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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Don't bother much with the snowfall maps.  The upper low has continued to trend south and cut off faster, it's all good.

Exactly.  Don’t think of this like past storms.  The screw level of this storm is lower than most.  For most of us at least.  Trust the upper low is improving how we want which will only help us.  

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

if all of these maps and HRRR are true, then wake will doesn't see appreciable snow until after 1PM.  Goes against what RAH has been putting out in graphics.

Yeah. I'm questioning the validity of the HRRR out that far. Also, those of us, myself included that are worried about boundary layer temps really don't need to look at the latest run because it's seriously warm for central NC.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

if all of these maps and HRRR are true, then wake will doesn't see appreciable snow until after 1PM.  Goes against what RAH has been putting out in graphics.

It's a fight between the HRRR/RAP and everything else. Honestly, I'm not sure where to go with this. 00z GFS/NAM/NAM4K held serve and have shown higher precip, colder temps and haven't adjusted the timing much. Usually in these kinds of situations, I expect precip to arrive earlier than expected. But this isn't a normal overrunning event, so I'm not sure.

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Don't bother much with the snowfall maps.  The upper low has continued to trend south and cut off faster, it's all good.

This could improve my totals hopefully. The RGem is close to throwing back some decent totals over me. Increased areas along highway 17 quite a bit and another 30 mile shift west on the coastal could put me in play for those totals. Hopefully if this digs further south and gets a better tilt it can pull that low closer to the coast for me.

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

if all of these maps and HRRR are true, then wake will doesn't see appreciable snow until after 1PM.  Goes against what RAH has been putting out in graphics.

Deep breathes. Models look good. GFS just shifted east with totals. RGEM upped precip and so did the NAM

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