shahroz98 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Can a cold front like the one depicted stall out and create a weak low in this situation ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! When the extended/extrapolated NAM is your only hope...... hit the lights Not true at all... it’s been upgraded and performs quite well in the extended range now. It led the way last storm while the globals didn’t figure it out until 48 hours or less from the start of the event. That’s an old statement which no longer applies to the nam anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Can a cold front like the one depicted stall out and create a weak low in this situation ? Absolutely if the upper levels support it, though I would say 'slow down' instead of 'stall out' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Not feeling this one at all. GEFS has flurries or nothing for everybody. Cold air wasted. Bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18Z GFS actually better for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The one positive thing about today, the 18z NAM and GFS both trended in the right direction. Maybe it continues on the next subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nothing much has been said about it but there's going to be Boundary Layer issues in Central NC with this system. Count on it. Especially if the S/W keeps trending SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: Not feeling this one at all. GEFS has flurries or nothing for everybody. Cold air wasted. Bring on Spring! You know I have to agree, tired of wasting the cold air, bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 40 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Nothing much has been said about it but there's going to be Boundary Layer issues in Central NC with this system. Count on it. Especially if the S/W keeps trending SW. I am already assuming that the cold air won't get here in time for the precip. Seeing anything frozen will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, Tacoma said: You know I have to agree, tired of wasting the cold air, bring on spring. For me, cold air is never wasted. I love cold just as much as snow snow itself. For me, this past cold snap was the equivalent of a 20" Carolina crusher. Seeing the ponds freeze over, and my weather station hit 0 F, and seeing RDU break the aob freezing record are memories I will cherish for years to come. And at the end I got a little 2" event which stuck around for several days in full sun. That was just icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 CMC and GFS both trending up to 1" now north of i40 around Wilkes. Other towns include Boone, Sparta and Elkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It seems NWS Birmingham is more concerned about snow tuesday than NWS Atlanta is. Is it gonna be drier and/or warmer in North GA than AL? What will the orientation of the front be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, mrdaddyman said: Nothing much has been said about it but there's going to be Boundary Layer issues in Central NC with this system. Count on it. Especially if the S/W keeps trending SW. Based on what? Soundings are all snow and surface is 32-34 when precip starts. Maybe in Eastern NC but not central as it stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Call me an eternal optimist but not ready to throw in the towel on this one just yet for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'll await the NAM diagnosis for about 36hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'm not ready to throw in the towel either. At the very least I think we get a nuisance type event with minor issues... But I remain concerned about how long it takes to changeover and QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 There's so much energy in the upper levels, most of us in NC should at least see a flizzard IMO. Where temps support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: It seems NWS Birmingham is more concerned about snow tuesday than NWS Atlanta is. Is it gonna be drier and/or warmer in North GA than AL? What will the orientation of the front be? Its mostly frontal induced so because of the downslope GA or ATL does not do as well in a setup like this like AR/N LA/MS does. What can happen though is that a surface reflection forms in the Gulf or really anywhere in SRN MS/AL. This can cause an influx of moisture as SE flow can develop as a result of the surface reflection. It does not even need to be strong. I've seen this happen before in these setups across OK or N TX where a weak low forms over S TX and a influx produces a bigger snow than expected. OK had a 12-20 inch snow in 2003 because of this when the forecast was maybe 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, mrdaddyman said: Nothing much has been said about it but there's going to be Boundary Layer issues in Central NC with this system. Count on it. Especially if the S/W keeps trending SW. 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'm not ready to throw in the towel either. At the very least I think we get a nuisance type event with minor issues... But I remain concerned about how long it takes to changeover and QPF. Sounding here on the 18z GFS is from the middle of Wake County as precip begins at 1AM Wed. The near surface warmth is limited. Surface wet bulb is 33-34. So, it starts as all snow or a rain/snow mix, but would quickly go over to all snow with any meaningful precip....and profiles would be getting colder thru the 'storm.' I know it's pretty standard to have temperature concerns in the CLT to RDU corridor, but the model data doesn't support much in the way of temperature concerns at the moment. QPF concerns, well, those are warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 So arkansas might do well from this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Anyone seen the powerhouse combo of the 18Z ICON/NAVGEM? Keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Poimen said: Anyone seen the powerhouse combo of the 18Z ICON/NAVGEM? Keeping hope alive. We're busy hanging our hat on the long range NAM...it's the best we got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 A glimmer of hope on the 21Z SREFS, albeit out of their range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: We're busy hanging our hat on the long range NAM...it's the best we got You're a heck of a straight shooter grit, but your dry humor is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A glimmer of hope on the 21Z SREFS, albeit out of their range I feel slimy posting the SREF at all, much less hr87, but here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 NAM out to 30 looks decent so far. Trough dropping down over the upper midwest is a tad SW and W Canada ridge is a little taller and breaking east a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM out to 30 looks decent so far. Trough dropping down over the upper midwest is a tad SW and W Canada ridge is a little taller and breaking east a little more Yeah, so far its looking slightly better than the last run. Lets keep up the trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, griteater said: We're busy hanging our hat on the long range NAM...it's the best we got As far as I'm concerned it's king until another model dethrones it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 NAM out to 54 is a little slower and a little farther SW with the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 47 minutes ago, Poimen said: Anyone seen the powerhouse combo of the 18Z ICON/NAVGEM? Keeping hope alive. NAVGEM wasn’t great but some light qpf in western and Central NC. German was much better and similar to its 12z run. Widespread dusting to 2” across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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