pretty weak, so relying on LL forcing can be tricky. If the BL doesn't produce that as much as models show, then things can get pretty ragged...esp away from the front. There was the inverted trough and weak ML forcing to the west in the Berks and E NY...and then the better LL forcing ended up over far eastern CT into E MA and RI...stayed colder in SE areas, but the forcing ended up a bit weaker so overall QPF was lower too. Central CT was caught in the middle. I've seen these events go both ways...we had one back in March 2008 that produced a nice stripe 7" over central MA into SE NH when it was looking kind of meh...and then I've seen it happen like today where nobody really seems to get hammered....parts of SE NH are doing ok I guess, but pretty narrow area. The funny thing is the WRF 3km nailed this event for the past 48 hours. It never bought into the larger QPF. It was like .2-.4" with even less in C.CT up into C.MA....with the most of around .5" in ENY and Berk's. The problem with that models is you can never trust it so who knows. The BTV WRF also was very meager for the past day of runs. Those sniffed something out...same with RPM runs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, JC-CT said: When I see 3 hour previous qpf spit-outs from a global model, I'm like "great. now let me look at a short-range model to see what the reflectivity might look like to actually get us to those 3 hour printouts." The short-range models never showed anything but a POS precip shield, from the end of their ranges and forward, run after run. Yeah the mesos (except RGEM) never really bit on this fully. It's sort of odd when you see the globals printing out widespread 5-9" and you expect the NAM/WRF to be like 9-12"...but instead they were 2-5". Probably should've been more of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the mesos (except RGEM) never really bit on this fully. It's sort of odd when you see the globals printing out widespread 5-9" and you expect the NAM/WRF to be like 9-12"...but instead they were 2-5". Probably should've been more of a red flag. Even the areas that got 6-7", I bet they had 15 or 20:1 so melted equivalent is low. Tough performance for the euro and RGEM. But as you said...the mesos can score on a couple of events, and then you never know when they'll just crap themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even the areas that got 6-7", I bet they had 15 or 20:1 so melted equivalent is low. Tough performance for the euro and RGEM. But as you said...the mesos can score on a couple of events, and then you never know when they'll just crap themselves. The mesos def showed potential for crap....but it was hard to know exactly where. Some of them had a horrendous screw job into ORH and up to Ray...which didn't really happen. They were just a red flag in hindsight for an ugly precip shield. But it's not a set rule....we've seen it go the other way before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The mesos def showed potential for crap....but it was hard to know exactly where. Some of them had a horrendous screw job into ORH and up to Ray...which didn't really happen. They were just a red flag in hindsight for an ugly precip shield. But it's not a set rule....we've seen it go the other way before. It’s hard to determine what’s fake news and what could be real. Honestly at first I didn’t buy that CT screw job until more runs started showing this. The RPM actually did hint at it, but again...sometimes it’s tough to believe it. Just have to watch model trends and near term trends. Even here, if we had a well established band of precip, I could have pulled off 3-5. Temps just off the deck could support a near 32 paste. But other than the one band that went to town for an hour..it wasn’t deep sustained lift. But I’ll take 2” if picturesque snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s hard to determine what’s fake news and what could be real. Honestly at first I didn’t buy that CT screw job until more runs started showing this. The RPM actually did hint at it, but again...sometimes it’s tough to believe it. Just have to watch model trends and near term trends. Even here, if we had a well established band of precip, I could have pulled off 3-5. Temps just off the deck could support a near 32 paste. But other than the one band that went to town for an hour..it wasn’t deep sustained lift. But I’ll take 2” if picturesque snow. Ha yeah, so hard to know when to trust them. Like you have models like ECMWF, UKMET, RGEM, even GFS with decent hits of 5"+...when do you throw that for the RPM, BTV WRF, and 3km WRF? I don't think you ever do haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha yeah, so hard to know when to trust them. Like you have models like ECMWF, UKMET, RGEM, even GFS with decent hits of 5"+...when do you throw that for the RPM, BTV WRF, and 3km WRF? I don't think you ever do haha. Yeah. It's easy to say in hindsight. But then next time you might just end up looking even worse if you hug the RPM/NAM/extended HRRR over the RGEM and euro. It actually wasn't that much of a bust in MA. Most people made the lower end of the forecast ranges. We won't always hit the higher end. That's why we have ranges...sometimes it doesn't perform to max. Kevin's area and further down in CT got the true shaft job in this. Was still a nice little event. I enjoyed it. But then again I enjoy almost any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 It looked like most areas i looked at se of 495 and nw of se mass were just under their forecast range Sterling poster 2", ray 3", dunno what steve and according man got, was working all day but this was really not that bad of modeling imo. I was looking at nam inside 36 hrs, btv wrf and euro. Qpf trends were lower and box put out decent map that echoed close to my general thoughts that rev said "was due to inexperienced mets" just going wild w the paint brush. Im hoping we could trend monday nite into a decent wintry event for interior, box mentioned the chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It looked like most areas i looked at se of 495 and nw of se mass were just under their forecast range Sterling poster 2", ray 3", dunno what steve and according man got, was working all day but this was really not that bad of modeling imo. I was looking at nam inside 36 hrs, btv wrf and euro. Qpf trends were lower and box put out decent map that echoed close to my general thoughts that rev said "was due to inexperienced mets" just going wild w the paint brush. Im hoping we could trend monday nite into a decent wintry event for interior, box mentioned the chance 3-6" was a common range, and most spots got 3". 2-5" would have been better, but it wasn't a bad range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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