weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro isn’t far from lassoing Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Thursday came a bit closer this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Euro isn’t far from lassoing Thursday Its digging more...trend is there, anyway. It will be tough to get both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Wow....closed H5 under SNE on Thursday....something is going to give...don't like the big system crashing the PNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2-4" on cape and islands from Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2-4" on cape and islands from Thursday. Almost dude for 108 hrs that's workable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 So close for something amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: So close for something amazing I don't see massive potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Can’t have both. Wed hit, Thursday east. Timing is better for second wave but lead wave will compress heights behind it, shunting it well east. Flow is progressive along the east coast for wave one, but I do think there’s some room for modest improvement in that regard due to a precipitous drop in the NAO between now and the 17th, from ++NAO to +NAO/neutral. Right now I like widespread 6” amounts across eastern New England as a highest confidence number, with maximum (low confidence) potential of around 10” for wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks to me like river east gets 3-6/4-8 with 2-4 west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Here's BOX initial thoughts on Monday OES. Quote The main focus on Monday will turn to the mesoscale and potential for a few inches of localized snow accums. Given the strong high shifting into eastern Canada an easterly 925 mb LLJ of 20 to 25 knots will develop. Meanwhile...a mesoscale coastal front will setup probably near the Plymouth county coast. Surface temps might be in the upper teens and lower 20s to the northwest of the coastal front...while portions of the Cape/ACK will likely see temps rise above freezing. This seems to be a very good setup for ocean effect snow showers with 925T between -8c and -12C along with added enhancement along the coastal front and help from the land/sea interface. While a coating to 1 inch of snow will be possible across eastern MA and even into portions of RI...the main focus will likely run from Boston/s south shore and into Plymouth county along the coastal front. Cape Ann may also be impacted by this mesoscale snow as well. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are certainly possible in this region with the low risk of very isolated 4-5 inch amounts. This could potentially impact both the Monday morning and afternoon commutes...especially on the highly traveled Route 3 connecting Boston to the south shore. While we are not confident enough in amounts to issue a winter weather advisory at this time...will go ahead and issue a special weather statement to highlight this potential. Meanwhile...not too far northwest of the BOS-PVD corridor probably will not see much more than flurries. High temps will mainly be in the lower to middle 20s...except near or above freezing near the Cape Cod Canal and Islands to the southeast of the coastal front. Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Quote Tue into Wed... A slight convergence in deterministic guidance will also be noted with this update, but will continue with means. The initial, moisture starved clipper with MSLP near or above 1025hPa looks to lose even more as the attendant wave, the PV anomaly mentioned above opens and gradually shifts toward near neutral status. This looks to yield offshore cyclogenesis along the weak stalled frontal boundary. This secondary low pres track will determine final snowfall totals, as PWATs increase to near 0.4 inches, which, although above normal, is generally less than 1 std deviation above normal. Lift is weak, and not always focused within the DGZ, even as the precip shield in advance of this secondary low overspread S New England. Operational total QPF values rang from about 0.25 to 0.5, and ensemble means support this. So may need to watch for an advisory lvl snowfall late Tue into early Wed assuming the secondary low falls near or inside the 40/70 Benchmark (ensemble clustering is close). However, still enough uncertainty that thermal profiles could warm enough along portions of the SE coastal plain to limit snowfall, or that the track could be far enough shore to also limit snowfall. These will continue to be better resolved. Temps run closer to normal, but given the uncertainty in weak low pres passage, there is enough uncertainty that temps may change a bit especially across the SE, where warmer low lvl thermal profiles are most pronounced. And lastly Thursday which looks to be offshore at this time. Quote Thu... The wave continues to open and shift E, orienting the trof-base jet streak poleward exit region offshore of the mid-Atlantic such that yet another, stronger coastal wave looks to develop. Given the spread in the initial wave, there is even more so with this wave. ECMWF is still the most amplified, with enough W draw to influence S New England yet again on Thu, but several ensemble members from both the GEFs and ECENS are offshore. Will need to watch the how the PV lobe is handled as it is better sampled, as this could prolong the period of wintry precip. This also marks the peak of the cold dome as the opening wave begins to lift to the ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 OES Aleet for James over the next 6-8hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: OES Aleet for James over the next 6-8hrs Does anyone have the stats on the epic February 1993 oes snow bomb that hammered the cape with 20+ inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Lightly snowing here. I wonder if we can score an inch or two out here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 We got flurries right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Does anyone have the stats on the epic February 1993 oes snow bomb that hammered the cape with 20+ inches? It was enhanced by a norlun trough. There's actually a paper that came out years ago by the inventor of the norlun phrase that mentions the event in some detail. http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 CJ in fill effect on NAM. Thru 84hr on 12km Thru 60hr on 3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Winds from 950-900 are east at 25-35kts. That's pretty good to get the snow up and over the CF. Might help extend snows a bit west of what models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 OES to KTOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was enhanced by a norlun trough. There's actually a paper that came out years ago by the inventor of the norlun phrase that mentions the event in some detail. http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 OES snow may be the perfect December 17 theme, adding specifically to the mise en scene of the mental Holiday cinema. But, other than the symbolism and nostalgia out the window, while shopping or glancing up during NFL timeouts ...it doesn't mean much else. OH, sure ... in a narrow band in Plymouth someone ends up enraged for this statement ... Excluding the delicate sensibilities in that person's backyard, it takes a pretty extraordinary set of environmental circumstances to be much else. NAM's trying sharpen up and close off the southern component of the mid week amplitude again ...as I am sure others have pounced on. That almost reminds ... tho not an analog per se, the general behvaior, that it could close off and get some rigorous cyclogenesis close enough to clock the M/A as it exits...then meandering as it fills on out to sea, much like that bigger more intense version of that total behavior which took place last year. That system brought blizzard conditions to the M/A to about NYC and LI...while perhaps advisory to the Pike.. .but ultimately, didn't come "up the coast". Again, I am not saying this system is an analog ...or that it will even do that, just that I could visualize where the NAM would end up with that mid level pinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Does Tip know it's Jan 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Does Tip know it's Jan 2018? Well, he was gone a couple of weeks. Alien abduction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Does Tip know it's Jan 2018? He means it would be spiffy to get an inch or two prior to Christmas to get you in the holiday spirit. In mid Jan it is kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Ggem has a little meat to it. Tries to blow it up a little as it passes SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ggem has a little meat to it. Tries to blow it up a little as it passes SE. We meat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gfs is a light event.... GGEM is a little better, but still a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is a light event.... GGEM is a little better, but still a light event. GFS is actually 3-5 while CMC is 5+ as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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