griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I just had a flashback to Jan 2017. Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount? I hope it wasn't the HRRR. Different concern in that case though. That was elevated warm nose warmth. Only warmth in this system is the initial sfc based boundary layer warmth, which by comparison is easier to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: It was the 3km and 12km NAM. The NAM is money with warm noses. It shows none here so we are good. Normal panic before the storm starts, people need to relax here. It's widespread panic in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I just had a flashback to Jan 2017. Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount? I hope it wasn't the HRRR. We don't have a warm nose situation at all, so that's irrelevant. Anyways, NAM would have picked it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Isohume and the gang just pulled trigger! WSW! Yes DAAAAANG....They have me in the top end of 7" and a low end of 4". WOWZERS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: It's widespread panic in here Yes and happens every storm too. A widespread 3-6” snow is about to start for most of NC and people are using 18hr HRRR temp maps as if they’re accurate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I’m more concerned about the qpf verifying. We’ve fallen to 31.5 here in Colfax. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Different concern in that case though. That was elevated warm nose warmth. Only warmth in this system is the initial sfc based boundary layer warmth, which by comparison is easier to overcome It’s the best snow column we’ve seen in years. No idea why the panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: It's widespread panic in here It's cute, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 It’s the best snow column we’ve seen in years. No idea why the panic.Because it is the way it is round here. Not till if falls with a good radar fetch will the simmer down now happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 BL temps usually aren’t an issue so long as rates are decent. Warm mid-levels, on the other hand...but that doesn’t look like an issue. Also, I don’t think the HRRR at the end of its run is worth panicking over. I’d be more worried about precip than temps for central NC (not that precip looks likely to be an issue). Maybe this is the year Raleigh breaks the snow curse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 WRAL's futurecast showing snow in Wake by 9AM...delayed slightly just like RAH was saying...but shows heavy rates over the area. They are calling 3-4 for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It’s the best snow column we’ve seen in years. No idea why the panic. S.O.P= widre, 11'oclock hour eve of SEHS. While he sits in the bullseye every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Meanwhile I'm already at 28 and there is snow banding probably mostly virga but is growing returns not far to my west on radar along the north border of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 850's are fine. Moisture will bring down the Arctic air in the upper atmosphere to get everyone below freezing and if not then you will still get snow at 35. This system supports snow above freezing. Everyone relax. Deep breaths. It's been a while, I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: 850's are fine. Moisture will bring down the Arctic air in the upper atmosphere to get everyone below freezing and if not then you will still get snow at 35. This system supports snow above freezing. Everyone relax. Deep breaths. It's been a while, I know Don't really care about watching mixed snow fall and not accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Alright. Who's staying up for the 0z euro! Oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Canadian still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Looks like Atlanta is going to get the mysterious snow hole that Birmingham got all day. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Touchet said: Looks like Atlanta is going to get the mysterious snow hole that Birmingham got all day. Good luck. RDU sympathizes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Touchet said: Looks like Atlanta is going to get the mysterious snow hole that Birmingham got all day. Good luck. Birmingham getting pummeled right now. It will work it’s way through ATL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Don't really care about watching mixed snow fall and not accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Image is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Is the trough orientation tilted in a way that the snow runs into the eastern facing slopes causing essentialy the opposite of a NW flow event? That's what the latest HRRR looks like. It just pukes snow for hours and hours into the Lee. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Bufkit data from the NAM showing ratios as high as 21:1 in Athens in the morning, with almost an inch falling in just that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 58 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: B rad upping totals, back peddling ! Great work as usual! CJ had his 9 pm update and said we would wake up to dusting to maybe 1" , lol I don't blame JC and CJ ONE bit for being conservative. They have been blasted in the past for being too aggressive and busting (and by YOU no less) so why wouldn't they be conservative, especially with a system that has looked anemic in our area up until the last 12 hours. And who's to say they won't end up being right? I think they did just fine with this one. As for KK, I agree she tends to be overly conservative, but she also happens to be the most accurate many times for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Is the trough orientation tilted in a way that the snow runs into the eastern facing slopes causing essentialy the opposite of a NW flow event? That's what the latest HRRR looks like. It just pukes snow for hours and hours into the Lee. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this It's the way the upper level vort is traversing the mountains. It's creating a Lee side low where precip just explodes right at the Lee and then tracks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I gotta admit I’m liking the timing of this for the triangle. Wake up, have coffee, wait for the snow. Looking like a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Concerned for ATL. The hole in moisture doesnt seem to be giving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: I gotta admit I’m liking the timing of this for the triangle. Wake up, have coffee, wait for the snow. Looking like a great day. What about those of us who have to work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: What about those of us who have to work? My office is already closed for tomorrow, so it's a win for me no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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