Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:24 PM, CaryWx said: Poiman, Can you post his call map? Expand Here's a link to the tweet: https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/953303649656164354 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RAH is on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:11 PM, SnowDawg said: Not for GA... ☹️ I’m convinced that this area of Northeast Georgia outside of the mountains is one of the hardest places in the country to get snow... Year after year now of watching it snow in every direction at some point, while being lucky to see flurries. Expand As i told someone else earlier, when there is not CAD, it truly is. But chances have gone up for the athens area. Looks like the greatest chance of a screw job will be gainesville up to toccoa. But for athens..and especially east of athens, chances have certainly improved over earlier. It looks like whatever falls after midnight will be snow...a little sooner west of town/later east of town. if the band is solid, we could end up with about a 6 hour period of snow looks to be possible for athens. As i noted earlier, i wouldn't be surprised if there is an area of enhanced precip totals from columbus through the athens area into sc. Best chance for accumulation is from 08z to 12z...fortunately by that time temps should be in the upper 20s. An inch or two is not out of the question at all for athens imo. Of course, take it all with a giant grain of salt. if the band fails to come back together again a little too late or CAA is not quite as fast as expected...totals would be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:24 PM, griteater said: The area that I like the best for top snowfall is the general area around Pinehurst....matches up well with giving the band time to fully develop in the foothills and piedmont before moving east. RGEM and hi res NAMs like this area, as does the Q-Vector convergence maps I posted. Expand No way we top out on this one after getting nearly 6 with earlier in the months virga fiasco... but seeing you say that makes me feel all excited and stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:28 PM, Lookout said: As i told someone else earlier, when there is not CAD, it truly is. But chances have gone up for the athens area. Looks like the greatest chance of a screw job will be gainesville up to toccoa. But for athens..and especially east of athens, chances have certainly improved over earlier. It looks like whatever falls after midnight will be snow...a little sooner west of town/later east of town. if the band is solid, we could end up with about a 6 hour period of snow looks to be possible for athens. As i noted earlier, i wouldn't be surprised if there is an area of enhanced precip totals from columbus through the athens area into sc. Best chance for accumulation is from 08z to 12z...fortunately by that time temps should be in the upper 20s. An inch or two is not out of the question at all for athens imo. Of course, take it all with a giant grain of salt. if the band fails to come back together again a little too late or CAA is not quite as fast as expected...totals would be less. Expand That’s great to hear. I thought things were looking better especially just east of Athens. Honestly only hoping for an inch. I’ve learned not to be greedy around here. And even that would be one of the bigger snows in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:33 PM, wncsnow said: HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability... Expand Totally agree. HRRR has somewhere due south of AVL getting half a foot, too. Roughly between Brevard and Hendersonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:08 PM, wncsnow said: The RAP looks to ease worries for leeside downslopers.. This is only through 21 hours and much more will fall in Piedmont areas Expand HRRR, HRRX, CMC, and RGEM looking really good for leeside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Also can really see the re-formation beginning to pick up in the eastern piedmont there as well on HRRR. Grit may be right, looks like it is expanding in the Pinehurst area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR at hour 18 has KEHO at 0.2 VIS and +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:33 PM, wncsnow said: HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability... Expand Also supports what Grit was saying about Pinehurst. Ahh Carywx nija'd me. Gotta say that band over my place is cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:41 PM, frazdaddy said: Also supports what Grit was saying about Pinehurst. Expand Yep. Grit's pretty good. We just need to shift his thinking a few miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:36 PM, Queencitywx said: Totally agree. HRRR has somewhere due south of AVL getting half a foot, too. Roughly between Brevard and Hendersonville. Expand If this pans out Saluda NC could do well, 6" - 8" might not be out of the question depending on direction of the up slope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:28 PM, Lookout said: As i told someone else earlier, when there is not CAD, it truly is. But chances have gone up for the athens area. Looks like the greatest chance of a screw job will be gainesville up to toccoa. But for athens..and especially east of athens, chances have certainly improved over earlier. It looks like whatever falls after midnight will be snow...a little sooner west of town/later east of town. if the band is solid, we could end up with about a 6 hour period of snow looks to be possible for athens. As i noted earlier, i wouldn't be surprised if there is an area of enhanced precip totals from columbus through the athens area into sc. Best chance for accumulation is from 08z to 12z...fortunately by that time temps should be in the upper 20s. An inch or two is not out of the question at all for athens imo. Of course, take it all with a giant grain of salt. if the band fails to come back together again a little too late or CAA is not quite as fast as expected...totals would be less. Expand Would you potentially include Atlanta in the Columbus to Athens potential region or does Atlanta look to be too far west in your opinion? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 2:24 PM, Lookout said: lol for real. what's funny is after following this model for a little while, it tends to have a dry bias. Expand Just catching up on lunch break. I had pretty much written this one off last night. Give me some lee enhancement surprise in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:45 PM, The Alchemist said: If this pans out Saluda NC could do well, 6" - 8" might not be out of the question depending on direction of the up slope Expand Definitely could see Saluda doing well if this lee side enhancement occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:44 PM, Cold Rain said: Yep. Grit's pretty good. We just need to shift his thinking a few miles east. Expand You know how those predicted bullseyes work out though, probably will shift some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Personally, I'm not as big on the southern escarpment areas in this setup. They crush it with gulf lows and SE 850mb flow. Don't have that this time. Some snow there, but not heavy...just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Out to 24 on the Euro. It's coming in colder at the surface in SC...precip looks fine so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Solid precip band again on the Euro. Max precip band shifted south slightly....inline with hi-res trends...looks just fine and dandy for Pinehurst to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:44 PM, Cold Rain said: Yep. Grit's pretty good. We just need to shift his thinking a few miles west. Expand Fyp. You're welcome. It seems like most guidance except the gfs has clt with at least 2 inches. Considering the type of storm setup this is, I'll take that. Hope you Raleigh guys get a good thump as I know it's overdue...and we won't have to listen to your whining anymore! jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 AKQ mentioned in their revised AFD that WWA will probably be extended into SE VA and extreme NE NC during the next package due to QPF increases on the 12Z runs. That being said, what are the chances for ORF and ECG to see higher than 2" of accums based on current trends? It seems that the main axis of heavy precip is still central NC into central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 As someone who doesn't know a lot about weather other than what I've learned on this board, could someone that is more knowledgeable explain this set up? I'm interested in learning more about the types of systems we get. It seems like most of the time we have have a low tracking up the coast right after a cold front comes through and that brings us a chance based on the track of the low but that's not the case here. This seems to be more of a cold front with precip following behind it? I thought precip typically comes in advance of a front. I'd like to learn more about the different possible setups for snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:58 PM, uncjibble said: As someone who doesn't know a lot about weather other than what I've learned on this board, could someone that is more knowledgeable explain this set up? I'm interested in learning more about the types of systems we get. It seems like most of the time we have have a low tracking up the coast right after a cold front comes through and that brings us a chance based on the track of the low but that's not the case here. This seems to be more of a cold front with precip following behind it? I thought precip typically comes in advance of a front. I'd like to learn more about the different possible setups for snow around here.It's basically a clipper system. Its an upper level low moving through with an associated front with possible development of a low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:56 PM, griteater said: Solid precip band again on the Euro. Max precip band shifted south slightly....inline with hi-res trends...looks just fine and dandy for Pinehurst to Raleigh Expand Any increase there at all or is it about the same? Just curious if it's carrying the same trends as the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Anybody else seem concerned that it looks like the main precip shield is starting to fall apart in Eastern TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 nice band of snow from clt up to rdu at 7am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Currently 37 degrees at ECG on a forecasted high of 50… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 6:01 PM, Cold Rain said: Any increase there at all or is it about the same? Just curious if it's carrying the same trends as the mesos. Expand I think it's going to be about the same for Raleigh. It's quite similar overall, but instead of max precip being from Raleigh into VA, it's Raleigh to Fayetteville/Pinehurst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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