Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 sorry .. are we talking about which system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Back to a coastal weeee, kind of a slow mover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 SECS incoming on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Days and days folks . We know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: sorry .. are we talking about which system? Well the thread is for OES and everything through Thursday but now we’re discussing a nice system late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Do any models show snow for SE RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 LOL, GFS is way too warm srfc further inland. WTF is wrong with that model and srfc temps in the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That's a cold look on the GFS for Wed. 925 are below 0c for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That track would argue for a better result for the SE Coast of MA and coastal region into the foothills up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah with those rates and 925 on up toss the above freezing to GC...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: LOL, GFS is way too warm srfc further inland. WTF is wrong with that model and srfc temps in the interior? Yeah, you'd have to think he 12z Wed 2m temps are about as warm as it would get but than it floods the interior after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, GFS is way too warm srfc further inland. WTF is wrong with that model and srfc temps in the interior? Yea. Verbatim 850's very cold. Couple that with the convection and you have dynamic cooling with snow falling down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Weird system. It's garbage at 500/250mb with an open wave that's trying to amplify a smidge... but you've got this baroclinic wave off NC that's just sort of sitting there and it gets drawn into the weak UL system and you wind up with a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Weird system. It's garbage at 500/250mb with an open wave that's trying to amplify a smidge... but you've got this baroclinic wave off NC that's just sort of sitting there and it gets drawn into the weak UL system and you wind up with a decent storm. I joked the other day, but it's basically a little low level theta-e bastard helping to fuel things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: This could be a pretty good event. There's some good things going with it. Nice baroclinic zone, the snow growth region is pretty deep on a lot of the soundings I looked at, and there is prob going to be some LL convergence/CF enhancement as well off the coastline. Id watch for solid warning snow potential outside of 128 and esp along the 495 belt down toward 84 through CT Agree. Watch for a mini 12-13-07 traffic debacle Wed AM if folks dont use their heads. This is going to catch some off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If the 12z GFS track verbatim were to verify, many would be happy, including a good 50% of that area showing mostly rain. If I was on the coast, I'd keep that run. I'd be much more concerned about the steady nw trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Weird system. It's garbage at 500/250mb with an open wave that's trying to amplify a smidge... but you've got this baroclinic wave off NC that's just sort of sitting there and it gets drawn into the weak UL system and you wind up with a decent storm. Going to up the forecast from 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Going to up the forecast from 2-4? Bob went 3-6 this morning I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Bob went 3-6 this morning I believe. Seems reasonable, maybe less far SE corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Seems reasonable, maybe less far SE corner. Yeah 1-3 for I-95. We'll probably have to bump things up this afternoon again. I'm off today so Josh is in charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, GFS is way too warm srfc further inland. WTF is wrong with that model and srfc temps in the interior? Its had frigid 850s, and tropical surface temps...awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I actually think snow growth will be sort of meh south of the Pike at least. This is all a warm advection bomb with the lift in the lowest 7 or 8kft of the atmosphere. The snow growth zone stays saturated around 650mb but most of the lift is super low as that wave of high theta e comes streaming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah 1-3 for I-95. We'll probably have to bump things up this afternoon again. I'm off today so Josh is in charge. I’d go 5-8” interior with local amounts to 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d go 5-8” interior with local amounts to 10” I wouldn't hate a 4-8" snow forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I actually think snow growth will be sort of meh south of the Pike at least. This is all a warm advection bomb with the lift in the lowest 7 or 8kft of the atmosphere. The snow growth zone stays saturated around 650mb but most of the lift is super low as that wave of high theta e comes streaming north. I hate when you punch us in the gut with meh snow growth...that’s usually the kiss of death to limit amounts and impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Reggie Extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z CMC looks like garage. Wednesday wave never gets going than it tries blowing up the follow-up wave. Skeptical of the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Reggie Extended Locally 0.8 - 1" LE. We don't sell. That's some really impressive forcing given the overall UL setup and jet structure. She may be small, but she's a fighter... Surface Frontogenesis ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 We were on the 4-8" train yesterday after the 12z EURO....its only gotten better from there . This looks like a fun little system for a lot of the forum outside the NW flow upslope region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I hear that often. Rarely happens Agreed. Jacks are usually north of us or southeast of us, we usually end up somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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