thess Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:36 AM, wake4est said: Rah goes up again Expand Could anyone provide a direct link to this particular product? The map portions are always blurry and pixelated once they're embedded in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am. It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 The HRRR tends to be overamped in its long range, I think, so keep that in mind. It may be too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 18z GFS 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Greenville County (SC) schools closed tomorrow (they were planning to decide tomorrow AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:41 AM, thess said: Could anyone provide a direct link to this particular product? The map portions are always blurry and pixelated once they're embedded in the forum. Expand Facebook or twitter or the NWS website http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4" for clt on the gfs. up from 2.9 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:41 AM, thess said: Could anyone provide a direct link to this particular product? The map portions are always blurry and pixelated once they're embedded in the forum. Expand It's from their weather hazard briefing: http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf Edit: better versions of their snow maps here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:41 AM, burrel2 said: I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am. It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. Expand Pulling for y’all. Go get them. Seems like HRRR matches up well with other guidance QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:38 AM, mrdaddyman said: Yeah. I'm questioning the validity of the HRRR out that far. Also, those of us, myself included that are worried about boundary layer temps really don't need to look at the latest run because it's seriously warm for central NC. Expand Yeah those HRRR frames for 2m air temp out to the end of the run look off. Almost like its just some normal daytime heating scale. Weird. Could be the southerly fetch as the upper level vortex approaches I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:42 AM, drfranklin said: Greenville County (SC) schools closed tomorrow (they were planning to decide tomorrow AM) Expand Please don't let this be a jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:41 AM, burrel2 said: I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am. It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. Expand Don't worry about it...you've earned it Have to pause to appreciate how wideapread this system is. Its been a while since just about everyone gets something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:44 AM, DopplerWx said: 4" for clt on the gfs. up from 2.9 at 18z. Expand At just 10:1. You average 15:1 and that four tenths is 7.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:41 AM, burrel2 said: I hate to weenie out too bad, but the Hrrr is just crushing mby from 5am to 10am. It's now got solid 3 to 4 inches total for all of Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville counties. Hell dude, I’m right with ya. Weenie on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:45 AM, Jet Stream Rider said: Yeah those HRRR frames for 2m air temp out to the end of the run look off. Almost like its just some normal daytime heating scale. Weird. Could be the southerly fetch as the upper level vortex approaches I guess. Expand Except winds are from the north most of the event. I honestly can't fathom why it shows rising temps with 0.1"+ liquid per hour rates and a northerly wind from a cold high building in as a lobe of very cold arctic air. It boggles the mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Good precip development continues in the Deep South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 storms like this make this hobby worth it, an awesome storm that gives most everyone some love. gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:47 AM, WidreMann said: Except winds are from the north most of the event. I honestly can't fathom why it shows rising temps with 0.1"+ liquid per hour rates and a northerly wind from a cold high building in as a lobe of very cold arctic air. It boggles the mind. Expand Between hr 11 and 12 it jumps up in eastern NC and even goes into the 40s after another few hours for some- they may be east of the cold air still, but it still seems too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:38 AM, WidreMann said: It's a fight between the HRRR/RAP and everything else. Honestly, I'm not sure where to go with this. 00z GFS/NAM/NAM4K held serve and have shown higher precip, colder temps and haven't adjusted the timing much. Usually in these kinds of situations, I expect precip to arrive earlier than expected. But this isn't a normal overrunning event, so I'm not sure. Expand Never trust HRRR or RAP outside 8 hours. They’re useful under 10 hours but past that they’re prone to being way off with qpf and especially thermals on the HRRR. 3km NAM and RGEM is preferred at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:53 AM, Jet Stream Rider said: Between hr 11 and 12 it jumps up in eastern NC and even goes into the 40s for some- they may be east of the cold air still, but it still seems too much. Expand Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:54 AM, snowlover91 said: Never trust HRRR or RAP outside 8 hours. They’re useful under 10 hours but past that they’re prone to being way off with qpf and especially thermals on the HRRR. 3km NAM and RGEM is preferred at this range. Expand Unfortunately, RGEM is now also showing the warming, albeit not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 For those in the triad area Ratios Per BUFKIT mainly 14:1 and as high as 19:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:55 AM, WidreMann said: Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming. Expand It won’t be. Hrrr is terrible with thermals and especially bad when past 8-10 hours. Trust 3km NAM and RGEM for thermals they are money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:47 AM, WidreMann said: Except winds are from the north most of the event. I honestly can't fathom why it shows rising temps with 0.1"+ liquid per hour rates and a northerly wind from a cold high building in as a lobe of very cold arctic air. It boggles the mind. Expand I just had a flashback to Jan 2017. Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount? I hope it wasn't the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:55 AM, WidreMann said: Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming. Expand They won't be warming... we've seen this with just about every winter storm on the Hrr. It definitely has a surface warm bias in the 12 to 18hr time range. Honestly, this will give you the best indicator of the battle lines 9 times out of 10: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:56 AM, cbmclean said: I just had a flashback to Jan 2017. Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount? I hope it wasn't the HRRR. Expand I'm almost positive it was the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:48 AM, Norwegian Cyclone said: Good precip development continues in the Deep South Expand On the wcu tower webcam it's coming down nice. Met reports moderate snow Haywood County. Both have everything covered up solid now in snow.Should be in Asheville soon. That's telling if you look close at the radar and it doesn't look like much, so imagine when it really gets cranking over head in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:56 AM, WidreMann said: Unfortunately, RGEM is now also showing the warming, albeit not as much. Expand It’s all snow for you and dropping 6-8” across your area and temps are plenty cold aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:55 AM, WidreMann said: Far enough east they may be out of the clouds, and certainly not precipitating. But I don't see why central NC under clouds and frozen precip should be warming. Expand Once that frozen glob of arctic gets over us it wont be. Sure there's the old latent heat of condensation, but its not going to make much difference with this air mass. I think the hrrrrrr is just out of its range. Like snowlover91 said, if its past 10 hrs, hrrrrrrr is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/17/2018 at 3:56 AM, cbmclean said: I just had a flashback to Jan 2017. Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount? I hope it wasn't the HRRR. Expand It was the 3km and 12km NAM. The NAM is money with warm noses. It shows none here so we are good. Normal panic before the storm starts, people need to relax here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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