snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 New Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6Z NAM looks very similar to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Poimen said: 6Z NAM looks very similar to the EURO. Here's the NAM hour 84 10:1 snow map. It would still be snowing from Burlington to Rocky Mount, down to Fayetteville. So the finial totals would need to be increased south and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Most likely we're not going to get a big widespread event (..as everybody can conclude). But we can get a significant event whereas a few luck folks can get 3 or 4". If things can trend just a little bit better (QPF wise) we could see pockets of higher amounts. Still think the snow ratios will be higher than 10:1 once the snow starts and if it can continue to snow. Again we just need to see the precip amounts increase a little more for go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Thanks, Falls. Awfully quiet in here after some good runs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro run had the more dynamic look to it that you would like to see here, with the wave closing off at 500mb and an inverted surface trough through South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro run had the more dynamic look to it that you would like to see here, with the wave closing off at 500mb and an inverted surface trough through South Carolina. What's your honest thoughts/ excitement level at this point , for NC peeps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What's your honest thoughts/ excitement level at this point , for NC peeps? I'm fine with this type of system producing, but it has to dig hard into the base of the trough. Don't get the hard dig and/or too positive tilt with the trough and it's flurries. Proceeding with caution, but we have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, PGAWx said: Thanks, Falls. Awfully quiet in here after some good runs last night. Yeah, it's kind of strange how many folks are not commenting. Of course this could end up as a none event, but we also have a real possibility of getting a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 NAM seems a little more SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: NAM seems a little more SW Yep, at 45 it's a little sharper and SW. Lets see where it takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 This system could trend wetter over time IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Yep, at 45 it's a little sharper and SW. Lets see where it takes us. It's very wet over TN AR, juicy run incoming, for them atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Is it just doing NAM things? But looks like something lurking of Carolinas coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, it's kind of strange how many folks are not commenting. Of course this could end up as a none event, but we also have a real possibility of getting a few inches of snow. Just hard to get excited at all when you've gone 0 for the last 7 events where multiple models showed you getting something at one point, and this one is following the same fate. Hope my area can get something but models have called wolf too much and I've learned my lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 NAM slams TN, then goes poof! Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 And the NAM looks to be fizzling out quite quickly. Too quickly in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 But at 63 it still looks sharper and more SW. You would expect the precip to become more expansive for our areas once it crosses the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Less precip at hour 75. very strange in the since it looks like a better model run (sharper to the SW) but with less precip. It would take just a little tweaking to make this much better. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks good at end. Low forms off coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Wow! It really takes off after hour 75. Looks like a decent hit for central SC, NC to eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Wow! It really takes off after hour 75. Looks like a decent hit for central SC, NC to eastern NC. Yay! TN gets hammered, then CLT CAE east get slammed! We just rock in the snow dept! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 CLT looks to be just too west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 One of our lessons from the past, precip field is always more NW than modeled. If we get this type of development (as shown on the NAM), expect folks in western NC and even at Mack's location to see higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 26 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: And the NAM looks to be fizzling out quite quickly. Too quickly in my opinion. The NAM would be good for your location. Would start as rain but then change over to snow before it ended. with the storm developing off the coast, you could get some good rates before it ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The NAM would be good for your location. Would start as rain but then change over to snow before it ended. with the storm developing off the coast, you could get some good rates before it ended. He’ll declare a bust for hours and then get half a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: The NAM would be good for your location. Would start as rain but then change over to snow before it ended. with the storm developing off the coast, you could get some good rates before it ended. That last frame of the NAM run is about perfect for RDU to the east with the coastal low placement thatfar enough south, it would keep the snow going enough to change it from a dusting -2" type event to a 3-5" type event....if the NAM keeps that location in runs going further it will be a decent hit for central and interior eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: He’ll declare a bust for hours and then get half a foot For you guys its all about that lee side trough forming and well the models are not gonna be able to really key in on that kind of feature till maybe a day out.....so I wouldnt worry to much about how little it shows in this range for your area cause if the coastal pops and there is a lee side trough you guys will likely jackpot. These are all features the models will flip flop on a lot the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The NAM is a good look with the cutoff at 84hrs. That happened due to the trend SW w/ the incoming trough, allowing it to tilt netural and cutoff. If we see some increased trends in this direction, it could go from a nuisance 1 or 2 inch frontal/clipper type event to something more significant, as it will allow the coastal low to develop stronger/closer to shore and throw more moisture back. With the ridge over the west, wouldn't be surprised to see this trend in a favorable direction. Given the lack of a favorable Atlantic setup, however, it will likely be a quick hitter and prevent something major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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