CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:52 PM, Cold Rain said: Who’s got the UK? Where’s everybody at? Expand yeah, and where's packbacker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:51 PM, lilj4425 said: Hopefully that initial batch of rain doesn’t hurt us. Expand I feel like we already know the answer to that question. Latest HRRR did not look so good with 2m temps. 850's are fine but what does it matter if you're at 42 degrees the last 300 feet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:52 PM, Cold Rain said: Who’s got the UK? Where’s everybody at? Expand I’m at work on my lunch break. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 4:20 PM, NCSNOW said: I only make one call map for an event and just for my neck of the woods: Not one to waffle and adjust every 6hrs leading into an event. If it Bust Ill loose zero paid subscriptions lol. Anyway seen enough and for Forsyth,Davidson,Guilford,Randolph going with 2-5. Think if there is a chance for anyone to lollipop and kiss the 6 inch mark its somewhere in the 85 corridor. So we'll see how she turns out. Expand Almost kick off time and Im sticking to my guns from 24 hrs ago (1st and only call map). Am I Underdone, Time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:50 PM, ncskywarn said: Interesting that all of those are totally based on the American models and today's 12Z GFS is not included in there. Expand It was posted before it was updated. Here's the new one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:50 PM, ncskywarn said: Interesting that all of those are totally based on the American models and today's 12Z GFS is not included in there. Expand The American models are all that Meteogram uses. 12z GFS came in at 3.4" snow for RDU. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=10&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:52 PM, Cold Rain said: Who’s got the UK? Where’s everybody at? Expand I’m at old Edwards inn getting lunch. Beautiful day outside btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:53 PM, CaryWx said: yeah, and where's packbacker Expand I don’t know. He’s probably messing with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 UKEMT looked good, very similar to previous run: juicy across almost the entire piedmont. Waiting for the total qpf, but it's good. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=12&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Stepping away from QPF for a moment... These charts show Q-Vector Divergence in blue shading (sinking motion), while the Q-Vector Convergence is in red shading (rising motion). Flipping through the charts, you can see how the Q-Vector convergence congeals in E GA thru the Carolinas as the trough bottoms out and swings through. This gives credence to a nice precip band moving through these areas. In comparison, if you backtrack and look at the convergence thru the southern plains, it's not as stout there even though they've had some good precip in areas. The other thing I notice is that the convergence swings through the heart of the Carolinas as opposed to moving NE into VA. This may give some credence to how the hi-res models are focusing more of the precip through the Carolinas as opposed to the north in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:57 PM, Cold Rain said: I don’t know. He’s probably messing with us. Expand He needs to be in on this. This may be his storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:59 PM, griteater said: Stepping away from QPF for a moment... These charts show Q-Vector Divergence in blue shading (sinking motion), while the Q-Vector Convergence is in red shading (rising motion). Flipping through the charts, you can see how the Q-Vector convergence congeals in E GA thru the Carolinas as the trough bottoms out and swings through. This gives credence to a nice precip band moving through these areas. In comparison, if you backtrack and look at the convergence thru the southern plains, it's not as stout there even though they've had some good precip in areas. The other thing I notice is that the convergence swings through the heart of the Carolinas as opposed to moving NE into VA. This may give some credence to how the hi-res models are focusing more of the precip through the Carolinas as opposed to the north in VA. Expand Great post grit,makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 good pick up grit. would explain this somewhat sw trend on the higher precip fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 What are the chances RAH upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Radar returns looking worse as depicted on some of the short-range, high-res models. Hopefully that jet streak will do its "thing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:09 PM, Poimen said: What are the chances RAH upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings? Expand I would say less than 50% but if later guidance continues trending maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The UKMET has a general .3-.4 qpf across the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:08 PM, wncsnow said: The RAP looks to ease worries for leeside downslopers.. This is only through 21 hours and much more will fall in Piedmont areas Expand Not for GA... ☹️ I’m convinced that this area of Northeast Georgia outside of the mountains is one of the hardest places in the country to get snow... Year after year now of watching it snow in every direction at some point, while being lucky to see flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:09 PM, Poimen said: What are the chances RAH upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings? Expand Based on latest data, 95% chance they upgrade at afternoon package. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Latest RAP continues to give SW NC, AVL, and foothills areas a good snow as it sets up a nice band there tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:09 PM, Poimen said: What are the chances RAH upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings? Expand They could wait until the event is occurring and update as needed. Kind of like the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 DT going with 4-7" along the entirety of the I-85 corridor (Charlotte to RIC,more or less). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 4:57 PM, Solak said: The American models are all that Meteogram uses. 12z GFS came in at 3.4" snow for RDU. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=10&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Expand Thanks for sharing that link Solak. I've never seen that one before. I have it bookmarked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:14 PM, Poimen said: DT going with 4-7" along the entirety of the I-85 corridor (more or less). Expand Going into South Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:17 PM, No snow for you said: Going into South Carolina? Expand Sorry, I made the edit: from just north of Charlotte to RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Update for you guys down east. High clouds are just now rolling into the mountains, so if you’re counting on clouds to cap the temps, don’t. Just a heads up. Still think you guys are going to do great though! Best of luck and I hope all of you get a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:13 PM, wncsnow said: Latest RAP continues to give SW NC, AVL, and foothills areas a good snow as it sets up a nice band there tonight Expand Typical upslope areas for a storm of this nature, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:20 PM, BooneWX said: Update for you guys down east. High clouds are just now rolling into the mountains, so if you’re counting on clouds to cap the temps, don’t. Just a heads up. Still think you guys are going to do great though! Best of luck and I hope all of you get a ton. Expand I'm actually hoping they hold off until after sunset. Let the temp drop some under clear skies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The area that I like the best for top snowfall is the general area around Pinehurst....matches up well with giving the band time to fully develop in the foothills and piedmont before moving east. RGEM and hi res NAMs like this area, as does the Q-Vector convergence maps I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 5:18 PM, Poimen said: Sorry, I made the edit: from just north of Charlotte to RIC. Expand Poiman, Can you post his call map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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