WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: If the NW trend is real (it hasn't been so far with this storm), the GFS could cause problems for many here, especially CLT and RDU. Seems like it's indeed playing catch up though with the short term models, though. I've been through so many of the storms and often that last minute shift. I posted a while back today there would be a NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: If we stipulate that .4 will fall over Wake and we use an average of 12:1, that gives 4.8". Not bad. That would be a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If we stipulate that .4 will fall over Wake and we use an average of 12:1, that gives 4.8". Not bad. And .4 is fairly conservative now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 BL temps will kill us in the Triangle, I guarantee it. You start seeing this trend and it won't get better. SREF is warmer too. If we are floating around 31/32, accumulations will be significantly curtailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, Wow said: GFS playing catchup TREND If it drops much farther south, it could be a bigger surpise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WidreMann said: BL temps will kill us in the Triangle, I guarantee it. You start seeing this trend and it won't get better. SREF is warmer too. If we are floating around 31/32, accumulations will be significantly curtailed. We should get an inch or two. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, WidreMann said: BL temps will kill us in the Triangle, I guarantee it. You start seeing this trend and it won't get better. SREF is warmer too. If we are floating around 31/32, accumulations will be significantly curtailed. Whatever. Others have explained this won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, WidreMann said: BL temps will kill us in the Triangle, I guarantee it. You start seeing this trend and it won't get better. SREF is warmer too. If we are floating around 31/32, accumulations will be significantly curtailed. As much as I hate agreeing with you I do. Everyone seems so adamant about BL temps not being a problem but I just don’t see it. 9 times out of 10 it’s an issue and I think it will be now as well unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If we stipulate that .4 will fall over Wake and we use an average of 12:1, that gives 4.8". Not bad. I think 4 is going to be the minimum around Wake with some getting at least 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Is this convection in Louisiana and Texas a concern for moisture transport or will we be okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowJoMoJo said: Is this convection in Louisiana and Texas a concern for moisture transport or will we be okay? No, not an issue. Our precip is just going to blow up in North / Mid GA, then blossom NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Eric Webb thinking 3 to 7 might be too low for US1 and west to the Triad Starting to look more & more like my call for 3-7" in the east-central piedmont isn't going to be nearly enough. The GFS & 3km NAM would definitely support 4-8/5-9"+ along and west of US-1 and back towards the Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Here she comes folks! Snow breaking thru south of Asheville and approaching NW Atlanta. Cold air should start pouring over those mtns the rest of the evening. Game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think 4 is going to be the minimum around Wake with some getting at least 6. I hope that you’re right but I think you’re wishcasting. I think that 2”-4” is what we will end up with, which would thrill me. The temps always end up being a concern in Wake County, always. Even if there isn’t a last minute NW shift (which I’m not counting out right now) for temps will be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowJoMoJo said: Is this convection in Louisiana and Texas a concern for moisture transport or will we be okay? thats where we want to see the convection, the organized little squals in the gulf we typically see with slps there are what we dont want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On the bright side, the HRRR is trending colder and colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, snowinnc said: I hope that you’re right but I think you’re wishcasting. I think that 2”-4” is what we will end up with, which would thrill me. The temps always end up being a concern in Wake County, always. Even if there isn’t a last minute NW shift (which I’m not counting out right now) for temps will be an issue. Okay. Lots of knowledgeable folks and mets have said temps won't be an issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thanks Disco and Mack for helping a newbie trying to learn here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Blacksburg, says Frosty MIGHT get an inch??? lol Good luck and Enjoy guys to the south and east of Frosty's winter wonderland!!! TONIGHT...Cloudy. Scattered flurries this evening, then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered flurries. Highs around 30. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 degree temperature drop in the last hour at my folks place in far NE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowinnc said: I hope that you’re right but I think you’re wishcasting. I think that 2”-4” is what we will end up with, which would thrill me. The temps always end up being a concern in Wake County, always. Even if there isn’t a last minute NW shift (which I’m not counting out right now) for temps will be an issue. Well, when local mets (including Huffman & Webb) don’t even mention a warm nose...then I’m not sure we have to worry about it. I think you guys are just paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Okay. Lots of knowledgeable folks and mets have said temps won't be an issue here. I know that *but* the same thing has been said before by many knowledgeable mets and we end up with temp issues. I hope I’m wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 look the 850 0c line is already well established across nc this is what makes the difference between rates over coming in 15 minutes and cold rain for hours on end this will continue to move east through the night well before any precip gets near rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WakeCountyWX said: Well, when local mets (including Huffman & Webb) don’t even mention a warm nose...then I’m not sure we have to worry about it. I think you guys are just paranoid. Probably so. I’m paranoid and jaded. Webb always seems spot on so I probably just need to relax and hope that the Heels don’t lay an egg tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This is a frontal passage. Nw trend applies more with coastal. The maximum mah shift more nw but not a transition line or anything like normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Well the good news is I only have to fight off 18 degrees to get to the freezing mark. Should be a piece of cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hrrr really wants to jackpot northern Greenville county in South Carolina. Heavy precip blossoms there around 4am and stays anchored in the same spot for 4 hours. I tend to buy this because at also jackpots the Southern Mountains... those guys always find a way to jack pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hoping the ATL area gets more and longer-lasting precipitation (snow) than forecasted... Can anyone comment on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Someone noted on another forum that precip in MS is northwest of HRRR initialization. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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