Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Oof - GFS is hideous statewide. Still keeps the heaviest totals in NW CT but is like 2" for Hartford/Tolland. Tossing Reggie? Gfs has .40+ for TOL County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Oof - GFS is hideous statewide. Still keeps the heaviest totals in NW CT but is like 2" for Hartford/Tolland. Ya this was a horrible run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Swiss model has me at .6-.7, GFS has me at .2 lol....I know which one I like better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Pretty much a majority of CT lost half its qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still gives you 4-6? Classic R/S line Cranston to BrockTon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I see no problem with it 5 plus here lol, yea that dry slot gonna hit someone It goes from .51 to .29 with the slightest move of a mouse on pivotal. Not the kind of margin I would be looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: Pretty much a majority of CT lost half its qpf. If you believe the GFS??? Euro and RGEM and SWiss model are looking fine. Of hour GFS never fails to surprise in one way or the other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't had a chance to look at anything today...if everything is trending colder, what is shoving the higher amounts west, the mid levels? Looks like to me its with the track of H7, This whole system is rather weak and an open wave that really never closes off at any level other then briefly @H5 but its way south and east of us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 At least the 21z RAP is the first run today to not look like complete dog sh!t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Still gives you 4-6? Loving that .8-1.0 mark right on my street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If you believe the GFS??? Euro and RGEM and SWiss model are looking fine. Of hour GFS never fails to surprise in one way or the other... Ya I certainly don't wanna believe but at this point who knows. The numbers on this one have been all over the place. It does seem like an off run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: The Jolly rancher type hard candies or the gummy bears are da bomb. I approve. Lots of emotional swings as the models swing inside 24hrs. Information overload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It goes from .51 to .29 with the slightest move of a mouse on pivotal. Not the kind of margin I would be looking for. Clickable soundings of which I posted 1 look good here, not that I believe the GFS but verbatim that would work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Classic R/S line Cranston to BrockTon Thats exactly right, swiss cheese seems to have a good thermal handle on New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This close in, dont we ride the Reggie vs GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This storm is so damn nebulous and uninspiring. Weak-azz, daytime storms suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I approve. Lots of emotional swings as the models swing inside 24hrs. Information overload. Very disorganized system, There is not one model that wraps this up like it was days ago, It will be interesting to see which ones handle it the best, I would think the Euro/RGEM would be good choices right now, But i guess we will have to look at the 0z runs, The 18z runs were not helpful and sometimes are not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The modeling has certainly been all over the place. A run for Everyone is the motto for this system. Everyone in SNE has had a good run from some model, and a bad run from some model...even as we are approaching go time. I'm going with the latest Euro/RGEM for my hood...it's been the most consistent(if one can even say that) as of late. We'll see how it shakes out??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: This close in, dont we ride the Reggie vs GFS? I'm showing RGEM over the RPM on air tonight. Glad we can do that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I approve. Lots of emotional swings as the models swing inside 24hrs. Information overload. That's why I think its good to keep the ranges relatively wide (as wide as is practical this close in)......4-8" is a range I like for most folks who are going to stay snow in this. I think basically anyone more than 10-15 miles off the coast will probably stay snow. I doubt that those runs with 2" of snow for those who stay snow are going to verify, and I'd be a little skeptical of the 0.90" qpf bomb runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: This close in, dont we ride the Reggie vs GFS? We ride whatever shows the most snow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I don’t see why it’s that difficult really. The biggest qpf will be near and NW of the backbent warm from at 925. Will diagrammed it yesterday . You don’t need qpf maps to see where that will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yeah, 4-8" is well within reason until something else develops that would change that to go in another direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's why I think its good to keep the ranges relatively wide (as wide as is practical this close in)......4-8" is a range I like for most folks who are going to stay snow in this. I think basically anyone more than 10-15 miles off the coast will probably stay snow. I doubt that those runs with 2" of snow for those who stay snow are going to verify, and I'd be a little skeptical of the 0.90" qpf bomb runs too. concur 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see why it’s that difficult really. The biggest qpf will be near and NW of the backbent warm from at 925. Will diagrammed it yesterday . You don’t need qpf maps to see where that will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: plus, theta-e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Very disorganized system, There is not one model that wraps this up like it was days ago, It will be interesting to see which ones handle it the best, I would think the Euro/RGEM would be good choices right now, But i guess we will have to look at the 0z runs, The 18z runs were not helpful and sometimes are not at all. Thats the way to go, euro/rgem. I cant trust any of these mesos. If this burns me, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Globals should win this one since we’re infusing theta e 4 hours ago, dendrite said: lolol...you reached deep into the weenie bag of tricks for that one This really made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's why I think its good to keep the ranges relatively wide (as wide as is practical this close in)......4-8" is a range I like for most folks who are going to stay snow in this. I think basically anyone more than 10-15 miles off the coast will probably stay snow. I doubt that those runs with 2" of snow for those who stay snow are going to verify, and I'd be a little skeptical of the 0.90" qpf bomb runs too. ALY used to issue Winter Weather Advisories for 3-8" all the time back in the day for their hill-town zones.... that seems like a nice range to use in this one too, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.