40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:37 PM, JC-CT said: lol sorry I thought he was quoting Brett. My b Expand It's all good. Maybe he was..I read quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Meanwhile the canadian hires has been getting more bullish every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 For marginal areas like Boston it’s all about rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:42 PM, weathafella said: For marginal areas like Boston it’s all about rates. Expand I think Boston is good for 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:02 PM, Ginx snewx said: I see its already snowing at SR Expand A little pre, Or some upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:32 PM, DomNH said: Yeah this is a pretty vanilla 4-8 forecast around here. Just high impact because of timing. Expand Not a fan of that low end for a good chunk of SNH. Is any model outputting 0.4" or less of LE? We snow for about 20 hrs. Hard to envision anything less than 6" where better lift sets up and ratios conservatively at 12:1. I think 6-10" in a band from Manchester/Nashua up to Rochester/Portsmouth. Outside of that 4-7" sounds like a good bet. Most common number across the Southern part of the state will be around 7", imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 uncle looks ok. Maybe cut back some over sne. waiting for temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:52 PM, jbenedet said: Not a fan of that low end for a good chunk of SNH. Is any model outputting 0.4" or less of LE? We snow for about 20 hrs. Hard to envision anything less than 6" where better lift sets up and ratios conservatively at 12:1. I think 6-10" in a band from Manchester/Nashua up to Rochester/Portsmouth. Outside of that 4-7" sounds like a good bet. Most common number across the Southern part of the state will be around 7", imo. Expand Not that it really matters but the GFS is. I'd assume somewhere near like .5-.6'' of LE with pedestrian ratios which is where I'm seeing 4-8''. I don't see ratios being anything special with the best lift probably underneath the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:39 PM, JC-CT said: Meanwhile the canadian hires has been getting more bullish every run. Expand It’s very warm, all rain se of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s very warm, all rain se of 84. Expand Yeah. With the combination of temp and qpf flags, I'm leaning towards the low end of the numbers being tossed around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:27 PM, JC-CT said: A broken clock is right twice a day. Expand Meh.... you can’t seriously tell me this setup looks good south of Boston. Even if it were cold enough, the best dynamics look well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GYX upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings up here from a WWA, Upped amounts slightly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s very warm, all rain se of 84. Expand ouch, yeah hopefully that one is not right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Meh.... you can’t seriously tell me this setup looks good south of Boston. Expand When did I tell you that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS is surprisingly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On and off very light snow at work this morning... Thinking 4 to 8 is a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Is scooter still high on the super swiss cheese model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:02 PM, DomNH said: Not that it really matters but the GFS is. I'd assume somewhere near like .5-.6'' of LE with pedestrian ratios which is where I'm seeing 4-8''. I don't see ratios being anything special with the best lift probably underneath the DGZ. Expand Not unreasonable. But can't help but notice all recent guidance pushing some of the best banding right through our area. I think there will be a short period of heavy snow with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I wouldnt have an ounce of worry if it wasn’t for 925 area. PITA. I would be conservative south of Boston because of that. It’s too bad because marine flow isn’t really an issue with such light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:16 PM, Spanks45 said: ouch, yeah hopefully that one is not right.... Expand Doubt it. too many models popping out from the bushes thesedays. I’ll stick to a euro/rgem combo with a splash of gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:17 PM, weathafella said: GFS is surprisingly cold. Expand GFS developes the coastal a little earlier and scrapes Nantucket instead of going right ove cape. It's a little like the Euro, not amped so much. We'll see what the 1:00 PM Euro shows. The Mesos are too amped for some reason will this particular flow. I will take a guess that it won't be as amped as the NAM, UKMET or Reggie but simliar or slightly more amped than the GFS. It will take the better forcing further southeast. In other words, I think the more tame solutions will win out but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:30 PM, WthrJunkyME said: Stay classy. Expand He's obsessed with Trump Looking like our outside RT 128 Rt 84 SNE classic storm. Messy mix south and east. Someone gets lucky playing naked twister with a coastal front. Think models overdoing LL warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:21 PM, JC-CT said: Is scooter still high on the super swiss cheese model? Expand Well since it keeps me all snow. We high. I dunno...tricky setup. It does do well with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I don't think anyone in here would sell the HRRR. Really good look out to 18 hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Well since it keeps me all snow. We high. I dunno...tricky setup. It does do well with temps. Expand Well either it is our new go-to model for temps, or it is going to bust massively too cold on this one. 6z didn't bring the rain line even up to Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:29 PM, jbenedet said: I don't think anyone in here would sell the HRRR. Really good look out to 18 hr... Expand Yeah it does look nice...I wish it was reliable past 6 hours though. I remember how bad it barfed on itself with the Xmas storm past 6 hours...it was almost dryslotting E MA and giving this huge 10-12" jack out in W CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 MEX still solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:29 PM, jbenedet said: I don't think anyone in here would sell the HRRR. Really good look out to 18 hr... Expand I would sell. RAP out to 21 looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The main reason why the trajectory of the precip shield is not going from southwest to northeast but instead south southwest to north northeast is because of a little annoying wedge high pressure just to the northeast of the cape. If that was not there or could get out sooner, the precip shield wouldsink southeast sooner than stay in a more of a seperate southwest to northeast orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Boston tv mets downplaying totals now ,saying warmer air wins out further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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