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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

That was at the height of the storm.  It will be lesser than that for some portion of it, so you would need to average down.  Probably 14ish to 1 is a decent estimate.

I barely believe the 10:1 much less some magical 12:1+ ratio business... although our experience with this kinda stuff is quite limited but it seems like higher ratio = more snow typically yeilds squat around here 

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Gsp has gone wwa from charlotte up to Statesville and back to west for 1-3, and not wsw. Updated statement as of 303pm. 

 

303 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT, Snow and black ice expected. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
Around an inch or less of snow is expected across the
foothills, with one to three inches across much of the Piedmont.

* WHERE, Portions of upstate South Carolina and piedmont and
western North Carolina.

* WHEN, From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS, Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times. Very cold temperatures surging into the area late tonight
and early tomorrow morning will allow any moisture on roads to
quickly freeze, so even locations that receive little snow
accumulation tonight will likely see travel problems Wednesday
morning. Temperatures remaining at or below freezing
will result in only slow improvement in travel conditions
through the day tomorrow.
 

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1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said:

I barely believe the 10:1 much less some magical 12:1+ ratio business... although our experience with this kinda stuff is quite limited but it seems like higher ratio = more snow typically yeilds squat around here 

Normally, I agree.  But in this instance, the column will be solidly/significantly below freezing.  Ratios will definitely be higher than 10:1 for most of the storm.

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25 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12km NAM just went BOOM!!! for the western Upstate and NE/E Georgia!!  It's much quicker with cooling the warm bubble area down to freezing as well... has me hitting 32 by 3am.

 

Also, score one for the Rgem... it was showing this 48 hrs out and the NAM models didn't have a clue.

we can always hope.  seeing that snow hole and bubble over our areas the last few days has been very disheartening.  unfortunately, many times it pans out and we get screwed.  I am afraid its a little too late (although I will certainly by waiting with crossed fingers).  its gotten cloudy now but the temp is 48 so I am not really optimistic

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4 minutes ago, MillerA said:

Gsp has gone wwa from charlotte up to Statesville and back to west for 1-3, and not wsw. Updated statement as of 303pm. 

 

303 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT, Snow and black ice expected. Plan on slippery road
conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
Around an inch or less of snow is expected across the
foothills, with one to three inches across much of the Piedmont.

* WHERE, Portions of upstate South Carolina and piedmont and
western North Carolina.

* WHEN, From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS, Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times. Very cold temperatures surging into the area late tonight
and early tomorrow morning will allow any moisture on roads to
quickly freeze, so even locations that receive little snow
accumulation tonight will likely see travel problems Wednesday
morning. Temperatures remaining at or below freezing
will result in only slow improvement in travel conditions
through the day tomorrow.
 

They must be tossing short term guidance ! Smart move! I'm pretty sure 3" is WSW criteria down here, and hi res models are very close to that

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Just now, NEGa said:

we can always hope.  seeing that snow hole and bubble over our areas the last few days has been very disheartening.  unfortunately, many times it pans out and we get screwed.  I am afraid its a little too late (although I will certainly by waiting with crossed fingers).  its gotten cloudy now but the temp is 48 so I am not really optimistic

Your location is a virtual lock for 2 or 3 inches at this point, IMO

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39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Columbia just put out Winter Storm Warnings for it's northern counties. Has upwards of 2". What is the criteria for Winter Storms? I thought it was 3" or greater.



$$

RAH issued advisories well ahead of updating their forecasted totals. My point forecast still has 1-3".

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Your location is a virtual lock for 2 or 3 inches at this point, IMO

I would be happy with an inch at this point lol.  I know lookout and I have talked about that bubble on here in the past - models will show it and a lot of people don't seem to think the models are right, but in the end they were pretty close.  hopefully there will be a bit more moisture and being dark we can get enough colder air to come down to give us some snow.  I saw that the "bubble" had disappeared off the gps site but I am still overly cautious since different models showed it on many consistent runs (although I am work right now and haven't been able to see the latest runs.  I am hoping your post about them is a good sign lol.  the one we had in dec sure did over perform)

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't like that cliff so close to me, but as long as we keep seeing totals inch up, we'll be good.  Anyway, this should be a very, very pretty snowfall.  Enjoy it folks.  We don't see this very often anymore.

Even if the cliff moves, still a good 1-2 inches, which is way more than anyone expected a few days ago at this time.

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

hrrr keeps looking better. now has a band of  0.25 to 0.30 amounts cutting right across the athens areas. in the 0.20 to 0.30 range...even some  amounts near 0.40  now for parts of the northern upstate. 

qpf_acc.us_se.png

thanks for posting that - I am working and can't look at the runs right now lol.  maybe the infamous "nw trend (j/k btw)" will help ne ga as it looks like there is more moisture coming up this way. 

burrell2 - now I see what you are talking about.  if that were to verify then maybe mby won't be shut out lol.  I just hope the temps crash and don't stay too warm too long

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