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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Just now, Solak said:

crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 5m5 minutes ago

 
 

Energy transfer to the coastal low nearly complete at the surface.

DTxhOX0VQAADHui.jpg

Need it closer lol....or to move more N or NNE versus ENE....I really need the NAM 12K and RGEM to be right and we get hammered with 4-6" tonight that would be a major bust in our favor seeing how this morning we were worried we wouldnt even get 1". Been a long time since something like that has happened for us....which is why I will probably be 1-2" while 20 miles to my east they get 6" lol. 

Another little area of rotation right off ILM would love to see a meso low form and ride up Hwy 17 or the sounds...

pmsl.gif.806cada7402c558ac7c3050b25fe1d8c.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Also around 8" here in Durham and still coming down. Definitely going to be some 12" measurements in Orange County somewhere.

We’ve probably got over 3 now.  It’s snowing well, still.  We have a shot at 4, I think.  Hopefully, the band over us pivots like the HR shows instead of darting east like the radar is showing. :o

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3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Surface frontogenesis also highlights the baby coastal slp

sfnt.gif?1516226015166

If that tracks NE then the RGEM and NAM 12 were on to something, these are the little features the models just struggle with, could be a big thump for the eastern half if it gets going....especially over the IBX/OBX could get 6-12" Kitty hawk to Hatteras lol...Just once I want a storm to bust in our favor it seems like every time we "bust" its the other way.....

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21 minutes ago, jtgus said:

I've got alot more than the six they are showing for the area between Greensboro and Burlington

Snow.PNG

Measured here in Durham and we are at 9.75 near Southpoint.  Have heard from colleagues in Chapel Hill off Weaver Dairy (9.5) and Hillborough (10 inches).  Fun storm and still coming down.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We’ve probably got over 3 now.  It’s snowing well, still.  We have a shot at 4, I think.  Hopefully, the band over us pivots like the HR shows instead of darting east like the radar is showing. :o

Those last minute model adjustments to reduce totals just to the southeast of Raleigh were telling it seems. That sucks 

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This was a pretty impressive storm for the total coverage... Usually southern sliders have a rather narrow band of accumulating snow, this storm's "band" of accumulation stretched from Eastern Kentucky/TN all the way down to Extreme southern LA/MS over to Macon, GA.

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You guys should look at it like this:  Widre may seem negative, but it usually pays off wrt snow around here.  In any event, the issues he brings up are usually legitimate and present an opportunity for folks to address those concerns.  People are thinking them anyway.  Might as well evaluate whether or not they’re applicable and will impact the forecast.

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This is literally the most snow I've seen in a single event since January 3rd, 2002. That's 16 years and 2 weeks. There were a lot of misses in there. A lot.

Congrats man! And congrats to all the east side crew in NC! Getting it done this evening. A lot of your guys put a ton of time into this. Hell, I’ve known some of y’all for years and know the struggles chasing the great white storm.

Enjoy. Toast to ya!
Take a long ass Jeb walk tonight!


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Really need this area oright along the coast to take over and have a low track up it, that's what the Nam 12K had happen thus the 6-8" amounts it had over eastern NC tonight, it had the swirl off ILM take over and become the main vortex pumping up moisture over east NC after the better ratios have worked in.....its probably a long shot....but its all I got to hang my hopes on so I will take it otherwise we struggle to get 1-2". However we rarely see things trend/bust at the last moment to the good like you inland folks did with this storm....

9fnt.gif.07a40940e02a8859af79a594b785e438.gif

 

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