Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looks like the RGEM beefed up totals and shifted the axis west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Using bufkit, I've come up with a mean snow ratio from the 12z NAM of 14.75:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I keep screaming this but if there was ever going to be an event to overperform, THIS IS IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Lookout - checkout how the RGEM keeps light precip going in the upstate after the band rolls through like you mentioned earlier - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I made a post somewhat related to this last night - I believe that frontogenesis plays a roll there as the cold air approaches from the NW and runs into the relative warm bubble over the Upper Savannah River Valley...which packs the isotherms (frontogenesis aiding lift), and it can be slow to breakdown - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50810-potential-117-118-threat/?do=findComment&comment=4781339 HRRX as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, very true. What most people don't realize is that a couple tenths of precip makes a lot of difference in accums, not that they know how to measure it anyway. Sticking a ruler deep into a mulch bed or thicket doesn't yield as much snow depth as you think! And you never hear any complaints that it only rained .3" when we were promised .6" (unless Shetley is posting). Just doing the limited number of forecast maps that I've done on here, making a forecast map that ends up being accurate is a whole lot harder than it may seem. As the old saying goes, "it's going to snow where it wants to snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Mets who downplay this are not doing a service to their communities. There will obviously be banding in this. I would rather urge caution rather than saying roads will not be that bad or 0 inches. People look to us and head what we say. This event has a likely possiblity of over preforming models. Don't treat this lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like the RGEM beefed up totals and shifted the axis west a bit. After looking it over it looks similar with QPF distribution but areas NW of Raleigh get some higher ratios, which is the reason for the slight shift in Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: After looking it over it looks similar with QPF distribution but areas NW of Raleigh get some higher ratios, which is the reason for the slight shift in Kuchera Was waiting for the TT site to confirm, but it's stuck at 10 with snowfall accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Any concern about the disturbance in the Northern Gulf cutting off the moisture flow to the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Turner Team said: Any concern about the disturbance in the Northern Gulf cutting off the moisture flow to the system? Probably not going to be an issue with this setup. Counting on redevelopment to pull us through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 New 12z GFS looks a little improved precip wise...similar footprint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, WarmNose said: HRRX as well That;s 19z? Interesting, I thought it was supposed to start tapering off around 21z, but by the looks of that, it's still going strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WakeCountyWX said: Saw that, then saw the timestamp on the map... 3:53AM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I keep screaming this but if there was ever going to be an event to overperform, THIS IS IT. Agreed! There was an event maybe around 2010 where a classic clipper system came through. While it is not the same, its the temperatures etc...that make it similar. The moisture built back up after the mountains and dropped about 3" around here within 2 hours at most. As soon as the snow started it stuck and never melted because the ground was cold. Was one of the few snows where you see it actually blowing across the road here. The rates werent amazing but we are so used to it taking hours before slushy mess is on the roads it caught everyone off guard. By the time we made it where we were going, a 15 min drive, there was at least an inch everywhere. I feel like this will be very similar. We dont need an inch of precipitation to get 6 inches of snow from this system and the brief warm up we had was nothing compared to a week of below freezing temperatures. As soon as the first flakes fall they will stick. i also think salting roads can make situations like this worse. The snow will stick so quick that the brine wont help much and the snow on top will insulate the lower snow on the road and we will then have temps in the teens which will just create a layer of ice underneath the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: new rgem looks good for the upstate, similar to the nam. The kinking in the isobars back towards the Upstate is great. Could be some surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS has QPF at CLT from 11PM Tues to 2PM Wed. For RDU, QPF from 4AM Wed to 7PM. It's showing a slow moving band, which makes sense given h5, but we may need to see it to believe....it's a prolonged light event with some moderate mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS looks a little better once again.. Each run seems to uptick the QPF by .1 in most Piedmont areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: GFS looks a little better once again.. Each run seems to uptick the QPF by .1 in most Piedmont areas The hi-res models (NAM/RGEM) are south of the GFS with respect to the core precip moving through. GFS is locked more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GSP probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snow. This is one of the times where it's better to be east than west, unfortunately...for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6z GFS: 12z: 12z def better. General placement still the same, as Grit said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: newest rgem with an uptick in qpf. Some .3 to .4 totals around the upstate!!! This is getting good! even with 10:1 ratios, I'll take my 2-3", which NOBODY around here is calling for!! Local TV mets or GSP ! Locked in to their 1" or less totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 You can easily see that slow but steady march south and west. Let's hope it continues, and it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, griteater said: Yeah I said the NAM was good for the upstate....but severely lacking in the NW upstate through the immediate mtn lee And this seems to be a constant in models. East sides of the foothills county will score more than the west in this set up. 6 minutes ago, calculus1 said: GSP probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snow. This is one of the times where it's better to be east than west, unfortunately...for me. No doubt man. It is always a fine line. I live further east in Rutherford than west so, I got that going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Is the RGEM a short range model? Just wondering why the pretty big differences between it and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Is the RGEM a short range model? Just wondering why the pretty big differences between it and GFS? Yes, it's the hi resolution, short range CMC. The 12z CMC matches it for the most part FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is the RGEM a short range model? Just wondering why the pretty big differences between it and GFS? I would probably lean toward the broader precip footprint ideas of the global models (GFS, Euro, UKMet, CMC)....but look at the NAM/RGEM to hone in on where relative mins/maxes could occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Love seeing the models being consistent with at least 3 to 4 for Wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wonder what boat they're on? WRAL TV 26 mins · HOW MUCH SNOW? Here's what WRAL Elizabeth Gardner says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Solak said: Wonder what boat they're on? WRAL TV 26 mins · HOW MUCH SNOW? Here's what WRAL Elizabeth Gardner says I don’t think I’ve ever seen them confidently forecast 4+ somewhere. They’re doing the right thing for TV. A broad 2” is enough for people to take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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