Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 36 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Because it is the way it is round here. Not till if falls with a good radar fetch will the simmer down now happen . People that take this to heart need to get their heads out of their butts and look at the radar. Look at the temps from nearby weather stations and the Wetbulbs/Dewpoints. I have not seen such a great setup in MANY years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Is the trough orientation tilted in a way that the snow runs into the eastern facing slopes causing essentialy the opposite of a NW flow event? That's what the latest HRRR looks like. It just pukes snow for hours and hours into the Lee. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this tilted in a way that feeds moisture there. That is a good thing if you like snow in NC. Still 1-2 upstate SC. Kuchera ratios for your upstate SC are around 10-12:1 on pivotal Nam 3K at 10 a.m.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said: People that take this to heart need to get their heads out of their butts and look at the radar. Look at the temps from nearby weather stations and the Wetbulbs/Dewpoints. I have not seen such a great setup in MANY years. Temps in the upper 30s and no cold high pressure already in place? How is that a great setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Temps in the upper 30s and no cold high pressure already in place? How is that a great setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 That North Alabama band is just going absolutely bonkers!! And temps in that region are like 10-15 degrees. That’s a good snow band at any ratios, but with what there’s is right now I’m sure it’s a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: Concerned for ATL. The hole in moisture doesnt seem to be giving up. not sure what radar you are looking at but to me ATL looks to be a great spot. the radar is blossoming west and southwest of ATL over the past hours and should continue to do so overnight. in fact, i think this over performs in the city and most places get closer to 2 inches than 1 inch. check out roberts post on fbook discussing sw to ne flow of the precip expanding rapidly over the next few hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Is the trough orientation tilted in a way that the snow runs into the eastern facing slopes causing essentialy the opposite of a NW flow event? That's what the latest HRRR looks like. It just pukes snow for hours and hours into the Lee. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this My take is that it is more frontogenesis related. It's the packing of the isotherms as the cold air from the NW runs into the upstate warm bubble. Frontogenesis causes lift, wringing out the moisture. The 850mb flow is out of the SW in this system so it's not running directly into the southern mountains out of the SE like a developed gulf low (and 850mb low)...it's also why there is no warm nosing aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: Temps in the upper 30s and no cold high pressure already in place? How is that a great setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 My phone radar says it is snowing a bit north of Pensacola, FL now. I sure hope some sticks so we can have snow on the ground in all 50 states for the books! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: not sure what radar you are looking at but to me ATL looks to be a great spot. the radar is blossoming west and southwest of ATL over the past hours and should continue to do so overnight. in fact, i think this over performs in the city and most places get closer to 2 inches than 1 inch. check out roberts post on fbook discussing sw to ne flow of the precip expanding rapidly over the next few hours..... Alright, thanks! Do you mind letting me know who Robert is? I'm an amateur on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: Alright, thanks! Do you mind letting me know who Robert is? I'm an amateur on here. sure! he is the best meteorologist i know. You can follow him on fbook at wxsouth I will add. ATL looks good to me, but south of town looks even better, I think somewhere in a lagrange to columbus to mcdonough to conyers region could push 3 inches. That stuff moving through montgomery right now has to be laying it down pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 3:15 PM, griteater said: My forecast is John Fox football conservative, but it's what I believe for now. There is no way to accurately predict localized snow maxes. My map above was from Monday aftn. Here's my updated final call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: Alright, thanks! Do you mind letting me know who Robert is? I'm an amateur on here. Robert Gamble, WxSouth has a paid site, well worth the $$$ wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, chapelhill said: My phone radar says it is snowing a bit north of Pensacola, FL now. I sure hope some sticks so we can have snow on the ground in all 50 states for the books! It’s 35 in Pensacola proper and they’re under a WWA, so I wouldn’t doubt it. I believe that’s the third time that area has seen flakes this season, which is pretty crazy. Not too far off from snow here in Tallahassee, either, but it looks like we’re not going to get any moisture. Thomasville, GA, which is about 45 minutes north of here, may get a little something. They got 1” during the storm a couple weeks ago, too. Looks like we might not break 40 tomorrow, which is pretty notable in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 33/25. Just need the moisture and those cold 850s that are finally making it across the mtns to come on in now. Currently snowing mod to heavy all mtn counties, haven't checked Buncombe. Just started in earnest in Boone. Joe and Met report wind really has picked up. So things are on the move. Radar should blossom off to our SW over next few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: My map above was from Monday aftn. Here's my updated final call map. looks good bud! I will definitely be busting out the ol measuring stick for this one and letting you know how you do... I'd be inclined to agree based off modeled returns for my area but everyone would just think I was wish casting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Ukie is further west with the precip. .30 getting all the way back in the foothills, .40'' a little west of I-77 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yep, UKMet has increased precip in central and western areas. 1st image is newest run, then previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 That’s a pretty wide swath of 4-8” on either side of I-85 for central NC and upstate SC on the UKMet. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 The qpf field is really starting to expand between Birmingham and Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Nice teardrop closed contour at 500mb on the UKMet....god we have somehow lucked out with these trends the last 2 days...now it's go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Nice teardrop closed contour at 500mb on the UKMet....god we have somehow lucked out with these trends the last 2 days...now it's go time Didn't like seeing that dryslot over between 95 and 17 but hey can't win them all and we scored on the jan 3rd storm so I hope you guys score on this one. The hi res models have improved for me tonight so maybe that trend keeps up at 6z runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Radar is blossoming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 New Euro coming in looks a lot like the UKMet precip image. It still has the relative bullseye from Pinehurst to GSO to RDU...but this overall max area has expanded west and southwest to include Charlotte to Winston...and eastern upstate into north central SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Euro also increased amounts in NE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro also increased amounts in NE GA North any towards N.Foothills with more precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: North any towards N.Foothills with more precip? Looks like a slight increase for you frost man....I'll post a map or 2 when it comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Looks like a slight increase for you frost man....I'll post a map or 2 when it comes out Ok, Thanks Grit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Euro Kuchera...1st image is current run, then previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Ha, the Euro map has a spurious 11 inches over the spurious complainer's house...Widre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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