WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I think this is gonna come down to a nowcast event for a lot of us/places. How does it all come together will be key imo. It’s certainly a different feel with this. And the idea of this looking to run longer(Extend) like a poster in N. CT was saying yesterday evening, has not materialized at all. Basically a 6-8 hour window of accumulating snow for most places (except NW CT) is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It's going to be a 2-5'' needle job east of 91 where it stays all now as people post "this storm blows" all morning long isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 maybe the 18z gfs isn't so out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I think BOX may have cut back a little too much in SW 'burbs of BOS...like Walpole/Foxoboro/Sharon...I think they'll get more than 2-3". We'll see though...they've done a pretty good job this year overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think BOX may have cut back a little too much in SW 'burbs of BOS...like Walpole/Foxoboro/Sharon...I think they'll get more than 2-3". We'll see though...they've done a pretty good job this year overall. What are you guessing for your hood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, kdxken said: What are you guessing for your hood? I'm thinking 4-7" in Holliston....5-8" for Winter hill in ORH. Not a high confidence forecast...but I've been bearish on the advancement of the BL warm tongue since the beginning. Like I think that area I just mentioned SW of BOS will not see taint...or if they do, it will be inconsequential near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 35 minutes ago, DomNH said: It's going to be a 2-5'' needle job east of 91 where it stays all now as people post "this storm blows" all morning long isn't it. I swear ...sometimes these things seem like they are willed into existence by the fervent passion of the obsessive codependents ...ha. Either way, it's an event that's spraying solutions all over the place by some models, with max QPF nodes next to nadirs, mere townships apart and never in the same spot the next cycle either. My experience with that is that it usually under performs, and spit, band-aide and shoe laces cobbling together events by the models ... they tend to disappoint. .. But, we'll see... Perhaps the we'll get a more congealed rad presentation out of this. It just wouldn't shock me if the whole lot of it is over forecast - not that anyone has any choice in the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think this is gonna come down to a nowcast event for a lot of us/places. How does it all come together will be key imo. It’s certainly a different feel with this. And the idea of this looking to run longer(Extend) like a poster in N. CT was saying yesterday evening, has not materialized at all. Basically a 6-8 hour window of accumulating snow for most places (except NW CT) is about it. Huh? It’s been in NW CT all day and it snows until mid/late pm tomorrow. What are you missing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm thinking 4-7" in Holliston....5-8" for Winter hill in ORH. Not a high confidence forecast...but I've been bearish on the advancement of the BL warm tongue since the beginning. Like I think that area I just mentioned SW of BOS will not see taint...or if they do, it will be inconsequential near the end. Do you think the models could be too far west with max amounts? I know yesterday you were bullish of w/f getting just on a line from SE CT up to SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you think the models could be too far west with max amounts? I know yesterday you were bullish of w/f getting just on a line from SE CT up to SE Mass. Possibly too heavy...I do thinkt here will be at least one max out west due to the initial inverted trough setting up there. But I am a bit skeptical of them getting slammed after 12z tomorrow. OR at least slammed as hard as some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 unlike the "blizzard" which in true walt disney fashion transformed from a hot mess to more of a princess this one has maintained its real housewives of new jersey/mob wives hot mess appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Huh? It’s been in NW CT all day and it snows until mid/late pm tomorrow. What are you missing, Hours and hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Hours and hours of snow. Isn't it always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I don't think the Temperatures are going to be the problem here for the Boston area southwest to Hartford. It's obvious that the colder solutions are going to win out. It's going to be a precipitation problem. Unless these two precip shields blossom/gel into one at the right time, we will see two seperate entities that will never really get going and the dendrite formation will be lousy. I hope this isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Screams classic NE snowstorm. Somethings gotta give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Huh? It’s been in NW CT all day and it snows until mid/late pm tomorrow. What are you missing, Kevin, this is not An extended event as you touted last evening. It wasn’t looking like that last evening either...that’s just an exaggeration. And I mentioned NW CT in my post and said they are the exception...other than that area... you and I won’t start snowing until well after midnight 2-3 am most likely.and it’ll be over(accumulating snow) by noon or 1:00 pm. Sure there may be a few flakes in the air after that...but that’s not accumulating snow. Ryan says a 6 hour window of best snow for the area...nothing “extended” about that. If Ryan is wrong, and it’s still snowing and accumulating come 3-4 o clock tomorrow afternoon...I’ll be the first to say you were absolutely correct...And I was wrong. I think it’s important to keep our expectations very in check with this(4-6 inches is reasonable inland in western/central CT), expecting any more than that for most except NW areas, might be a disappointment. But we will see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Hey, But, That may close off off of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Hey, But, That may close off off of VA. I'm going 10-14" for the cape. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Well, it flurried this morning for 10min...that’s 1day. If it snows tomorrow morning...that’s 2 days. So days and days verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm going 10-14" for the cape. You? Take them up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well, it flurried this morning for 10min...that’s 1day. If it snows tomorrow morning...that’s 2 days. So days and days verified. I got a brief burst of OES yesterday. A quarter to a half inch today. Days and days...winter wonderland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Mesos did pretty well with this first batch cutting across NW MA / S VT / SW NH. Actually coming down at decent clip just horrible growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I got a brief burst of OES yesterday. A quarter to a half inch today. Days and days...winter wonderland Days and days and days....that’s a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Better than todays early runs, whats that 4-6? .44? Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 This is it for a while, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 FINAL CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/1-17-18-final-call.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I ll take the new HRRR and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I ll take the new HRRR and run Post herrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Post herrrrr You won't be thrilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You won't be thrilled Nope. Looks like the 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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