FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RAH's afternoon discussion (ratios discussed as well): .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 PM Tuesday... Summary and Main Points:NWP models have trended wetter over the past couple of runs, which has boosted forecast confidence that the strong dynamic support aloft associated with the vigorous shortwave trough will support a quick burst of significant snowfall across central NC between 12 to 18z Wednesday, with an increasing likelihood of seeing a broad snow swath of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of 5 to 6 possible across the interior portions of the RAH CWA. As such, have upgraded all but the 2 most SE counties(Sampson, Wayne)to a Winter Storm Warning. Due to the west-east difference in onset and ending timing of precip, will segment the warning/advisories maps, with an earlier start in the west and later ending in the east. Details: The well-advertised blast of Arctic air, that`s currently supporting daytime highs in the teens and 20s across central and eastern TN, is well on it`s way. There has been little change in the model timing of the frontal passage through the area; between 06z-09 through the NW Piedmont, to 12 to 15z across the southern Coastal Plain. On the heels of this front, the high-amplitude positively-tilted trough that currently extends from SE Canada back into the Southern Plains, will assume a neutral tilt as it traverses the region on Wednesday, a signal of the strengthening deep layer lift(coupled ascent from strong s/w dynamics, vigorous jet divergence and deep layer f-gen)as depicted by bufkit soundings that shows a classic cross-hair signature(moderate to strong lift intersecting with the dendritic growth zone(-10C to -18C))across central NC between 12 to 18z. As such, expect the ana-frontal precip band to fill in and blossom across the area during that time frame. So, it`s not a surprise to see that models have trended wetter over the last 24 hours, with average liquid equivalents now in the 0.20 to 0.40"range. While we could see a brief period of rain or rain-snow mix at onset, especially east of the US 1 where precip will move in after daybreak, deep layer cooling will result in a quick change-over to snow, with high snow:liquid ratios of 12:18 expected in the 3 to 6 hour window of strongest forcing, similar to the upstream ratios we saw across Middle Tn and Central-Eastern Tn earlier this morning. This would support a broad swath of 2 to 4 inches(0.5-1.0"/hour rate)across interior sections of the state, with localized higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches certainly possible given the favorable set up for banding precip. Elsewhere, along the western and SE fringes, 1 to 3 inches are possible. Aggressive drying aloft will overwhelm the area as early as late morning in the west to mid afternoon in the east. This would support a brief transition of freezing drizzle before ending, resulting in only trace ice amounts. The drying andsubsidence aloft is so strong and abrupt, that western portions of the forecast could see sunshine by the afternoon, indeed a quick hitting system. Additionally, the Arctic high building in the Southern US in thewake of this system will support very cold temperatures and wind chills Wednesday and Wednesday night. Daytime highs will likely occur during the early morning at most locations, with wet-bulb cooling and CAA leading to a quick drop into the 20s by midday. NWLY wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts will make it feel even colder, producing wind chills in the teens and 20s. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the teens, with wind chill values approaching the single digits across much of centralNC. Given these frigid temperatures, any snow or slush on roads and bridges/overpasses will freeze, making for treacherous road conditions Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said: Should we expect temps to maybe fall into the upper teens tomorrow? I mean...it is 16 in Memphis right now?? basically kuchera works on an algorithm that takes the entire column of air and decides the ratio. It screwed totals out in KY and TN so badly because of the upper air. Once precip starts the frigid upper air will crash down to the surface. Hence the 12-15:1 ratios instead of 8-10:1. I expect 10-14:1 ratio across Wake county tomorrow. start at 10:1 before quickly going up to 14:1 so .6 of qpf will be between 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: this front has some serious cold air with it...53 here...upper 20s in the far northwest corner of the state. Ive never seen a build up of air this sharp. Once it spills over mountains its game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Showing MBY between 12:1-16:1 ratio for pretty much the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Ive never seen a build up of air this sharp. Once it spills over mountains its game time. 1 That's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ive never seen a build up of air this sharp. Once it spills over mountains its game time.That is an awesome graphic! Shows how the mountains are holding up the cold air. Never seen that kind of thing before. Thanks for posting.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The NAMS/HRRR/RAP are all in line with prior runs of the RGEM/GGEM. This is getting interesting fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 How do you guys think Hickory will do? I seen most say I'm lucky to get a inch. But short range models have me going 2-4.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 BTW, this threat is not 7 days away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Hope we can cool down enough. Not liking how it’s 50 degrees outside currently. Temps made it to 50 when we got that big clipper/ storm in 2003. By midnight, it was hammering snow as temps dropped through the 20s! Very good analog storm for temps, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Temps made it to 50 when we got that big clipper/ storm in 2003. By midnight, it was hammering snow as temps dropped through the 20s! Very good analog storm for temps, IMO Hope you get a few inches Mack. I just want to see some flakes falling. I was working out of town last storm we had. Hoping for a dusting on the Harnett/Cumberland line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Don't shoot me for posting this, but you can get your old school 1980's weather channel local forecast here at this site. Just plug in your city - http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=raleigh%2C+nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Here's the latest snowfall meteogram for RDU, taking the 18Z NAM runs into account. Model average now just above 5". Hmm. EDIT: here's the link: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Don't shoot me for posting this, but you can get your old school 1980's weather channel local forecast here at this site. Just plug in your city - http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=raleigh%2C+nc Love this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Don't shoot me for posting this, but you can get your old school 1980's weather channel local forecast here at this site. Just plug in your city - http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=raleigh%2C+nc That is awesome!! Thank you for posting this... I miss that old look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I will say for anyone in the Triangle starting to look toward the 5-7 mark. Models LOVE to over do trends. Example. They trend too far NW and adjust back SE. IT almost always happens. Hope for 4-5 inches. If more falls enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: Hope you get a few inches Mack. I just want to see some flakes falling. I was working out of town last storm we had. Hoping for a dusting on the Harnett/Cumberland line. NWS is calling for 3-4" in Lillington. I am 5 miles south of the Harnett/Cumberland line near Linden, so watching this area closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: They must be tossing short term guidance ! Smart move! I'm pretty sure 3" is WSW criteria down here, and hi res models are very close to that Last time I was under a WSW I got rain. I'm ok with a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Don't shoot me for posting this, but you can get your old school 1980's weather channel local forecast here at this site. Just plug in your city - http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=raleigh%2C+nc Oh man. I wish you could make it play that old TWC Christmas music! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JovialWeather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I've gotten to learn my around Tropical Tidbits now, but what sites/resources do you guys use for tracking real-time stuff? What radars/links do you find most helpful for nowcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, JovialWeather said: I've gotten to learn my around Tropical Tidbits now, but what sites/resources do you guys use for tracking real-time stuff? What radars/links do you find most helpful for nowcasting? RadarScope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: NWS is calling for 3-4" in Lillington. I am 5 miles south of the Harnett/Cumberland line near Linden, so watching this area closely. I’m in Spring Lake about .2 from the Harnett line. I just want to see it falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 So, I love how the RAP just breaks the scale on this meteogram for Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, JovialWeather said: I've gotten to learn my around Tropical Tidbits now, but what sites/resources do you guys use for tracking real-time stuff? What radars/links do you find most helpful for nowcasting? For real-time my two main sites are https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php National radar www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 Real-time atmospheric conditions Also add pivotalweather to your model watching. They have great maps for snow www.pivotalweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Latest rgem is out and it smokes the Upstate tomorrow morning! Also huge totals for Central, NC. It does look like they're might be a minima east of Raleigh as that band dies out and quickly pivots east. Edit to add: it actually looks like an area just Southeast of Raleigh gets almost completely shut out on this run, with very heavy totals just to the west of that boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Well general consensus on a quick glance at local mets 4 o'clock news, 1/2-1" at most! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Oh man. I wish you could make it play that old TWC Christmas music! At the bottom of the page the download this font link takes you to a site where you can search for audio by year.... its all there man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, The Alchemist said: At the bottom of the page the download this font link takes you to a site where you can search for audio by year.... its all there man... Nice! Thank you sir!! 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Latest rgem is out and it smokes the Upstate tomorrow morning! Also huge totals for Central, NC. It does look like they're might be a minima east of Raleigh as that band dies out and quickly pivots east. Burrel, don't you dare say that to me right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Well general consensus on a quick glance at local mets 4 o'clock news, 1/2-1" at most! Turn that frown upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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