CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The ship has sailed for the Thursday potential. All about the Tuesday night-Wed deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: The ship has sailed for the Thursday potential. All about the Tuesday night-Wed deal. Like so many threats over the years, one becomes the one. Kevin always picks the first one so this is probably a win for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I don't either, TT's been wonky this week Weathermodels.com shows almost an inch of qpf eastern NE. Nice warning event on GFS CMC for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Don't sleep on the front running wave. Those have some baroclinicity to work with. Agree....significant event still very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 46 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not really, different s/w spawning this one. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Like so many threats over the years, one becomes the one. Kevin always picks the first one so this is probably a win for him. I thought Wed or Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I think that lead wave was always the best chance. That's what we want to trend to a little developing low and mini CCB like this 00z op has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Which one are you referring to? I'm talking Wednesday's now. I see upside on that one and I may have undersold my 3-5". Yes. The Thursday low needs more help obviously now. But that front-runner has baroclinicity and could easily become a good event. I was mentioning this yesterday I think...sneaky tip critter that bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think that lead wave was always the best chance. That's what we want to trend to a little developing low and mini CCB like this 00z op has. What do you think ceiling is here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What do you think ceiling is here? 6-9? Not sure we can slow this down for really big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What do you think ceiling is here? 1’? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol LOL what? The Thursday storm is suppressed OTS now. There it is at 114hr well S and E of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. The Thursday low needs more help obviously now. But that front-runner has baroclinicity and could easily become a good event. I was mentioning this yesterday I think...sneaky tip critter that bites. Thursday is dead but apparently Ginx thinks its the same storm still in play. Wednesday has upside imo as there is some solid baroclinity that we can work with. Heights have been improving over the last 12hrs so it's a positive trend. Sharpen that just a bit more and we're looking at a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. The Thursday low needs more help obviously now. But that front-runner has baroclinicity and could easily become a good event. I was mentioning this yesterday I think...sneaky tip critter that bites. GFS looks good forTues,weds for Tolland to Worcester (I'm in between). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thursday is dead but apparently Ginx thinks its the same storm still in play. Wednesday has upside imo as there is some solid baroclinity that we can work with. Heights have been improving over the last 12hrs so it's a positive trend. Sharpen that just a bit more and we're looking at a warning event. Don't put words in my mouth lol. It's back was always the first sw, just because you keyed on something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6-9? Not sure we can slow this down for really big numbers. Yea, maybe like a Christmas deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, maybe like a Christmas deal. I'm not talking ratios either. Might be able to boost it by a couple if we have good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GEFS looks way better than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Mesoscale models WRF-nmm and ARF both show Ocean Effect snows lasting the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not talking ratios either. Might be able to boost it by a couple if we have good ratios. I could see like a general 6-12"...heaviest near CJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Man you guys have lived too well to look at 6-12 as pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man you guys have lived too well to look at 6-12 as pedestrian. Great point Jerry, I definitely don't think 6-12" is pedestrian, the GFS introduces rain for me on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man you guys have lived too well to look at 6-12 as pedestrian. I'd be fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Who said that's pedestrian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see like a general 6-12"...heaviest near CJ Been my range all along still not sleeping on more thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Crazed Unk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO not buying Tuesday night. Uh ? It shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Uh ? It shifted west My mistake....I was looking at the wrong window. Several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Wed AM is a 4-8" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My mistake....I was looking at the wrong window. Several inches. The 2nd wave is also further west but I think it's wave 1 that might give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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