strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: RAP model has .7 in Rutherford county by hour 21 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Make that half an inch and no seven tenths at FQD Come on now.. You going off map or text? Link... I would cash out right now with .5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, Norwegian Cyclone said: Not sure about Wake County, but Chapel Hill started treating a few roads yesterday (I guess the last storm caught them a bit off guard, lol), and most of the major arteries (15-501, NC 54, etc.) look like they've been brined by now. Would be very surprised if Wake/Durham haven't followed suit. Campus is brined as well. In fact, I crossed the street right after a brine truck passed. Kinda cool seeing it right after it’s come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability... This would be huge for the CLT metro. Storm has the feeling of a mountains robbing moisture situation to me, though. Relatively weak low, no gulf flow, and no Atlantic moisture makes it tough for me to get excited. Hopefully this is finally the one that overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I haven't seen any roads treated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: I haven't seen any roads treated here. They're out. Just saw some on Silas Creek Pkwy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Another interesting KILM AFD.. Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... as of 300 am Tuesday...virtually all 00z model guidance is showing more precipitation on Wednesday than was being shown 24 hours ago. The culprit appears to be a sharper mid and upper level trough now being depicted moving across the area. This leads to winds in the 850-500 mb layer backing by maybe 20 degrees compared to yesterday's model runs, allowing the northern Gulf of Mexico to be briefly tapped as a moisture source and supplementing the meager Pacific moisture that is being routed from the west. Where my quantitative precipitation forecast values were .02 to .04 yesterday, now a tenth of an inch or more is possible across parts of the sandhills. Of course the bigger issue is how much of that quantitative precipitation forecast falls as snow. The GFS is a cooler than the NAM with its low-level thermal profiles which would allow for a more rapid changeover to snow, particularly west of I-95 during the morning hours. The new 00z European model (ecmwf) is a compromise solution between the GFS and NAM, and implies rain should change to snow across Hartsville and Bennettsville by 9 am. Colder air aloft beneath the approaching upper trough will continue to build eastward during the day, offsetting any insolation trying to punch through the clouds and allowing the changeover to occur in Lumberton by noon, and in Elizabethtown and Whiteville by mid afternoon. Given no warm nose aloft, this is likely to be a clean transition from rain to snow without any sleet or freezing rain to deal with. Forecast snowfall accumulations are up to 1 inch from Bennettsville across northern Robeson and Bladen counties, with less than half an inch from Darlington and Dillon to Lumberton and Elizabethtown. Precipitation is not likely to be as significant along the coast as the Gulf of Mexico moisture connection is severed by the time things get going here. Precip should end between 6-9 PM along the coast, but even in Wilmington and Myrtle Beach there could be a brief period of light snow at the tail end of the event. Thinning moisture aloft should preclude any significant snowfall totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RAP goes bonkers over WNC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 sref mean up to 2.1" for clt, up from 1.8" this morning. 3" for rdu. 2" for gsp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Durmite Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Most of Durham roads appear to have been treated already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: RAP goes bonkers over WNC again. Lets see it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 SREF mean is up to 3.5 at GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Rainforrest said: Lets see it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The roads in extreme Northeast North Carolina, at least as far as Pasquotank and Camden counties go have been treated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Serious question: how reliable is the RAP at those longer leads? It has .3 qpf in the Triad by 10am with several more hours of snow to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Serious question: how reliable is the RAP at those longer leads. It has .3 qpf in the Triad by 10am with several more hours of snow to go. That's got to bode well for the Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Serious question: how reliable is the RAP at those longer leads? It has .3 qpf in the Triad by 10am with several more hours of snow to go. To my knowledge, they are not worthy honestly that far out. Take it with a grain of salt. Would love for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Excerpt from the Greenville-Spartanburg Area Weather Discussion at (as of 12:45pm today): "Tonight, the main point of contention is the uptick in precipitation amounts forecast across the far eastern zones, as the strong short wave trough transition from positive to more of a neutral tilt, resulting in an increase in deep layer forcing. This has always been the primary concern with this event (and always is in these situations): whether the increase in precip rates will occur across our area, or more across the central/eastern Carolinas. With the current trends in guidance, a warning will have to be considered for areas roughly east of a Chester->Rock Hill->Concord->Salisbury line (granted this may only include Union Co, NC.)" So it sounds like the NWS is considering upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory in Union County, NC and points east to a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Last call on the snowfall prediction contest. Entries close at 4PM. Reward is now at the max of $100 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50835-jan-16-17-se-snow-prediction-contest-reward/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: Serious question: how reliable is the RAP at those longer leads? It has .3 qpf in the Triad by 10am with several more hours of snow to go. Not reliable. Maybe worse than hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Last call on the snowfall prediction contest. Entries close at 4PM. Reward is now at the max of $100 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50835-jan-16-17-se-snow-prediction-contest-reward/ Too late for me to trim my Norfolk prediction back? That was stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, Poimen said: I haven't seen any roads treated here. All of Greensboro's major roads, atleast near downtown, wendover, friendly center etc have been salted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Too late for me to trim my Norfolk prediction back? That was stupid. You can modify your entry until 4PM....just edit your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 SREF Mean around 3.69" for MBY. Another big increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Precip really moving! Sprinkles and flurries on radar in N Ga, not far from Nc Edit: cold air is sooo close . 31 in Chattanooga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 SREF Mean Precip map has a general increase across the board....noteable area of more precip is in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: SREF Mean around 3.69" for MBY. Another big increase. I think we are going to be just too far north for best precip, we should have nice ratios here but lighter rates. 2 to 3 inches would be my call, could be as low as 1.5 or as high as 4.5 (what NOAA would ay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Too late for me to trim my Norfolk prediction back? That was stupid. Startsies, no quitsies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Startsies, no quitsies! That "c" note got his attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 (RTP proper fully salted.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Havnt seen any salt trucks around GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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