SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, uncjibble said: This thing has stalled 15-20 miles from me and hasn’t moved in the last hour. SE wake panic starting to rise back up... The radar returns have basically been in the same spot since 5am...very slowly crawling se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: don't worry. the latest HRRR sets up the best band right over Wake for 5-6 hours of rates at 1 inch or greater per hour. Look at radar. Its crashing SE now I know haha after the last snow hole debacle I’m conditioned to expect the worst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 RAH increasing totals. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 923 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level disturbance and associated arctic cold front will move through our region today. This will be followed bitter cold arctic high pressure tonight into Friday morning. A warm-up will begin Friday and extend into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 923 AM Wednesday... ...Winter Storm Warning for most of Central NC through 900 PM tonight... ...Winter Weather Advisory for the SE Coastal Plain (Wayne and Sampson through 900 PM... Review of some of the latest 06z to 12z model guidance is coming into collaboration(always a good thing as it increases confidence) with what we are seeing in satellite data of cooling cloud tops east of the mountains; a deeper more wrapped up mid/upper level system along with additional supportive evidence in observational/boots on the ground data of 2 inches already on the ground in the Triad and impressive-slowing moving snow band over the Piedmont, in an axis just east of the Triad and just west of the Triangle, extending from Troy to Siler City to Hillsborough to Roxboro/Oxford, that will likely produce snowfall rates locally up to 1 inch per hour. And let`s not overlook the deep moist cold snow sounding at GSO. All of which will supportive of wetter-snowier/slower/more robust system, with great set-up for CSI mesoscale banding across central NC Piedmont as suggestive by the 06z later this morning between 15 to 21z. This band will move slowly east throughout the remainder of the morning and afternoon hours, eventually shifting east and out of the area by the early evening. Given all the supporting evidence, will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8 inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2 across the far SE counties. Although slower than previous forecasts, due to the deeper more wrapped system, once precip develops, temps will cool into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NWS to the rescue to calm your fears .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 923 AM Wednesday... ...Winter Storm Warning for most of Central NC through 900 PM tonight... ...Winter Weather Advisory for the SE Coastal Plain (Wayne and Sampson through 900 PM... Review of some of the latest 06z to 12z model guidance is coming into collaboration(always a good thing as it increases confidence) with what we are seeing in satellite data of cooling cloud tops east of the mountains; a deeper more wrapped up mid/upper level system along with additional supportive evidence in observational/boots on the ground data of 2 inches already on the ground in the Triad and impressive-slowing moving snow band over the Piedmont, in an axis just east of the Triad and just west of the Triangle, extending from Troy to Siler City to Hillsborough to Roxboro/Oxford, that will likely produce snowfall rates locally up to 1 inch per hour. And let`s not overlook the deep moist cold snow sounding at GSO. All of which will supportive of wetter-snowier/slower/more robust system, with great set-up for CSI mesoscale banding across central NC Piedmont as suggestive by the 06z later this morning between 15 to 21z. This band will move slowly east throughout the remainder of the morning and afternoon hours, eventually shifting east and out of the area by the early evening. Given all the supporting evidence, will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8 inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2 across the far SE counties. Although slower than previous forecasts, due to the deeper more wrapped system, once precip develops, temps will cool into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 920 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018 NCZ010-025-026-040-041-076-171545- Lee NC-Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Warren NC- 920 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018 ..Accumulating Snow Will Spread East and Quickly Become Heavy across EASTERN CHATHAM...DURHAM...WAKE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES Through 1100 AM EST... At 920 AM EST, Doppler radar was indicating a band of accumulating snow moving east into eastern Chatham, Durham and Wake Counties. Steady accumulating snow has already begun in Durham and Pittsboro. The leading edge of snow has reached the RDU Airport, Sanford and Henderson. The snow will begin in downtown Raleigh by around 930 am as well as Louisburg and Wendell by around 10 am. The band will move very slowly resulting in a period of rapidly accumulating snow by late morning with 1 inch per hour snow accumulations likely. Snow is expected to continue to fall into the late afternoon hours. The heavy snow will result in rapid snow accumulations, poor visibility and deteriorating travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Pittsboro, Louisburg, Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Zebulon and Franklinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Brad panovich just put out another video. Said this is only just beginning for the charlotte area and showed a model where its supposed to snow until 5-6 PM. Somehow hes still only calling for 2-4 inches with isolated areas of 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 This thing is definately starting to pivot. Precip is more north to south here in the upstate through WNC http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GSP-N0Q-1-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, WarmNose said: This thin is definately starting to pivot. Precip is more north to south here in the upstate through WNC http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GSP-N0Q-1-48 yep and the moisture train will be cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Charotte is really going to take it in after this thing pivots. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: Brad panovich just put out another video. Said this is only just beginning for the charlotte area and showed a model where its supposed to snow until 5-6 PM. Somehow hes still only calling for 2-4 inches with isolated areas of 5-6. There’s already 2” in concord. Keeps up like this it’ll be more than 6” for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 12z NAM still continuing the trend of cranking up the QPF and moving the precip shield west. Yesterday this was supposed to end by noon here, now looking closer to 5-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Charotte is really going to take it in after this thing pivots. Congrats! fat flakes ripping, hrrr shows redevelopment and a comma head look this aft in the upstate and has it snowing here thru 7pm. sweet mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 You can really see the pivot well on KGSP radar over the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Hang in there, Wake County folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z NAM still continuing the trend of cranking up the QPF and moving the precip shield west. Yesterday this was supposed to end by noon here, now looking closer to 5-6pm. Sure does. I'm impressed how all he models have been ramping up QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 33 and heavy snow in Moncure. Both asphalt and concrete surfaces on my place are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yea you can see where it’s started to actually reverse fill back in towards the mountains and Asheville area. A lot of snow left with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 56 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: yeah its a combination of things and one of those is the ratios. THe Kuchera system is good but flawed. These systems love to over perform as well. the CHapel Hill area may be in that foot talk. They should be heavy for hours I wouldn’t mind that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: fat flakes ripping, hrrr shows redevelopment and a comma head look this aft in the upstate and has it snowing here thru 7pm. sweet mercy. Yes, hrrr shows redevelopment in the upstate that keeps us going longer in the southern piedmont....and I dropped to 32! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, SnowNiner said: Yes, hrrr shows redevelopment in the upstate that keeps us going monger in the southern piedmont....and I dropped to 32! Dewpoints are dropping. Already at 28 up here at the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Latest HRRR up to .75 for all of wake AND portions of wake toward the south are up to .9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 RAH update... Given all the supporting evidence, will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8 inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2 across the far SE counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Dewpoints are dropping. Already at 28 up here at the lake. So about that ultimatum of no snow before the end of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 If we get that upstate redevelopment watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Snow has begun just now in the far northeast Piedmont, and my surface temp quickly dropped back to 31. Will take to the obs thread, just wanted the system analysis folks to know that it has made it this far north and east. Good luck everybody! Interested to see how the enhanced area develops both for the central NC folk and for the coastal later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 23m23 minutes ago 9:25 AM update: Snow will gradually spread eastward across central NC this morning. A slow-moving heavy snow band with rapid accumulations is occurring just west of the US-1 corridor. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 The leading edge of the precip was supposed to be rain or a rain/snow mix. The fact that it's falling as snow will only help cool surfaces, which will help make surfaces better able to allow accumulation once the accumulating snow moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Will be interesting what new HRRR run shows. Last one had me getting another .5+ of qpf and the .75 was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 In W-S off Stratford Rd we have 3 inches and 26 degrees with moderate snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Will be interesting what new HRRR run shows. Last one had me getting another .5+ of qpf and the .75 was close. Ratios are only headed up from where they are now. I think we're going to make the most of the back end of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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