CaryWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 33 degrees and snow for 5hrs is a manhole runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Rap is giving Greenville, SC .39 liquid. Hrr is giving them .43 liquid. Both models show less than .05 falling with temps above freezing. Hard to imagine that area not getting at least 2 or 3 inches. If the output happens as stated in this current model run I agree. That is even with less than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 holy smokes. sref up to 4" for clt...lowest member is 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: holy smokes. sref up to 4" for clt... Another great trend... let's see if all other guidance follows suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I will say latest short range models have cut back on QPF and are starting to show the leeside minimum more.. for what its worth I’m not seeing that on HRRR or RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Perhaps I've been reading things incorrectly, but I thought precip was arriving in Wake County around 6-7AM and lasting for 6-7 hours. That would have it ending around 1PM. Has the timing shifted? or amounts decreased? Grit posted euro details from 12z that indicated roughly 12 hours of snowfall for RDU...7 to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Perhaps I've been reading things incorrectly, but I thought precip was arriving in Wake County around 6-7AM and lasting for 6-7 hours. That would have it ending around 1PM. Has the timing shifted? or amounts decreased? Starting around 7am, best snows early afternoon 12-3pm, tapering off after that and ending by dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: holy smokes. sref up to 4" for clt... Whoa same for rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 nam should come in really nice here shortly with the sref doubling like that. wowza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 SREF mean is 5.6" at GSO. Wow. qpf mean is .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Hickory SREF mean just went from 2.00 to 3.53 with a bunch of members above 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m not seeing that on HRRR or RAP Its not a huge decrease but its there, especially for Wilkes, Surry, etc. Still OK for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: SREF mean is 5.6" at GSO. Wow. qpf mean is .5" yea qpf for clt went from .25" to .4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Really surprised the SREF went up for RDU. Thought it would stabilize or trend down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m not seeing that on HRRR or RAP Same here. Got to ride it till the wheels come off. Maybe this time, they stay on. Updated GSP totals as of 7:17pm: Up tick up 1" for FQD in Rutherford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, strongwxnc said: Same here. Got to ride it till the wheels come off. Maybe this time, they stay on. Good to see GFS come on board at the 11th hour per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Holy **** balls. 4 inch plumes for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Good to see GFS come on board at the 11th hour per usual. I added the updated GSP totals to my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 The lowest SREF member for GSO is ~4", the highest is ~9". Otherwise they're tightly packed between 4-8." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 gsp upped the forecast for clt to 3". after the latest sref they may need to expand the warning to meck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Surprised SREF mean went to almost 6" for GSO. LOWEST is 3.4. Highest is over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 HRRR is definitely showing some enhancement along the escarpment w/ that meso low in NW SC(SE to NW sfc upslopping winds) and some frontogensis banding along that area due to the thermal boundary/temperature difference b/n the west/east sides of the mountains. Could definitely lead to some additional forcing/vertical motion in that area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 sref Plumes seem up for everyone. The closest to me is Shelby and it is 4.18" up from 2.2". Crazy High end is 7.18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening I was at 44 around 45 min ago. Im now down to 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening where are you located? I am just south of DT Greenville, north of I85 - temp now is 40.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Noobish question, but if precip slows and enhancement happens at the same time...will the precip not be as enhanced further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, drfranklin said: where are you located? I am just south of DT Greenville, north of I85 - temp now is 40.9 What site do you use for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening I was 48 at 5:00. It is now 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening Very easily. Temps will crash. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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