Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 22z rap looks absolutely fabulous for all of central nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: 22z rap looks absolutely fabulous for all of central nc Not with temps in the mid-upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have never seen crashing temps aloft, an Arctic airmass moving into the area, moderate to heavy snow falling and a temp rising through the 30s. But maybe the RAP is right this time and we get blanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: Not with temps in the mid-upper 30s. Allan Huffman, one of the best mets out there, just said temps won't be an issue and this will be all snow. I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, wxdawg10 said: Allan Huffman, one of the best mets out there, just said temps won't be an issue and this will be all snow. I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about. Then he needs to explain why the RAP and HRRR and GFS are all showing temps rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have never seen crashing temps aloft, an Arctic airmass moving into the area, moderate to heavy snow falling and a temp rising through the 30s. But maybe the RAP is right this time and we get blanked. Remember the rule: if a model shows something that reduces or eliminates snow here, no matter how unlikely, it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: Then he needs to explain why the RAP and HRRR and GFS are all showing temps rising. Once the precipitation falls, the temp will drop quickly. Calm. Down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Even with the rising temps they are still showing a good amount of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The RAP does look a little slow to me. Either way, I wouldn't sweat the details of the 21 HR RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Remember the rule: if a model shows something that reduces or eliminates snow here, no matter how unlikely, it will happen. Haha yeah that’s usually true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Not with temps in the mid-upper 30s. I'm sorry but I call shenanigans, if 850s were marginal and we had a big low tracking up the coast drawing in atlantic air then yes mid 30s likely wouldnt cut it, but temps aloft will not hinder us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Then he needs to explain why the RAP and HRRR and GFS are all showing temps rising. just a note....that big snow georgia got back in december, those models did the same thing....and of course it didn't happen. with moderate to heavy snow falling, it makes it a little hard. and that airmass was a lot warmer than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Remember the rule: if a model shows something that reduces or eliminates snow here, no matter how unlikely, it will happen. Haha. I’ve seen this go both ways. There’s no bias most of the time in this area with models. We just get screwed. Temps on models go down every run up until the storm gets here but then for some reason they are too warm and the models were wrong. Or the temps keep going up on the modes and then they’re right for some reason. ill kee my fingers crossed we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have never seen crashing temps aloft, an Arctic airmass moving into the area, moderate to heavy snow falling and a temp rising through the 30s. But maybe the RAP is right this time and we get blanked. just had a live shot from GA on TWC and it was 40 degrees and sticking to the grass already ! BL temps , what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 hrrr not backing down as we get closer, beautiful look at 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 WWA hoisted up for the SENC "coastal" areas just now... May upgrade to WSW overnight as Data is ingested.. If it "looks" like 2" inches are going too fall WSW will be out by Morning.. Of course, being here on the immediate coast, we'll see some Snow Flurries, though NOT till the end of the event.. (Cold chasing Moister).. UNLESS, we just may get a NICE Surprise (again).... (Couple inches just to make things interesting)... I feel like once the Precip starts too fall,, Evaporative cooling and cold air advection, will both combine to maybe give Us Coastal Folks a surprise late Tomorrow afternoon.. I HOPE ya'll in the RDU/Central part of NC/SC/GA/Va areas get BURIED! 7" plus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 updated discussion from FFC talking about the potential of enhanced totals Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 604 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .UPDATE... Wintry mix making its way across north GA this early evening. With temperatures quickly dropping behind the cold front (which is currently situated across NE GA down through the metro, south to Columbus), expect a fine line between rain/snow as the precipitation continues to move south and east. Thus expecting the far northern tier of GA to see mainly snow over the next hour, transitioning down to the metro between 7pm and 9pm. This transition of rain to snow will continue to slowly move toward Columbus around midnight, to Macon around 5am. An area of concern is the possible mesoscale banding that could set up across a portion of the area later this evening into the overnight. This is due to the positively tilted trough, exiting jet and low/mid level impulses allowing lift to be more enhanced. This combined with fgen features showing a bit of instability could result in localized higher snowfall amounts. Based on this information and current model trends, current thinking is that this region would be between LaGrange down toward Columbus then northeast toward Athens. We will continue to monitor observations and high resolution model guidance and update as needed. 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR doesn't have snow into Wake Co until 10-11am. Warning shots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, PackWxMan said: HRRR doesn't have snow into Wake Co until 10-11am. Warning shots? I hate it when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: HRRR doesn't have snow into Wake Co until 10-11am. Warning shots? So is the HRRR the go to at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Don't worry about HRRR slowing down precip and being warm. Remember that still LONG RANGE HRRR. key is how the 6-10AM timeframe trends the next 6-8 runs. Trust me temps are crashing fast right now and are a couple degrees ahead of HRRR in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 HRRR certainly will have plenty of changes... but you have the NWS with the early morning snow onset. HRRR with way later.... something that gets my bust blood pressure pumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowinnc said: So is the HRRR the go to at this point? HRRR inside 10 hrs is good. outside that its not. especially with temps and precip onset outside 10 hours or even 8 I use HRRR solely for trends. colder warmer wetter drier. These last frames haven't even been abe to "trend" yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nancy Drew Mysteries Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: updated discussion from FFC talking about the potential of enhanced totals Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 604 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .UPDATE... Wintry mix making its way across north GA this early evening. With temperatures quickly dropping behind the cold front (which is currently situated across NE GA down through the metro, south to Columbus), expect a fine line between rain/snow as the precipitation continues to move south and east. Thus expecting the far northern tier of GA to see mainly snow over the next hour, transitioning down to the metro between 7pm and 9pm. This transition of rain to snow will continue to slowly move toward Columbus around midnight, to Macon around 5am. An area of concern is the possible mesoscale banding that could set up across a portion of the area later this evening into the overnight. This is due to the positively tilted trough, exiting jet and low/mid level impulses allowing lift to be more enhanced. This combined with fgen features showing a bit of instability could result in localized higher snowfall amounts. Based on this information and current model trends, current thinking is that this region would be between LaGrange down toward Columbus then northeast toward Athens. We will continue to monitor observations and high resolution model guidance and update as needed. 26 Since I live 15 miles SW of Athens, this is good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: HRRR inside 10 hrs is good. outside that its not. especially with temps and precip onset Thank you! I actually keep notes of these answers so I don’t have to ask again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: updated discussion from FFC talking about the potential of enhanced totals Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 604 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .UPDATE... Wintry mix making its way across north GA this early evening. With temperatures quickly dropping behind the cold front (which is currently situated across NE GA down through the metro, south to Columbus), expect a fine line between rain/snow as the precipitation continues to move south and east. Thus expecting the far northern tier of GA to see mainly snow over the next hour, transitioning down to the metro between 7pm and 9pm. This transition of rain to snow will continue to slowly move toward Columbus around midnight, to Macon around 5am. An area of concern is the possible mesoscale banding that could set up across a portion of the area later this evening into the overnight. This is due to the positively tilted trough, exiting jet and low/mid level impulses allowing lift to be more enhanced. This combined with fgen features showing a bit of instability could result in localized higher snowfall amounts. Based on this information and current model trends, current thinking is that this region would be between LaGrange down toward Columbus then northeast toward Athens. We will continue to monitor observations and high resolution model guidance and update as needed. 26 Lookout,, question please.. Isn't "better" for the "through" to become Negatively tilted? along with the Isobars closing off? (upper level Low correct ??, or is that a "Vortex" Piece of energy? ) I; like many others are still learning.. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowinnc said: w\Thank you! I actually keep notes of these answers so I don’t have to ask again! Oh yeah i learned for years and years just memorizing opinions of models etc. Once you get the basics down you can formulate your own opinion etc etc. this really is a great place to learn! The bottom line is we have this happen almost every storm. 12 hours out the RAP or HRRR or even NAM will come out with rain or be bone dry (I went from a foot of snow 12 hrs out to 3 inches back to 6+ for the storm early January on the 3km NAM all in the last 12 hours) Meso models that run hourly get you in trouble if you look at each. individual. run. You have to blend the trends together to not go insane watching these hourly models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Quick reminder that we have an observation thread started on main page. Great disco today and great trends for most! Hell i think Mack was even being positive...a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Calling for 2" + EAST of I-95.. hmmm KILM AFD Near term /through Wednesday night/... as of 300 PM Tuesday...main headline for the near term, 'winter weather advisory' posted for inland portions of the area, for the potential of around an inch of snow, possibly closer to 2 inches over northern Marlboro County. A rain/snow mix will be underway at daybreak west of I-95, spreading eastward, with the leading edge of stratiform precipitation reaching the coast midday to early in the afternoon. Areas outside of the advisory, may see snow as well, but less than 1 inch of accumulation expected. The rain and snow will be off the coast in the evening Wednesday. Adjustments to the advisory may be made overnight with new data, and we cannot rule out completely, a 'winter storm warning' if 2 inches is expected within 12 hours for portions of the I-95 corridor. Evaporative cooling and cold air advection will keep maximum temperatures locked into the 30s inland, and 40s near the coast Wednesday. Snow may not change over to rain near coastal zones, or if so, not until evening, when temperatures finally become cold enough, chasing the moisture to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Oh yeah i learned for years and years just memorizing opinions of models etc. Once you get the basics down you can formulate your own opinion etc etc. this really is a great place to learn! The bottom line is we have this happen almost every storm. 12 hours out the RAP or HRRR or even NAM will come out rain or bone dry (I went from a foot of snow 12 hrs out to 3 inches back to 6+ for the storm early January on the 3km NAM all in the last 12 hours) Meso models that run hourly get you in trouble if you look at each. individual. run. You have to blend the trends together to not go insane watching these hourly models I’ve learned a lot throughout the years here because there are so many knowledgeable people on here but yesterday when people started talking about the ICON I felt like I needed to start all over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.