NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Maybe Grit or wow can chime In or correct me if I'm wrong. Est start times Rdu 7am Randolph 5am Charlotte 330 ish Mack 200ish Lookout 1 to 2 am Does that sound right lookout? For your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mx3gsr92 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I really hope that 3K NAM comes to fruition. Not only would I welcome the snow here in Virginia Beach (3"+) to spend some time with my children, DT gets shafted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NAM is trying to give the upstate 4+ and seeing how the models have ticked up every run today I'm sure it will tick up until game time. Yowzas. Curious to see what CJ and JC have to say in an hour. I know they are seeing the same things we're seeing. Boom potential. WSW may be coming for the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 4-5" for clt on the nam assuming 10:1. a warning will likely be issued for meck here shortly i would think. man what great trends inside 24hrs for once! The Foothills are so close to Warning criteria 3.53 mean for Hickory/Morganton on the SREF. Think WSW will be issued up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I don't see a shift west on the NAM in regards to snowfall totals. Just more enhanced snowfall near the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3k Nam def better for Wake Co., you RDU circus animals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, NCWeSU said: I don't see a shift west on the NAM in regards to snowfall totals. Just more enhanced snowfall near the triad. Agreed. Also in the past big trends like this usually level off and settle back east a little. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, NCWeSU said: I don't see a shift west on the NAM in regards to snowfall totals. Just more enhanced snowfall near the triad. Correct. Higher totals shifted west and east. Slightly more robust system leads to an enhancement in QPF. Relative jackpot zone still just west of the Triangle. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 RGEM just double downed! Pretty significant qpf increases from what I can tell on the black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NAM a good 5 to 7 for all of Wake Co. Not sure why some are worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: NAM a good 5 to 7 for all of Wake Co. Not sure why some are worried. You remember January of 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 3k Nam def better for Wake Co., you RDU circus animals! Hey CR...what time does the next NWS update come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 trough becoming more negative now https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: 3k Nam def better for Wake Co., you RDU circus animals! Looks like it upped totals out west as it takes the trough more neutral, this shouldnt really hurt RDU.....just help the I77 folks....it also would help pop that SLP closer to the NC coast and maybe keep that horrible horrible dead zone right over me from happening....not sure why the totals flatten out just east of RDU as the energy heads east but it does.....yesterday we had 2-5" over us today 1-2" at best on all models...... I guess this is to be expected though I cant think of to many times if ever we have had two 4-6"+ type events in the same winter.....so it makes sense that this one wont produce for us where we had the snow 2 weeks ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: Hey CR...what time does the next NWS update come out? I don’t know when they update their winter weather products, but the next major AFD comes out in the 2-3:00 am range, usually. Watch Fishel at 11 and see if he’s caved yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 GSP just updated my forecast, must be planning on upgrading to Winter Storm Warnings soon. Tonight Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday Snow, mainly before 11am. High near 31. North wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. EDIT: Update Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- York-Chester- Including the cities of Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, Catawba, Rock Hill, Chester, Cornwell, and Great Falls 948 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Looks like it upped totals out west as it takes the trough more neutral, this shouldnt really hurt RDU.....just help the I77 folks....it also would help pop that SLP closer to the NC coast and maybe keep that horrible horrible dead zone right over me from happening....not sure why the totals flatten out just east of RDU as the energy heads east but it does.....yesterday we had 2-5" over us today 1-2" at best on all models...... I guess this is to be expected though I cant think of to many times if ever we have had two 4-6"+ type events in the same winter.....so it makes sense that this one wont produce for us where we had the snow 2 weeks ago..... Yeah man, today, the models have just killed the line as it moves east. Unless there is a transfer happening, I can’t see why the line would fizzle so quickly. I would expect it to hold together longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Poimen said: RGEM just double downed! Pretty significant qpf increases from what I can tell on the black and white maps. Yes, a bit further west with the precip and more of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Looks like it upped totals out west as it takes the trough more neutral, this shouldnt really hurt RDU.....just help the I77 folks....it also would help pop that SLP closer to the NC coast and maybe keep that horrible horrible dead zone right over me from happening....not sure why the totals flatten out just east of RDU as the energy heads east but it does.....yesterday we had 2-5" over us today 1-2" at best on all models...... I guess this is to be expected though I cant think of to many times if ever we have had two 4-6"+ type events in the same winter.....so it makes sense that this one wont produce for us where we had the snow 2 weeks ago..... I'm no expert but I assume the reason for a sharp QPF drop off east of RDU is that the energy transfers offshore to that slp we see popping out and hammering OBX on the latest hi res NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 4-5" for clt on the nam assuming 10:1. a warning will likely be issued for meck here shortly i would think. man what great trends inside 24hrs for once! That's amazing! Trying to hold my excitement a bit...as ive seen this before. Numbers go up and up toward the event, then something at the last second poos it right out. Warm nose, sleet, surface temps, growth in the dendrites zone, convection in the gulf, something messes it up. Just really hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM a good 5 to 7 for all of Wake Co. Not sure why some are worried. because we have been here before. looks good the day before, then the last minute NW shift happens, the warm nose "unexpectedly" makes a showing, as does the Wake county snow hole. then you see several posts on amwx "it will be interesting to see a write up on what exactly went wrong here" "i cant believe the models were so wrong" etc etc. 5-7 is really pushing it. we will be lucky to see 4" IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I like these trends because of why the precip is trending up. Many times we have the low off the coast and we are hoping for a 50-100 mile Shift here or there and hoping the models are predicting the right qpf and that rarely pays off for the majority of people. With this storm as it goes more neutral/negatively tilted we get higher totals. The models are much better at predicting the features, like the trough orientation etc....and not so good at exact qpf. So regardless. Whatever was being shown a day or two ago is going to increase as the storm gets closer to being negative tilt. Determining if that means we get 2” or 8” is much harder but I feel comfortable the way things are headed. Much more comfortable than most storms in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I don’t know when they update their winter weather products, but the next major AFD comes out in the 2-3:00 am range, usually. Watch Fishel at 11 and see if he’s caved yet! Hah! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Winter storm warning just went up for me by gsp, just south of hickory nc. 2-4 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, JoshM said: GSP just updated my forecast, must be planning on upgrading to Winter Storm Warnings soon. Tonight Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday Snow, mainly before 11am. High near 31. North wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. EDIT: Update Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- York-Chester- Including the cities of Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, Catawba, Rock Hill, Chester, Cornwell, and Great Falls 948 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY... And it looks like they will ride the WWA here as my updated wording continues to read the same. WWS into the upstate also. Based on current guidance, this is a good step. Still sitting in the 1-3" range with hope to cash in on the east side of my county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: If precip starts later in Wake I think we see a lot more mixing. 1-2” is a safe bet for wake. Isohume and the gang just pulled trigger! WSW! Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 WSW for Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, MillerA said: Winter storm warning just went up for me by gsp, just show of hickory nc. 2-4 inches now. Yep, and now thru 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 NWS Morristown measured a 22:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 You guys think they add Danville to WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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