wake4est Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Fishel just tweeted that has was being too cautious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 latest hrrr continues to be encouraging....if not exciting for the upstate/nc piedmont...totals through 18 and snowing pretty hard in places. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 49 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Just catching up on lunch break. I had pretty much written this one off last night. Give me some lee enhancement surprise in the morning! I will hope for a surprise too but I do not see much to get excited about in extreme NEGA, NW Upstate. We are in that ever present bubble with warmth and downslopping, and only the RGEM and CMC give us anything appreciable. We're too close to the lee to get in on much of that regeneration, per most models, and per climo. I'm sure we'll see some flurries or maybe even a dusting but does not look good for West of Greenville. Looks like most of the board will see snowfall and many will see at least small accums, but we're going to have a hard time in our pocket with this set up. Plus, Temp already 47 at Greenville with clouds thickening fast, gonna be hard to get below 32. Whatever precip we do get it likely to be wasted in virga, cooling the column, and just plain rain at the surface. Maybe we'll get a little something, but this one isn't our set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: Totally agree. HRRR has somewhere due south of AVL getting half a foot, too. Roughly between Brevard and Hendersonville. Typical upslope areas for the southern mountains. Between Highlands and Saluda. Brevard, Etowah, Mills River and HVL usually cash in as well. It will be interesting to see if the HRRR verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That was not the EURO run I was looking for my area.. barely 2 inches here and worse than last run, guidance keeps trending south with best divergence. Raleigh peeps are sitting pretty though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: That was not the EURO run I was looking for my area.. barely 2 inches here and worse than last run, guidance keeps trending south with best divergence. Raleigh peeps are sitting pretty though! Short range models look much better imo tho man. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Gonna try to look at GSO soundings and figure out ratios tonight. They will increase everywhere as event unfolds: Should be fun: For Refernce: .3 qpf @10/1 is 3 inches,: @15/1 is 4.5 inches: @20/1 is 6 inches .4qpf @ 10/1 is 4 inches: @15/1 is 6 inches: @20/1 is 8 inches .5qpf @ 10/1 is 5 inches @ 15/1 is 7.5 inches @ 20/1 is 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Winter weather advisory, hard freeze warning and wind chill warning for the Florida gulf coast right now. Dusting to an inch predicted all the way to the beaches here in escambia and Santa Rosa counties. All schools closed for tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: Fishel just tweeted that has was being too cautious.... here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It was going on yesterday on 40 and the major roads. I think even most of the secondary roads around me have been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WakeCountyWX said: here it is That's as close to a Burger "Boom!" as he get's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, WakeCountyWX said: here it is Based on the consistency of the models, I'd say 4 inches is a safe bet for most of central NC, with up to 6 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. Yes they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackLeader13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. I saw some treated roads on my way to work from Apex to Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, uncjibble said: I'm so hesitant to get excited after so many RDU busts recently. I said that I was done getting excited, but this one is reeling me back in! Me too. I know that people keep saying not to worry about the temperature but it’s just nagging at me. Temps have always been a problem for us so starting at 10:00 a.m. concerns me. I think that we’ve just been burned so much that I’m jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. Yes in Cary back through Chatham Co. They started yesterday at lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. All of the roads in Northern Wake County that I have driven on today have been treated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. Not sure about Wake County, but Chapel Hill started treating a few roads yesterday (I guess the last storm caught them a bit off guard, lol), and most of the major arteries (15-501, NC 54, etc.) look like they've been brined by now. Would be very surprised if Wake/Durham haven't followed suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Awesome. Ground temps across the triangle are cold right now. Looks like many will start this event with grounds below freezing. I’m in Wendell at college and it’s very strange outside. The sun is very bright but not very warm feeling. It’s crisp outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 RAP model has .7 in Rutherford county by hour 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, frazdaddy said: That's as close to a Burger "Boom!" as he get's now. I have mixed feelings about all of this probability forecasting now. All you have to do is look at an ensemble suite and punch some numbers into a calculator and boom, there's your public forecast. An 80% chance of at least 1", a 30% chance of at least 2", and a 4% chance of at least 4". You can produce that all day long without one time giving one nugget of info about what you actually think will happen, which is why I thought we had trained forecasters in the first place. Climatology, analogs, historical experience, data interpretation, current conditions, what's happening upstream -- a weather forecaster should incorporate all of those things and actually put out a forecast. Use the uncertainty forecasting/probability forecasting as a framework around your actual forecast, but make a call that isn't just something I can calculate on my own at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. 540 was treated yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: RAP model has .7 in Rutherford county by hour 21 I am at work. Does it still look good for Buncombe? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have mixed feelings about all of this probability forecasting now. All you have to do is look at an ensemble suite and punch some numbers into a calculator and boom, there's your public forecast. An 80% chance of at least 1", a 30% chance of at least 2", and a 4% chance of at least 4". You can produce that all day long without one time giving one nugget of info about what you actually think will happen, which is why I thought we had trained forecasters in the first place. Climatology, analogs, historical experience, data interpretation, current conditions, what's happening upstream -- a weather forecaster should incorporate all of those things and actually put out a forecast. Use the uncertainty forecasting/probability forecasting as a framework around your actual forecast, but make a call that isn't just something I can calculate on my own at home. I agree. That's why I like it here so much. We have some folks with good experience and knowledge that are not encumbered by whether they are right or wrong on any given storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowinnc said: Me too. I know that people keep saying not to worry about the temperature but it’s just nagging at me. Temps have always been a problem for us so starting at 10:00 a.m. concerns me. I think that we’ve just been burned so much that I’m jaded. I'm as jaded as you are, but the snow should start falling early morning. We only have another hour or so of appreciable heating left today. It's currently 45/18 in the heat island at RDU. Hopefully, we get keep the skies clear enough through the early evening to allow the boundary to cool. The layer of "warm" air at the surface is very, very shallow with CAA inbound all day tomorrow. The timing of the precip couldn't be better. Ground temps are fine. There is broad agreement amongst virtually every model that RDU will get at least .3" of precipitation. Unless something drastic changes in the next 12 hours, you're getting snow, and you will like it! As we move closer into the event, the list of things that can ruin a snow event is growing shorter and shorter. I know this is an unusual and frightening trend, but I think we should just go with it. Snow Killers: Precip starting in the late afternoon: Nope Warm ground: Nope WAA aloft: Nope Gulf Convection: Nope Super dry boundary layer: Nope Super deep warm boundary layer: Nope Residual warm nose aloft: Nope Clipper too far north: Nope Dry slot: Nope It's hard to find a reason not to feel pretty confident of at least 2-3". I'm thinking we just go with it this rock and roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Make that half an inch and no seven tenths at FQD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: I am at work. Does it still look good for Buncombe? Thanks in advance. I’m not really excited about Buncombe but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurhamHeel Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Does anyone in the Wake county area know if they have started treating roads? NWS still very conservative right now. The public is expect 2 inches.. Driving on I-85 yesterday, the digital board signs in Durham were displaying messages saying that road treatments had begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I’m not really excited about Buncombe but we’ll see Yeah, me neither, but looking for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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