oconeexman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening You havent read much of these posts? Folks in Georgia were in mid 40's and in 45 minutes went to mid 30's and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, drfranklin said: where are you located? I am just south of DT Greenville, north of I85 - temp now is 40.9 Up the street from Mack in Simpsonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 What’s the new qpf for Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: What site do you use for temps? WN, I have a Davis Vantage Vue in my backyard, well away from any structures (it is about 10 feet from a rarely used side street, 2 m above ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: What’s the new qpf for Raleigh .38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jibbm Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, WarmNose said: What site do you use for temps? Use Wunderground stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 If precip starts later in Wake I think we see a lot more mixing. 1-2” is a safe bet for wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Where do you guys get your qpfs from I want to look instead of asking you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: If precip starts later in Wake I think we see a lot more mixing. 1-2” is a safe bet for wake. Mixing won’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: If precip starts later in Wake I think we see a lot more mixing. 1-2” is a safe bet for wake. I thought the same thing yesterday afternoon but the models have increased .qpf a lot since then. I really think we could be in the 3 to 6 range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NAM is rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening I was at 43 degrees at 5. Now at 30 degrees. The front means business. I dropped 6 degrees in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Latest RAP: 6-7" totals in the Triad. Still snow in RDU at the end of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening What is your wet bulb... that's what u will drop too once the precip gets going. Also, the air mass behind the front is cold/dry and will aid in cooling. In other words don't seat the surface temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: If precip starts later in Wake I think we see a lot more mixing. 1-2” is a safe bet for wake. Really? Have you been reading what everyone has been saying about temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 That rap is valid at 4pm and wake barely has anything. What in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 SREF QPF's means: KGSO: .53 QPF KDAN: .46 PQF KCLT: .42 QPF KRDU: .40 QPF KAVL: .28 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 30 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: holy smokes. sref up to 4" for clt...lowest member is 2.5" NWS GSP will probably issue a WINTER STORM WARNING, based on that data. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said: NWS GSP will probably issue a WINTER STORM WARNING, based on that data. No? Probably as they already had Union and only Union in a Winston storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 0z Nam very minimal changes through hr 9 in regards to precip at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: 0z Nam very minimal changes through hr 9 in regards to precip at the surface. But farther SW with the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: NWS GSP will probably issue a WINTER STORM WARNING, based on that data. No? I believe they said new warnings will probably be issued by 10pm news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poimen said: Latest RAP: 6-7" totals in the Triad. Still snow in RDU at the end of the run: It is also showing a max around the upstate and SE NC into the southern foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: HRRR is definitely showing some enhancement along the escarpment w/ that meso low in NW SC(SE to NW sfc upslopping winds) and some frontogensis banding along that area due to the thermal boundary/temperature difference b/n the west/east sides of the mountains. Could definitely lead to some additional forcing/vertical motion in that area tonight. Would that enhancement from the mesolow also extend into the southern piedmont? Perhaps into Charlotte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Wow...SREF went from .7 to 2.3 at ODF just across the GA/SC border in Oconee County. And from .6 to around 1.8 in Athens. And just looking around other North GA plumes, similar increases of around an inch are fairly common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That rap is valid at 4pm and wake barely has anything. What in the world. Well, from the update that RAH put together at 7:40, I don't think they are paying to much attention to it, so I wouldn't put to much stock in it at this point. Not to say it can't and won't verify but I think the HRRR would be a better model to follow. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, wx4life said: I believe they said new warnings will probably be issued by 10pm news. If warnings are warranted, they will come out in the new package around 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That rap is valid at 4pm and wake barely has anything. What in the world. Its the rap... not known for its greatness haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 0Z NAM is bringing the goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wow said: But farther SW with the trough I honestly hadn’t even looked at 5h. I do notice at 13 the precip does look a pretty good bit better for northern most NC and into the Danville VA area, knocking on my door. Nam imo a little improved at 0z. MANY people will be extremely happy if the Nam’s depiction comes to fruition. Just a nice stream of moisture through the heart of the southeastern forum. It’s honestly even darn close up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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