griteater Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The wave/trough pass simply isn't as good as it was yesterday at this time. Trough isn't as deep and no good vort packet at the base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 JMA showing some precip across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 We've gone from 7" on the EURO to .4" in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 nice event modeled west of the blue ridge. Not a far drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ninanemia winter when it comes to precip I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: nice event modeled west of the blue ridge. Not a far drive. You should setup shop in Johnson City man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: You should setup shop in Johnson City man. Shift the euro 3 counties west and millions of people (Charlotte, Winston, Greensboro) are in the light snow possibilities. It's only Saturday and the slightest change could lead to many people scoring that really haven't done well this winter. Close call at this stage IMO. Not trending in the right direction, but far from a cave of disappointment. GFS would about give some of Wilkes 1" maybe more if it trends wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Interesting through 72 hours how the event west of the blue ridge differs so much on the euro and gfs. I like my chances with the cold in place with moisture trying to cross versus rain/wind trying to cross the blue ridge. Doubt it trends wetter, but man if it did, would be nice 1-2" all snow north of i40. Currently only expecting flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 35 minutes ago, Poimen said: We've gone from 7" on the EURO to .4" in 24 hours. Euro hasn’t done well this winter with our events. The UK and CMC have been a bit better and even the GFS has done okay. The setup favors snow east of 95 for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 57 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Euro is spitting hundredths where as most of us are looking for something in the tenths. East of 95 it’s .1 to .3 qpf so a solid 1-3” snow and possibly higher with better ratios. Models seem to agree on .1 in qpf if you average them together. UK and the Euro are the wettest two with up to .3 in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 RAH Sat. afternoon: Srong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover to snow late Tue night into Wednesday. If the trough aloft is weaker and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, to inconsequential snow event would result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: GFS would about give some of Wilkes 1" maybe more if it trends wetter. One can only hope. Hard to get a Gulf tap though with a 500mb trough cutting through the northern extent of the Cumberland Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH Sat. afternoon: Srong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover to snow late Tue night into Wednesday. If the trough aloft is weaker and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, to inconsequential snow event would result. This is the kiss of death for me. I learned my lesson last January. The influx of cold air will be slower than modeled (see Cold Rain's essay). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 You sure that RAH discussion has been modified? Sounds very similar to the one this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: You sure that RAH discussion has been modified? Sounds very similar to the one this morning. Sounds the same as this morning. Maybe they had nothing to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This makes me want to go old school and walk outside the day of the potential event and let my chickens (if I had any) tell me what it is gonna do, but it is way more fun reading the threads.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This makes me want to go old school and walk outside the day of the potential event and let my chickens (if I had any) tell me what it is gonna do, but it is way more fun reading the threads.Sent from my SM-N950U using TapatalkMy chickens eat like the world is ending every day. But I’ll Ask them what’s up with the system mid week. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18z NAM is even more sharper than it's 12z run. At hour 84 it has this (which is better than the GFS): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z NAM is even more sharper than it's 12z run. At hour 84 it has this (which is better than the GFS): Yeah it's a decent look all things considered, it may even look similar to past EURO runs. Of course, we need to wait a few more cycles to see if its legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Poimen said: Yeah it's a decent look all things considered, it may even look similar to past EURO runs. Of course, we need to wait a few more cycles to see if its legit. I was just looking into this. It is very similar to yesterday’s 12z euro upper levels. This euro run dropped 6+ NE of Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ok yeah that NAM run looks light years better than the globals at the end, but it could very well be too deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Ok yeah that NAM run looks light years better than the globals at the end, but it could very well be too deep Lol! When the extended/extrapolated NAM is your only hope...... hit the lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! When the extended/extrapolated NAM is your only hope...... hit the lights Except for the last event we had. Need to get within 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: You sure that RAH discussion has been modified? Sounds very similar to the one this morning. Well they did change "inconsequential flake event" to "inconsequential snow event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Solak said: Well they did change "inconsequential flake event" to "inconsequential snow event" I thought somebody said yesterday that NWS was only updating Long range discussion once a day now!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The 18z GFS also looks sharper (more SW) at hour 60. Not sure where it will go but it looks better at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It's over for the upstate! Robert said if anything here, could be just sprinkles! Clippers always work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18z GFS is a little better for northern NC. Looks like ~1" from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Not great, but something to expand on during the next couple of days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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