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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:11 PM, SnowDawg said:

Not for GA... ☹️ I’m convinced that this area of Northeast Georgia outside of the mountains is one of the hardest places in the country to get snow... Year after year now of watching it snow in every direction at some point, while being lucky to see flurries.

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As i told someone else earlier, when there is not CAD, it truly is. But chances have gone up for the athens area. Looks like the greatest chance of a screw job will be gainesville up to toccoa. But for athens..and especially east of athens, chances have certainly improved over earlier. It looks like whatever falls after midnight will be snow...a little sooner west of town/later east of town. if the band is solid, we could end up with about a 6 hour period of snow looks to be possible for athens. As i noted earlier, i wouldn't be surprised if there is an area of enhanced precip totals from columbus through the athens area into sc. Best chance for accumulation is from 08z to 12z...fortunately by that time temps should be in the upper 20s. An inch or two is not out of the question at all for athens imo. 

Of course, take it all with a giant grain of salt. if the band fails to come back together again a little too late or CAA is not quite as fast as expected...totals would be less. 

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:24 PM, griteater said:

The area that I like the best for top snowfall is the general area around Pinehurst....matches up well with giving the band time to fully develop in the foothills and piedmont before moving east.  RGEM and hi res NAMs like this area, as does the Q-Vector convergence maps I posted.

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No way we top out on this one after getting nearly 6 with earlier in the months virga fiasco... but seeing you say that makes me feel all excited and stuff :wub:

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HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability...

refcmp.us_ma (1).png

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:28 PM, Lookout said:

As i told someone else earlier, when there is not CAD, it truly is. But chances have gone up for the athens area. Looks like the greatest chance of a screw job will be gainesville up to toccoa. But for athens..and especially east of athens, chances have certainly improved over earlier. It looks like whatever falls after midnight will be snow...a little sooner west of town/later east of town. if the band is solid, we could end up with about a 6 hour period of snow looks to be possible for athens. As i noted earlier, i wouldn't be surprised if there is an area of enhanced precip totals from columbus through the athens area into sc. Best chance for accumulation is from 08z to 12z...fortunately by that time temps should be in the upper 20s. An inch or two is not out of the question at all for athens imo. 

Of course, take it all with a giant grain of salt. if the band fails to come back together again a little too late or CAA is not quite as fast as expected...totals would be less. 

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That’s great to hear. I thought things were looking better especially just east of Athens. Honestly only hoping for an inch. I’ve learned not to be greedy around here. And even that would be one of the bigger snows in recent memory.

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:33 PM, wncsnow said:

HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability...

refcmp.us_ma (1).png

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Totally agree. HRRR has somewhere due south of AVL getting half a foot, too. Roughly between Brevard and Hendersonville.

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:33 PM, wncsnow said:

HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability...

refcmp.us_ma (1).png

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Also supports what Grit was saying about Pinehurst. Ahh Carywx nija'd me. Gotta say that band over my place is cool to see.

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:28 PM, Lookout said:

As i told someone else earlier, when there is not CAD, it truly is. But chances have gone up for the athens area. Looks like the greatest chance of a screw job will be gainesville up to toccoa. But for athens..and especially east of athens, chances have certainly improved over earlier. It looks like whatever falls after midnight will be snow...a little sooner west of town/later east of town. if the band is solid, we could end up with about a 6 hour period of snow looks to be possible for athens. As i noted earlier, i wouldn't be surprised if there is an area of enhanced precip totals from columbus through the athens area into sc. Best chance for accumulation is from 08z to 12z...fortunately by that time temps should be in the upper 20s. An inch or two is not out of the question at all for athens imo. 

Of course, take it all with a giant grain of salt. if the band fails to come back together again a little too late or CAA is not quite as fast as expected...totals would be less. 

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Would you potentially include Atlanta in the Columbus to Athens potential region or does Atlanta look to be too far west in your opinion?  Thanks 

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:44 PM, Cold Rain said:

Yep.  Grit's pretty good.  We just need to shift his thinking a few miles west. :)

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Fyp. You're welcome. :lol:

It seems like most guidance except the gfs has clt with at least 2 inches. Considering the type of storm setup this is, I'll take that. Hope you Raleigh guys get a good thump as I know it's overdue...and we won't have to listen to your whining anymore! ;):D jk.

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AKQ mentioned in their revised AFD that WWA will probably be extended into SE VA and extreme NE NC during the next package due to QPF increases on the 12Z runs.

 

That being said, what are the chances for ORF and ECG to see higher than 2" of accums based on current trends? It seems that the main axis of heavy precip is still central NC into central VA.

 

 

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As someone who doesn't know a lot about weather other than what I've learned on this board, could someone that is more knowledgeable explain this set up? I'm interested in learning more about the types of systems we get. It seems like most of the time we have have a low tracking up the coast right after a cold front comes through and that brings us a chance based on the track of the low but that's not the case here. This seems to be more of a cold front with precip following behind it? I thought precip typically comes in advance of a front. I'd like to learn more about the different possible setups for snow around here.

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  On 1/16/2018 at 5:58 PM, uncjibble said:
As someone who doesn't know a lot about weather other than what I've learned on this board, could someone that is more knowledgeable explain this set up? I'm interested in learning more about the types of systems we get. It seems like most of the time we have have a low tracking up the coast right after a cold front comes through and that brings us a chance based on the track of the low but that's not the case here. This seems to be more of a cold front with precip following behind it? I thought precip typically comes in advance of a front. I'd like to learn more about the different possible setups for snow around here.

It's basically a clipper system. Its an upper level low moving through with an associated front with possible development of a low off the coast.

 

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  On 1/16/2018 at 6:01 PM, Cold Rain said:

Any increase there at all or is it about the same?  Just curious if it's carrying the same trends as the mesos.

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I think it's going to be about the same for Raleigh.  It's quite similar overall, but instead of max precip being from Raleigh into VA, it's Raleigh to Fayetteville/Pinehurst

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