wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS looking even better.. Best run yet of any global IMO.. not done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18z GFS looking great. Widespread 4-7" between Greensboro and Raleigh at hour 30 (with snow still falling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Here's the 10:1 map at hour 36: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Cumberland County NC (Fayetteville) Schools have already pulled the trigger and cancelled for tomorrow. I do hope no one tries to be cute with a late start/early dismissal situation and runs the risk of buses being on the road while snow is coming down. We haven't had a daylight storm like this in a few years. Edit: Durham County just cancelled for tomorrow as well. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z GFS looking great. Widespread 4-7" between Greensboro and Raleigh at hour 30 (with snow still falling). it continues to perplex me that kuchera maps look less. I'll trust the nws like we said though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 From the AKQ discussion at 4pm.Confident in period of moderate snow inland, given well-modelednarrow band of negative EPV dropping over the SW zones in thePiedmont (I-85 corridor). There could be a very narrow corridorof 4-6" of snow in this band. However, expect this would be verylocalized and hard to pin- down, so there is no need for awatch or warning at this time. Slightly less confident into SEVA. To reiterate...we have issued a Winter Weather Advisoryover Hampton Roads for the late morning and afternoon. However,we are still a bit concerned with sharpening axis of F-Gen/OPRHdepicted by the 12z (and now 18z) high-res NAM. Issue will bethat we will have a very narrow window within which to receivemoderate snows into Tidewater area, before best axis of moistureslides offshore. Potential is there for warning criteria snows(and criteria is 3" for SE VA). However, after collaborationwith neighboring offices and WPC, will hold off with warning fornow. Narrow window of potential snowfall is the primary issue.Should later model runs continue to depict this potential, anupgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for all or part of the HamptonRoads area may be needed.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GFS just doubled QPF GFS playing catchup TREND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Watch this area over the next few hours. By 7PM this area should be exploding with moisture and will be our moisture "train." we want to see great QPF in this area going into the evening. It wouldn't hurt to have it fill in there, but really, a new band should get going in N GA and east and NE of there as the trough bottoms out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS looking even better.. Best run yet of any global IMO.. not done yet Oh, but that leeside minimum is still quite visible. I know it puts 3.1 over KHKY, but it's oh, so close to lesser amounts. That leeside minimum is always in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, griteater said: It wouldn't hurt to have it fill in there, but really, a new band should get going in N GA and east and NE of there as the trough bottoms out Yeah that's the real show tomorrow as we go neutral. What we want to see downstream is good GOM moisture. Radar looks great too our south currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If the NW trend is real (it hasn't been so far with this storm), the GFS could cause problems for many here, especially CLT and RDU. Seems like it's indeed playing catch up though with the short term models, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Release the Kraken! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wow said: GFS playing catchup TREND Very close to closing off on this tun. Trough quite a bit deeper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Release the Kraken! Only gives me 1.8 inches. Woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PirateWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have lurked for about 6 months and this is my first post so if this is a dumb question that’s why. Why is the gradient so sharp in that 50-75 miles to my NNW is looking at 3-5” and Pitt County is looking like <1”? Thanks in advance, truly enjoy watching and learning from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Why is the Kucaracha map less than the 10:1 map, when average ratios will likely be better than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Look at that precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Only gives me 1.8 inches. Woo. Payback, I guess. You should have started the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Why is the Kucaracha map less than the 10:1 map, when average ratios will likely be better than 10:1? Kuchera has Wake county in the 8-10:1 range. Because of surface temps at 31. But i expect temps to crash faster than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Updated snow map from NWS RAH. I like how they low-key painted in a couple of bullseyes amongst the 3-4" band, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, PirateWx said: I have lurked for about 6 months and this is my first post so if this is a dumb question that’s why. Why is the gradient so sharp in that 50-75 miles to my NNW is looking at 3-5” and Pitt County is looking like <1”? Thanks in advance, truly enjoy watching and learning from you guys. Welcome to the board. The models have the energy weakening and the band dying as it moves east. Maximum dynamics occur farther west and then wane, as the system exits east. Many times, these bands hold together longer than modeled. So there is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Kuchera has Wake county in the 8-10:1 range. Because of surface temps at 31. But i expect temps to crash faster than that Ok, thanks. I expect that also. If Raleigh averages 8:1, I will be very surprised. I guess it could happen, but I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Ok, thanks. I expect that also. yeah that's what happened in KY and TN with the busted totals. models had 8-10:1 rations and it ended up being 15-20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Norwegian Cyclone said: Updated snow map from NWS RAH. I like how they low-key painted in a couple of bullseyes amongst the 3-4" band, heh. Excuse me. I am in that bullseye sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Perfect visual. Unfortunately, I think that is what is really going to be a limiting factor for the NEGA/Upstate area, cold always, ALWAYS takes longer than forecast to make it over the mtns, and with our limited precip problems, being a fast mover, and how worm we got today, it is going to be a struggle. Looks like a lot of our early precip will be rain and that will further hinder our situation. I really hope I'm wrong, and Lookout and Burrel and others are much better at this than me, but I just feel like I have seen this too many times and I think it will be a struggle anywhere west of Spartanburg in the upstate, and outside of elevation. normally that is the case but i don't think it will be so much of a problem this time as there is a very strong push in the low levels and the airmass is unusually cold. Seeing a 10 degree temp drop over the span of just 20 or 30 minutes behind the front in west/northwest ga. 11 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Lookout I noticed as well the short term models seem to be picking up on this as well better then the operational models. In december's storm our area in northern pickens county was forecasted to get very little and we ended up with just over 4 inches. The mountains just above us in Cashiers & Toxaway got crushed with 12-18 inches. The short term models picked up on the quicker changeover and increase in precip amount where the operationals played catch up. Are they just calculated better to handle local terrain and lee side down sloping impacts? Yeah, they have finer resolution than the global models and if there are some meso effects from the mountains/topography they likely will pick up on it better than the coarser global models. Plus they are having input continuously put into them. I much rather have the HRRR on my side than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z GFS looking great. Widespread 4-7" between Greensboro and Raleigh at hour 30 (with snow still falling). Western piedmont ends way before that imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Why is the Kucaracha map less than the 10:1 map, when average ratios will likely be better than 10:1? The Kuchera output has our area in the 8:1 range. RAH thinks differently (well over 10:1). The same issue occurred today in Tenn and Kentucky; whereas they had much higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Oh, but that leeside minimum is still quite visible. I know it puts 3.1 over KHKY, but it's oh, so close to lesser amounts. That leeside minimum is always in the back of my mind. I live just west of you in Burke County(Valdese). One thing we have on our side is the latest HRRR and RAP both have our areas getting 3-5 inches. We can hope right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: Excuse me. I am in that bullseye sir Fingers crossed for bullseye verification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: The Kuchera output has our area in the 8:1 range. RAH thinks differently (well over 10:1). The same issue occurred today in Tenn and Kentucky; whereas they had much higher ratios. If we stipulate that .4 will fall over Wake and we use an average of 12:1, that gives 4.8". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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