Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Modeling is all over the place, but they all show various areas of snow in SNE as early as Monday and Tuesday before the coastal on Wednesday. Lots to sort thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Congrats Abington MA in interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 2:53 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Congrats Abington MA in interior SE MA. Expand It's basically OES with coastal front enhancement. Sometimes these have two max zones. One near the CF and the other with the OES itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 2:59 PM, CoastalWx said: It's basically OES with coastal front enhancement. Sometimes these have two max zones. One near the CF and the other with the OES itself. Expand Yeah, while not huge, will be an interesting setup to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 GFS has a good burst of snow moving through. More robust at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Other than that, euro is probably gonna fail here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 4:06 PM, CoastalWx said: Other than that, euro is probably gonna fail here. Expand Meaning no coastal at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 4:17 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Meaning no coastal at all? Expand I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea? There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said: I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea? There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite. Expand I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 5:47 PM, jbenedet said: I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now. Expand Yeah I’m not ruling it out, but I think the bullish solutions from yesterday may be tough to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ain't happening. Euro backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Looks like Euro is backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Def going with the advisory event idea on the first sfc wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Trough does look pretty good at 114 though. Wouldn't take much to back that sucker in. We're still a ways out...seems like we've been tracking this for days and I'm talking about a 114 hour panel. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:19 PM, ORH_wxman said: Def going with the advisory event idea on the first sfc wave. Expand Tue or Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Tue or Wed? Expand Wed morning. Starts predawn this run. Maybe like midnight your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Seems to have dampened out the energy in the Plains it had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 FWIW, 12z NAVGEM has a slow-moving coastal storm that snows 24-36 hrs across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:32 PM, TheCloser24 said: FWIW, 12z NAVGEM has a slow-moving coastal storm that snows 24-36 hrs across New England. Expand Possible red flag for more impactful solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. Expand Agreed. I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out. I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. Expand Agree. Not suprised to see Euro cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:37 PM, jbenedet said: Agreed. I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out. I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above. Expand PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 NAVGEM is a ton of snow. Consolidates the energy but the low itself is not huge intensity wise. Just a ton of qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Falling AO/NAO good...but rising EPO/Falling PNA scream progessive/kicker...encroaching PAC Jet. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:41 PM, weathafella said: NAVGEM is a ton of snow. Consolidates the energy but the low itself is not huge intensity wise. Just a ton of qpf though. Expand Hope its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hope its right. Expand I’m still waiting for it to bring Sandy to Boston like it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:46 PM, CoastalWx said: I’m still waiting for it to bring Sandy to Boston like it had. Expand It was its bad boy reform school cousin NOGAPS then. Do I have to carry the burden fro, the sins of my relatives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO Expand We can agree to disagree on this aspect. Through day 3, the PNA ridge is sufficient to open the door for a PV lobe from the arctic, beyond that I want the east coast to work out. If the flow is slowed over the east coast we get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 6:53 PM, weathafella said: It was its bad boy reform school cousin NOGAPS then. Do I have to carry the burden fro, the sins of my relatives? Expand It’s a suck model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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