Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Modeling is all over the place, but they all show various areas of snow in SNE as early as Monday and Tuesday before the coastal on Wednesday. Lots to sort thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Congrats Abington MA in interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Congrats Abington MA in interior SE MA. It's basically OES with coastal front enhancement. Sometimes these have two max zones. One near the CF and the other with the OES itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's basically OES with coastal front enhancement. Sometimes these have two max zones. One near the CF and the other with the OES itself. Yeah, while not huge, will be an interesting setup to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 GFS has a good burst of snow moving through. More robust at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Other than that, euro is probably gonna fail here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Other than that, euro is probably gonna fail here. Meaning no coastal at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Meaning no coastal at all? I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea? There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea? There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite. I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now. Yeah I’m not ruling it out, but I think the bullish solutions from yesterday may be tough to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ain't happening. Euro backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Looks like Euro is backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Def going with the advisory event idea on the first sfc wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Trough does look pretty good at 114 though. Wouldn't take much to back that sucker in. We're still a ways out...seems like we've been tracking this for days and I'm talking about a 114 hour panel. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def going with the advisory event idea on the first sfc wave. Tue or Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tue or Wed? Wed morning. Starts predawn this run. Maybe like midnight your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Seems to have dampened out the energy in the Plains it had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 FWIW, 12z NAVGEM has a slow-moving coastal storm that snows 24-36 hrs across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, TheCloser24 said: FWIW, 12z NAVGEM has a slow-moving coastal storm that snows 24-36 hrs across New England. Possible red flag for more impactful solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. Agreed. I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out. I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. Agree. Not suprised to see Euro cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: Agreed. I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out. I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above. PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 NAVGEM is a ton of snow. Consolidates the energy but the low itself is not huge intensity wise. Just a ton of qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Falling AO/NAO good...but rising EPO/Falling PNA scream progessive/kicker...encroaching PAC Jet. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: NAVGEM is a ton of snow. Consolidates the energy but the low itself is not huge intensity wise. Just a ton of qpf though. Hope its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hope its right. I’m still waiting for it to bring Sandy to Boston like it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m still waiting for it to bring Sandy to Boston like it had. It was its bad boy reform school cousin NOGAPS then. Do I have to carry the burden fro, the sins of my relatives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO We can agree to disagree on this aspect. Through day 3, the PNA ridge is sufficient to open the door for a PV lobe from the arctic, beyond that I want the east coast to work out. If the flow is slowed over the east coast we get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: It was its bad boy reform school cousin NOGAPS then. Do I have to carry the burden fro, the sins of my relatives? It’s a suck model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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