78Blizzard Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This storm is so damn nebulous and uninspiring. Right, and these are the ones that usually over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This storm is so damn nebulous and uninspiring. There will be a lot of the "Radar looks like s hit" post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Reggie tells Box to take em right back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As the colder trends continue you’ll see qpf amounts increase east. It’s a simple concept You heard Ryan....Wagons West with this. You'll do alright..but the more west you are with this the better it seems...at least at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d put money on more negative busts than anything. People can try to talk this thing into a good storm all they want.. but there are plenty of factors that could limit accumulations in a good amount of places. Maybe it works out and everyone does pretty well, but I’m bot Convinced. Someone is going to get dry slotted pretty good I think as well. Obviously hard to pin down right now. loaded with caution flags even back this way....strongly agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Right, and these are the ones that usually over perform. I don't see much evidence to even consider a higher ceiling. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't had a chance to look at anything today...if everything is trending colder, what is shoving the higher amounts west, the mid levels? I'm not sure actually...the mid-levels aren't that impressive on this...there's sort of an inverted trough initially out west, like prior to 12z which will focus some light to moderate snows...but then it tries to blow up a precip max there after that on some guidance...I'm sort of skeptical on it, but maybe it works out. The lower mid-levels (like 850-900) do try and form a bent back WF, but it tracks closer to the coast, and I think that is where some heavier amounts could occur...just to the N and NW of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: There will be a lot of the "Radar looks like s hit" post. What is shifting higher totals west, if this is really happening. I have to hit the gym and do legs before I can eveb look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: You heard Ryan....Wagons West with this. You'll do alright..but the more west you are with this the better it seems...at least at this moment. That was before 18z. Their numbers will come back up tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure actually...the mid-levels aren't that impressive on this...there's sort of an inverted trough initially out west, like prior to 12z which will focus some light to moderate snows...but then it tries to blow up a precip max there after that on some guidance...I'm sort of skeptical on it, but maybe it works out. The lower mid-levels (like 850-900) do try and form a bent back WF, but it tracks closer to the coast, and I think that is where some heavier amounts could occur...just to the N and NW of it. Regardless of what happens out west, I don't like the colder trends...I'm losing the mechanism to drive forcing IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d put money on more negative busts than anything. People can try to talk this thing into a good storm all they want.. but there are plenty of factors that could limit accumulations in a good amount of places. Maybe it works out and everyone does pretty well, but I’m bot Convinced. Someone is going to get dry slotted pretty good I think as well. Obviously hard to pin down right now. Sometimes you have to look at the setup, look at the synoptics and ask what is making these models run so warm. To me I fully expected models to get colder as the day wore on, and they did. What is a caveat is the energy and PWAT coming out of the southern stream., how does that all play out. Is there a dry slot, where does it set up, how does a potential coastal front enhancement work out? The initial push is obvious in Western New England to pump up there totals , we will see how the rest of us end up. There was a quick reverse on NWS part, not sure it was warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was before 18z. Their numbers will come back up tonight Possibly...We'll see?? I think I"m good for a solid 6 inches as it stands now...anything more than that from this will be a nice little bonus. Any snow is good snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Thunderblizzard said: 18z RGEM can work with that...I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 At this point, the debate is really over whether it's 4 or 6"....but regardless, I don't see a reason to forecast more than 8" or less than 4" across the heart of the region. I'll look at it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 29 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Dec 92 is so anomalous but I would have loved to see Berks footage (orh did awesome but I know a few places in the berks had up to 4 feet)....I was generally referring more the valley for comparison also the 1/11-12/2011 storm which dropped 15-22 inches here in the valley did produce some totals to 40 inches in the berks....this event often goes uncredited in extreme snowfall for those select towns.....the best meat was further south into ct were 2 foot totals were average with amounts to near 30 inches s/central ct Yeah. Pete (Ski Mrg) had some ridiculous amounts in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Driving to work will be fun in this, thumpty as in humpty GFS, DGZ dizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Gfs is actually decent for SE MA. Might end as DZ but some good mashies. Actually fairly uniform with advisory amounts back to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sometimes you have to look at the setup, look at the synoptics and ask what is making these models run so warm. To me I fully expected models to get colder as the day wore on, and they did. What is a caveat is the energy and PWAT coming out of the southern stream., how does that all play out. Is there a dry slot, where does it set up, how does a potential coastal front enhancement work out? The initial push is obvious in Western New England to pump up there totals , we will see how the rest of us end up. There was a quick reverse on NWS part, not sure it was warranted. I think Western portion of the area is a much safer play obviously. Kevin to ORH to Ray seem to be in the question zone... Kevin especially. I could easily see him getting 2 or 3 inches of baking powder crap snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I was meh about this storm a couple of days back and weenies were on my case. Still a meh moderate event for many. 4-6”. Steady as she goes. B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think Western portion of the area is a much safer play obviously. Kevin to ORH to Ray seem to be in the question zone... Kevin especially. I could easily see him getting 2 or 3 inches of baking powder crap snow. They will do fine. I’ll take the over on 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS is horrible this run for most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is actually decent for SE MA. Might end as DZ but some good mashies. Actually fairly uniform with advisory amounts back to CT. Ryan would not be a happy camper, .51 in my hood, we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ryan would not be a happy camper, .51 in my hood, we take Swiss miss failing me. Big shift north. That’s the problem, it plays catchup. I guess we treat it like hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I realize its the 18z, but .2" of QPF from the 18z GFS....????? 12Z GFS and Euro and 18z RGEM are at least 3 times that amount. Wow...zero consistancy with the GFS, this thing is up and down with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: 18z RGEM Pretty much what i envision Medium to high end advisory for many outside SE mass/c.c. Warning best shot catskills Tactonics berks I could see Rev's elevation and longitude helping a bit but right on edge Also on Steve's post you were about .40 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Oof - GFS is hideous statewide. Still keeps the heaviest totals in NW CT but is like 2" for Hartford/Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Swiss miss failing me. Big shift north. That’s the problem, it plays catchup. I guess we treat it like hrrr. Still gives you 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think Western portion of the area is a much safer play obviously. Kevin to ORH to Ray seem to be in the question zone... Kevin especially. I could easily see him getting 2 or 3 inches of baking powder crap snow. Lol.. there’s no question here or there. Not in anyone’s mind who knows what to look for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Oof - GFS is hideous statewide. Still keeps the heaviest totals in NW CT but is like 2" for Hartford/Tolland. I see no problem with it 5 plus here lol, yea that dry slot gonna hit someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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