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Days and days of snow disco


Damage In Tolland

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8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Not sure if I can trust the Euro anymore. It has been terrible.

Whatever they did to that model when they updated it two years ago...they need to go back and reverse it back to the way it was pre upgrade!

 

They ruined that model totally.  Total shame.  That thing jumps all over now like the American guidance.  The Euro used to be able to sniff a storm out at 5 days and in many cases keep it on modeling run after run...when the Euro did that, you knew it was coming...no matter what any other guidance said.  Obviously it wasn’t infallible, but it was so much better than it is now.  Those days are gone.  

Talk about leaving well enough alone...

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Kevin nailed the flurries well inland today

why is it that the snow growth is always good for flurries when the rh is low and there is only enough moisture for a few flakes but that snow growth is so often terrible when things are saturated with great gobs of moisture coming in aloft from the south and east??

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This could be a pretty good event. There's some good things going with it. Nice baroclinic zone, the snow growth region is pretty deep on a lot of the soundings I looked at, and there is prob going to be some LL convergence/CF enhancement as well off the coastline. 

Id watch for solid warning snow potential outside of 128 and esp along the 495 belt down toward 84 through CT

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This could be a pretty good event. There's some good things going with it. Nice baroclinic zone, the snow growth region is pretty deep on a lot of the soundings I looked at, and there is prob going to be some LL convergence/CF enhancement as well off the coastline. 

Id watch for solid warning snow potential outside of 128 and esp along the 495 belt down toward 84 through CT

 

This looks like a very solid snowstorm away from any coastlines. Can’t understabd the pessimism from some people in here 

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45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Didn’t see this posted already.  

 

 

DCCE9444-3594-45C7-BD0B-3BAA47813AA3.jpeg

Not a bad map at this hr. I think the broadly lower numbers in SE NE are a good hedge for a system that continues to trend stronger and further NW with time. Can't rule this out running over the Cape imo, (though it's a low risk at this point). That said, if she winds up faster, perhaps we see more of an east/west gradient in southern locations, giving a boost to the lower numbers in southern CT.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like a very solid snowstorm away from any coastlines. Can’t understabd the pessimism from some people in here 

Mostly SE folks...can understand the pessimism there. Could be BL issues but I also wouldn't be shocked at a total paste job there either...esp over interior SE MA. 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I didn’t either.... just the usual meh from Hubb... but he looks to do well of course.

Im not be pessimistic here... but it looks wet or at least sloppy. Can’t win em all 

Euro looks maybe a little warm there but all other guidance keeps you below 0C at 950mb which means it's prob gonna be paste snow there. Euro is prob a little too happy with that CF advancement. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mostly SE folks...can understand the pessimism there. Could be BL issues but I also wouldn't be shocked at a total paste job there either...esp over interior SE MA. 

Based on the pattern after this week, my suggestion would be for folks to enjoy any and all snow they get these next 3-4 days. Feb is a long ways away 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The euro is the warmest by far. It even probably taints into interior MA based on 925. Part of me sells that. I'm guessing near BOS and immediate S and SW probably get some paste.  Maybe the euro will be correct, but I'd hedge a little colder.

Yeah it's not tainting out to 495. Sell that. 

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