Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

[FallsLake]

Here's the euro model. No snow totals but does have precip types. 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

 

[Poimen]

6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Here's the euro model. No snow totals but does have precip types. 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

 

I thought that site no longer offered those as free? Thanks for posting.

[FallsLake]

Just now, Poimen said:

I thought that site no longer offered those as free? Thanks for posting.

It stopped working for a while, but it's back up. 

[FallsLake]

A couple of thoughts (since it's really slow in here):

* This event came on us pretty quick. Usually we see signs of a potential event by day 8 or so. We start getting excited just to have the models back off at day 5. Not sure why this happens but I've seen it enough to almost expect it. So yesterday the GFS was showing a decent hit. Now it backed off to only show a light event for eastern areas. **6z did push some moisture back westward. So, we could be in the "typical" back off just to slowly have the models (GFS) start to trend better in future runs.

* This type of system requires redevelopment. I'm not sure the models will ever get a good handle on the specifics. As in most cases we may have to wait until Tuesday to see how the radar is looking; and maybe use the short range models.   

[Cheeznado]

My thought is since half of the GFS ensembles and most of the Euro ensembles give us snow in north GA, then we will probably see some. But no member on either model shows much more than an inch or two and most are under an inch, therefore flurries/a dusting seems like the most likely scenario. That short wave has to dig farther west to give us anything more significant and no real sign of that right now. Farther east in the Carolinas, a few inches is possible, but again a really big event seems unlikely at this point. But some time does remain for a change to that, but would like to see a trend in that direction soon since this is now only about 4 days away.

[downeastnc]

17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

A couple of thoughts (since it's really slow in here):

* This event came on us pretty quick. Usually we see signs of a potential event by day 8 or so. We start getting excited just to have the models back off at day 5. Not sure why this happens but I've seen it enough to almost expect it. So yesterday the GFS was showing a decent hit. Now it backed off to only show a light event for eastern areas. **6z did push some moisture back westward. So, we could be in the "typical" back off just to slowly have the models (GFS) start to trend better in future runs.

* This type of system requires redevelopment. I'm not sure the models will ever get a good handle on the specifics. As in most cases we may have to wait until Tuesday to see how the radar is looking; and maybe use the short range models.   

These type of setups are typically over performers when they actually happen....at least that's my experience in the eastern half of the state with this kinda setup. For us it's mostly depending on if and how close that coastal low forms....there have been some big hits here like Feb 1989 where the coastal bombed out but that's a pretty extreme outcome without a strong neg tilt  and is unlikely but we have seen plenty of these end up as 2-5" type events. When the main wave associated with the "clipper" digs way south and goes under ( SW) of the mts and east across SC good things usually happen for NC, and if the coastal low forms close enough you see a pretty good state wide event....I agree the models will handle it poorly till the hi res models get into range Monday....the take away is that just about every single model has some version of this event so the chances that something will happen is pretty high, especially if they all keep it through the day today. 

[FallsLake]

18 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

These type of setups are typically over performers when they actually happen....at least that's my experience in the eastern half of the state with this kinda setup. For us it's mostly depending on if and how close that coastal low forms....there have been some big hits here like Feb 1989 where the coastal bombed out but that's a pretty extreme outcome without a strong neg tilt  and is unlikely but we have seen plenty of these end up as 2-5" type events. When the main wave associated with the "clipper" digs way south and goes under ( SW) of the mts and east across SC good things usually happen for NC, and if the coastal low forms close enough you see a pretty good state wide event....I agree the models will handle it poorly till the hi res models get into range Monday....the take away is that just about every single model has some version of this event so the chances that something will happen is pretty high, especially if they all keep it through the day today. 

I agree. This is the setup that can produce. RAH thinks this as well.

It's fun tracking these types of system (..late development), but it would be nice to track a storm that comes in through southern California and stays together all the way to the east coast.   

[FallsLake]

Looking at the 12z NAM, it doesn't go out far enough for our event; but it does look like its digging more to the SW at hour 84.  

[griteater]

^ Thought that was a good post from Cheez.  We had improvements with the look of the wave yesterday morning. Since then we've had a slight pullback, but nothing major. My guess/hunch though is that we don't see good improvements going forward...we'll see

[FallsLake]

16 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Thought that was a good post from Cheez.  We had improvements with the look of the wave yesterday morning. Since then we've had a slight pullback, but nothing major. My guess/hunch though is that we don't see good improvements going forward...we'll see

Might very well be. Of course I still like the look of the Euro. That would give my area a nice event, but also give some snow to others across this board.

And I always think there will be more precip development to the north and west.  

[Cold Rain]

30 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Thought that was a good post from Cheez.  We had improvements with the look of the wave yesterday morning. Since then we've had a slight pullback, but nothing major. My guess/hunch though is that we don't see good improvements going forward...we'll see

We could very well see a step away for the next 24 hrs or so and then return to a solution that brings a light rain changing to light snow scenario for Central NC.  It’s not an ideal setup, but it’s workable and certainly has legit potential for a couple of inches.

[PackGrad05]

In my experience, rain changing to snow scenarios do not usually work well for central NC.   Takes too long for changeover and then precip has hard time sticking.   Temps really warm on Tuesday.  

[Poimen]

The GFS is a bit juicier at 84 hours compared to previous runs. Lets see if that translates east of the mountains. 

[WarmNose]

It's been pretty warm here the past week all the way into the gulf and southeastern coastline. One would think there would be enough instability to get some decent moisture up this way regardless of the cold push

[Poimen]

More qpf for the Triad this time but overall not much of anything for anyone on the GFS.

[Poimen]

GGEM is nearly a complete blank, too. 

[mrdaddyman]

6 minutes ago, Poimen said:

More qpf for the Triad this time but overall not much of anything for anyone on the GFS.

 

3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

GGEM is nearly a complete blank, too. 

Ugh. Hope this is the usual 4-5 day jitters that some of the models usually suffer from before they get back on board. As long as we get another good run from the Euro at 12Z I'll feel more confident about this thing panning out.

[BullCityWx]

17 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

In my experience, rain changing to snow scenarios do not usually work well for central NC.   Takes too long for changeover and then precip has hard time sticking.   Temps really warm on Tuesday.  

1/23/03 says hello. So does 3/1/09z . 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

1/23/03 says hello. So does 3/1/09z . 

It can definitely happen, but it isn't the kind of setup that is most favorable.  There are more cases than not when the rain just doesn't changeover until it is too late.  Mixing issues, more rain, etc...

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

1/23/03 says hello. So does 3/1/09z . 

what model?

[strongwxnc]

1/23/03 says hello. So does 3/1/09z . 

1/23/03 had a great lee side max!



.

[FallsLake]

GFS and CMC still show something. That is very important. We’re going to have to get much closer to this event before amounts can be determined. 

[Poimen]

At 72 HR the UKMET is really beefy with precip over TN. And the ICON has really beeffed up qpf over central/eastern NC on Wednesday. 

[Red1976Red]

Redevelopement is always tricky as I know there have be many storms like this trend too Far East. No telling if the cutoff line will be south-west NC, the foothills, Greensboro, or Raleigh at this stage. 

[PackGrad05]

I think we will see precip in the mountain region and then transition to Raleigh/east.  More of a miller B.  Not sure I like the triad/western piedmont for this set up.  

[snowlover91]

I wouldn’t trust globals too much on qpf output at this stage, wait until we get in range of the NAM and then we will start to have a better idea. Overall a light event looks most likely for now but the way the nam is digging the energy it might would have a better surface depiction. 

[Red1976Red]

Amounts are sure to be greater the further away you get from the crest of the blue ridge, I don’t ever recall any max being there on a redevelopment scenario. I threw out the 6” totals in a heartbeat here when I saw north Georgia and south-west NC blanked. Too difficult in this scenario to score for some west of and near 77.

[PGAWx]

Euro drier this run?

[Poimen]

EURO with light amounts between GSO and RDU...a little higher totals east of RDU. 

[WeatherNC]

Euro is spitting hundredths where as most of us are looking for something in the tenths.