Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Hrrr is either really bad with temps, or clt is really not getting alot of snow. It has clt temp above freezing and rising throughout the day. According to the soundings, HRRR drops Charlotte below freezing between 12-13Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Hrrr is either really bad with temps, or clt is really not getting alot of snow. It has clt temp above freezing and rising throughout the day. Noticed this as well for Chapel Hill. The kuchera map is definitely less than the 10:1 ratio due to the warmer temps. Hoping it's a little off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 HRRR soundings show saturation into the snow growth region over the Triad until about 3 this afternoon. We should be able to maintain good rates through then, if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: According to the soundings, HRRR drops Charlotte below freezing between 12-13Z. Thanks, I was looking only at the map output. When is 12 z? 7 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Thanks, I was looking only at the map output. When is 12 z? 7 am? Yes, 7AM. Honestly, everything is breaking about how the NAM predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 Matt East reporting a mix at news 14 in south end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Yes, 7AM. Honestly, everything is breaking about how the NAM predicted. Is the event running later? I thought snow was suppose to start between midnight and 2 am? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, No snow for you said: Is the event running later? I thought snow was suppose to start between midnight and 2 am? Thanks At least for my back yard(and the metro area) it all seems on time for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Is the event running later? I thought snow was suppose to start between midnight and 2 am? Thanks Yes. It's because of the digging shortwave that is stronger and more neutrally tilted. Slowed things down by 3-4 hours and more precip as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Well my initial thought this morning is that the warmer sfc temp modeling is winning out. The cold push from west GA into E GA is usually similar to what happens in NC east of the mtns, with the upper savannah river valley and western upstate the last to get colder....but the cold push through GA has been faster than what's happened in NC east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Nice meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 HRRR looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: HRRR looks amazing. It drops .8 qpf across all of Wake. I bet it’s overdone a touch but yeah you have to like that look right at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, Poimen said: Hey Poimen. I live in Pine Knolls and was up at 4:45am. What rain are they talking about? All I'm aware we had was snow. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Precip area with mixing is slowly making its way eastward through the Triangle...most everyone outside the circled part, in the red/pink echoes is seeing all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 HRRR and RAP both seem to be underestimating the radar in the NW piedmont. Not sure if that has any affect on the overall qpf totals there, but I find it interesting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, Norwegian Cyclone said: Precip area with mixing is slowly making its way eastward through the Triangle...most everyone outside the circled part, in the red/pink echoes is seeing all snow... you have a link to access this radar? i've been looking for it for sometime. thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: HRRR looks amazing. I didn’t expect to see that by looking at the radar and earlier posts. That looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 37 minutes ago, griteater said: Well my initial thought this morning is that the warmer sfc temp modeling is winning out. The cold push from west GA into E GA is usually similar to what happens in NC east of the mtns, with the upper savannah river valley and western upstate the last to get colder....but the cold push through GA has been faster than what's happened in NC east of the mtns. Yeah, I'm still at 34 in cit. That's going to cut down accumulations until we can drop. Getting very worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, I'm still at 34 in cit. That's going to cut down accumulations until we can drop. Getting very worried about that. If it snows hard enough, surface temperatures can be overcome. Especially at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: you have a link to access this radar? i've been looking for it for sometime. thanks in advance I'm using the RadarScope app, but you can get the correlation coefficient mode via College of DuPage Nexlab as well: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-0-6 (you have to hover your mouse over the white tab on the left to access the various radar modes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NWS GSP just upgraded the WSW warning for several piedmont counties in NC (including Catawba) to 3-6 inches with higher amounts possible east of I-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, I'm still at 34 in cit. That's going to cut down accumulations until we can drop. Getting very worried about that. I do t know where in the city you are, but try looking outside. It’s snowing pretty good. I wouldn’t worry about being at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 The west to east progression of the back edge of the system has appeared to slow somewhat. This will allow totals to continue to pile up. It would also be nice if it were to tilt more N-S rather than NE-SW, but I don't see any evidence of this at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Snowing in Cary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The west to east progression of the back edge of the system has appeared to slow somewhat. This will allow totals to continue to pile up. It would also be nice if it were to tilt more N-S rather than NE-SW, but I don't see any evidence of this at this time. HRRR shows the system "hitching" between 12-2PM and going more neutral. Hence why HRRR dumps .8+ over Wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, VBsurf said: Does anybody have any more information about any coastal enhancement later this evening? Winter storm warning is up for the Outer Banks down to Hatteras. Wondering any potential surprise impacts up in Virginia Beach. I'm curious as well since I live on the OBX. Is this a Miller B setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, alhooks13 said: I'm curious as well since I live on the OBX. Is this a Miller B setup? Basically as the trough goes neutral tilt the High res models have picked up on a weak surface low popping off the coast. this leads to extra qpf pumping into the coastal regions. I guess its a miller B setup but its a very weak surface low and it pops late. But if high res is right some coastal regions could see a quick couple hours of good snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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