Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see why it’s that difficult really. The biggest qpf will be near and NW of the backbent warm from at 925. Will diagrammed it yesterday . You don’t need qpf maps to see where that will be Don't be upset and sad with your 2-4. I am fine with my 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yeah there is still hope for me to get a few inches of snow, maybe that second coastal low on the models gets going earlier on the models for 00z runs, and clips Cape Cod with accumulating snows for Thursday, the NAM and GFS are close to something bigger for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tossing Reggie? Gfs has .40+ for TOL County Wouldn't the globals have a better handle on this one due to the theta-e injection you mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Tippy and Jerry will like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wow, short range RAP model latest run shows the H5 trough closing off over VA, this could mean the storm gets going earlier on the guidance for 00z and clips us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Don't be upset and sad with your 2-4. I am fine with my 1-3. Do you ever follow along? Or just read like half a page of posts? You should get 4-6 as mets said and my area up to ORH west are in the 6-8” range with a few lucky spots at 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Wouldn't the globals have a better handle on this one due to the theta-e injection? Yes. Euro has 6-8” . So agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haha I missed that. Would love to see if he explained what he means by that. I'll have to scroll back. Yeah he didn’t lol. Someone mentioned it yesterday i think as a reason for nice totals and now he’s running with it, without context. Nobody is trying to steal anyone’s snow. Tolland has had a good a ride as anyone. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect lower ends of totals there... and maybe most places. Sue me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you ever follow along? Or just read like half a page of posts? You should get 4-6 as mets said and my area up to ORH west are in the 6-8” range with a few lucky spots at 10” I only get bits and pieces because I am too busy living the dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tippy and Jerry will like this Definitely cut back from last night but we take the thermals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely cut back from last night but we take the thermals! Better than todays early runs, whats that 4-6? .44? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The high res RGEM definitely cooled off from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Steve, Jerry, I think the second stronger coastal storm can clip the Cape and Islands with accumulating snows WEdnesday night into Thursday, 00z runs tonight will be really telling and plus the 18z runs were colder at the surface for Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Fwiw .. this is exactly how I would draw a map . This is what Box had and you’ll see revert back to . Will had said same and Scoots 4-7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fwiw .. this is exactly how I would draw a map . This is what Box had and you’ll see revert back to . Will had said same and Scoots 4-7” He had pretty much the same map two days ago and it's looked fine the whole time. Im not even sure what you all are arguing about...it's just a widespread 3-8" type snows and if you draw it out over 48 hours then most of New England (even up here) will fall in 3-8" range. It seems everyone is arguing over like 4" vs. 7". That isn't going to be resolved until it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fwiw .. this is exactly how I would draw a map . This is what Box had and you’ll see revert back to . Will had said same and Scoots 4-7” It’s a weird storm. When you have these two areas of separate forcing moving in, someone will do well and then you’re also dealing with a screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: He had pretty much the same map two days ago and it's looked fine the whole time. Im not even sure what you all are arguing about...it's just a widespread 3-8" type snows and if you draw it out over 48 hours then most of New England (even up here) will fall in 3-8" range. It seems everyone is arguing over like 4" vs. 7". That isn't going to be resolved until it's happening. You can easily see who has the jack fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: He had pretty much the same map two days ago and it's looked fine the whole time. Im not even sure what you all are arguing about...it's just a widespread 3-8" type snows and if you draw it out over 48 hours then most of New England (even up here) will fall in 3-8" range. It seems everyone is arguing over like 4" vs. 7". That isn't going to be resolved until it's happening. No disagreeing there to be sure. Though I do think high end places get 10”, but that will be localized. My only point has been where amounts were cut, they’ll be taken back up to where they were. That’s all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Both maps are for January 17th storm and the January 18th Coastal Storm potential, both are final maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Late hour HRRR runs so take with salt but through 10am and the storm is moving right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a weird storm. When you have these two areas of separate forcing moving in, someone will do well and then you’re also dealing with a screw zone. Certainly a weird storm. Something feels off for some reason but should be a nice advisory to low warning storm for a lot of posters. Models have been terrible with where the best forcing is focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ryan's got me down. I'm going 0.0 here. Fat, dumb and snowless is no way to go through life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Both maps are for January 17th storm and the January 18th Coastal Storm potential, both are final maps James, way too high with amounts on tomorrow’s map for everyone imo. and do you really think you will see 5 inches on Thursday? I mean if you see a anything on Thursday it will be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: James, way too high with amounts on tomorrow’s map for everyone imo. and do you really think you will see 5 inches on Thursday? I mean if you see a anything on Thursday it will be a surprise. I have a feeling things will work out, if they don't they don't, but I think the H5 trough will close off south of the area and cause an area of heavy snow to develop over the Cape and Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I ordered 5” for my backyard. But I was light on the tip last time, might get short changed this time around. That’s okay, I’d rather the kid go to school tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have a feeling things will work out, if they don't they don't, but I think the H5 trough will close off south of the area and cause an area of heavy snow to develop over the Cape and Islands I see none of that man. You have a great passion, but you’d do yourself a huge favor being realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This storm is garbage. Hopefully some cash in well inland. Feeling more confident that I see no more than a sloppy couple inches to light rain. Meh right into Boston and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRRx would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yikes. RPM is nasty away from rt 2 and river. It keeps both areas of forcing separate and flies it along lol. Not even boundary layer issues. Just had little moisture. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yikes. RPM is nasty away from rt 2 and river. It keeps both areas of forcing separate and flies it along lol. Not even boundary layer issues. Just had little moisture. Hmm. 4km NAM not too dissimilar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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