Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: I don’t think I’ve ever seen them confidently forecast 4+ somewhere. They’re doing the right thing for TV. A broad 2” is enough for people to take seriously. I think the last time was December of 2000. That was the nail in the coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I would probably lean toward the broader precip footprint ideas of the global models (GFS, Euro, UKMet, CMC)....but look at the NAM/RGEM to hone in on where relative mins/maxes could occur Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! already 42 also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andersonSCgirl Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Me, Oconeexman, and lookout will hug the Hrrrx! What is this model again? lol Anxious to see what the rgem looks like... Add andersonSCgirl to that list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! already 42 also! Since when do you listen to the weather channel forecasts? You should know how to look at soundings as well as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! already 42 also! LOL. I used to have a screenshot of TWC forecasting rain for me while it was snowing outside, had been for a couple hours, and we ended up with at least 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! already 42 also! GSP saying rain in the mountains for several hours today before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The RAP looks to ease worries for leeside downslopers.. This is only through 21 hours and much more will fall in Piedmont areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I think the last time was December of 2000. That was the nail in the coffin. That was the storm that made Fishel get ultra-conservative. He posted totals equaling Carolina Crusher totals from earlier in the year. The storm shifted east and was not as strong, no snow in Raleigh. Since then it has been a few inches at best. They did forecast more than 4" for last January's system - but that fizzled due to warm nose: http://www.wral.com/weather/image_gallery/16401198/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Interesting little lollipop there in SC from the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said: Interesting little lollipop there in SC from the CMC. Check please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Our local 4 met, CJ, showed the euro snow map for around here, and lots of 2.7" totals all around, but said he's tossing it! lol ! Said if the " perfect storm " happened, highest totals would be capped at 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said: Interesting little lollipop there in SC from the CMC. That's odd, that's like 6"+, where 90% of the models have had a snow minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m late on this one, but this looks like a typical winter storm where I-95 mysteriously blocks/melts snow for NE SC? Is that accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looks like radar is breaking up. Might skip right over Birmingham and redevelop south of us. The RGEM though shows snow until 1am for here. The nam and gfs show quite a bit less than that. Only light amount for about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's odd, that's like 6"+, where 90% of the models have had a snow minimum Lookout and burrell were talking about this earlier how the warm air bubble that usually hangs out in our area on the immediate lee side of the mtns. could possible be our friend this time. Will see.... beats seeing the dreaded snowhole that has been showing for a couple of days now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR has temperatures rising in the upstate as precip pushes through. Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RE: soil temps/accums on pavement. 1. I took a very unscientific reading of my soil temp this morning (food thermometer) and found it to be 31 degrees. That's not moving much today. 2. In the early December storm, everything was covered, including the roads, after several days of temperatures well into the 60s, and that while it was snowing during daylight hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Lookout and burrell were talking about this earlier how the warm air bubble that usually hangs out in our area on the immediate lee side of the mtns. could possible be our friend this time. Will see.... beats seeing the dreaded snowhole that has been showing for a couple of days now! Interesting geography/atmospheric interactions. According to the CMC, a ot of that falls after 24hr is all I can tell. Tidbits isn't showing the 6hr avenged precip for me past 24hr. Band appears to have mostly pushed through there by then with only about 2in accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: HRRR has temperatures rising in the upstate as precip pushes through. Here we go http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# 850s are already well below freezing and moving SE I honestly would be more concerned with precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Lookout and burrell were talking about this earlier how the warm air bubble that usually hangs out in our area on the immediate lee side of the mtns. could possible be our friend this time. Will see.... beats seeing the dreaded snowhole that has been showing for a couple of days now! Well - there you go. If that verifies, a paper needs to be written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RE: soil temps/accums on pavement. 1. I took a very unscientific reading of my soil temp this morning (food thermometer) and found it to be 31 degrees. That's not moving much today. 2. In the early December storm, everything was covered, including the roads, after several days of temperatures well into the 60s, and that while it was snowing during daylight hours! Absolutely. Soil temps on average are 5 or 6 degrees colder now compared to what they normally are on average when it snows due to the recent cold outbreak.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 First time poster, long time observer here.. which is the most reliable short term model at this range in terms of precipitation amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 its nearly now casting time for many BUT this product will be extremely useful from the HRRR in the coming hours. Notice the leeside enhancement the HRRR is showing. Consequently those areas are seeing 3-4 inches on the latest HRRR. This storm has a surprising amount of energy to work with. Even with a positive to neutral tilt this storm should really put out some nice snow across a large potion of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: First time poster, long time observer here.. which is the most reliable short term model at this range in terms of precipitation amounts? The HRRR within 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: its nearly now casting time for many BUT this product will be extremely useful from the HRRR in the coming hours. Notice the leeside enhancement the HRRR is showing. Consequently those areas are seeing 3-4 inches on the latest HRRR. This storm has a surprising amount of energy to work with. Even with a positive to neutral tilt this storm should really put out some nice snow across a large potion of the area The euro kinda showed enhancement in the same area last night, briefly. I think I saw it a few other places in addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Graphic is from Meteogram.. NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago Every forecast has a range of possible outcomes. Here are some model produced outcomes for this upcoming snow event in #Raleigh #NCwx. While none of these forecasts will be 100% correct, understanding the distributions are helpful for our forecasters who try to account for each! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Solak said: Graphic is from Meteogram.. NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago Every forecast has a range of possible outcomes. Here are some model produced outcomes for this upcoming snow event in #Raleigh #NCwx. While none of these forecasts will be 100% correct, understanding the distributions are helpful for our forecasters who try to account for each! Interesting that all of those are totally based on the American models and today's 12Z GFS is not included in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hopefully that initial batch of rain doesn’t hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Who’s got the UK? Where’s everybody at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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