Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 NAM looks great. That Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids idea might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: 3K should be interesting. Nice to see totals beef up across the board as we move in. Hopefully, the other 12Zs follow suit. Good work by the SREF this time. It seems like this type of event is more in the wheelhouse for the srefs to be accurate. The coastals throw so many outliers that the mean is meaningless. But since the Max's are only showing around 4" it's all more believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 3K should be interesting. Nice to see totals beef up across the board as we move in. Hopefully, the other 12Zs follow suit. Good work by the SREF this time. 3k looks great as well. much improved from 6z with some strong banding showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Radar is looking great I have a feeling we are gonna get smacked. Just a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: One of the rare times S of 85 in GSP area, could be better off than North! Yeah I said the NAM was good for the upstate....but severely lacking in the NW upstate through the immediate mtn lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: these clown maps could be on the low side as well given the possible rations being more 12-20:1 versus the 10:1 on most of these maps.... Was getting ready to post the same. Hoping we can get into some 15:1. Its doable. Think paducha had like 20 +: 1 yesterday, thats insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I just got NAM'd! Could someone explain to me the difference between positive, neutral and negative tilt and how it would effect the forecast here?http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Me, Oconeexman, and lookout will hug the Hrrrx! What is this model again? lol Anxious to see what the rgem looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'm predicting a northwest shift of the "jackpot" right before go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: 3k looks great as well. much improved from 6z with some strong banding showing up. Anybody have the frame or two before this, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: How's the tilt look on the nam? Gotta get neutral to tap the gulf. It was a little weird. The western side of the trough made it look a little more positive tilt, while the more important eastern side of the trough was a little less positive tilt (better) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Triangle looks good for 3 to 5 according to the latest short range models. Could see some winter storm warnings go up tonight. This is a classic look for your stock moderate winterstorm in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Big question for the western areas is how quick the redevelopment takes place and how far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 FYI, just form anecdotal evidence. I have noticed that in these type setups, precip usually over performs for the tiny warm bubble behind the mountains from lookouts house up to Oconee county. I contribute this over-performing do to the slight amount of lift created when the cold air from the northwest is lifted over this dome of warmer air. It usually doesn't help us at all though b/c it's typical raining in these set ups while everyone else is cold enough for snow. If we can manage to be cold enough for snow I expect there to be some qpf there for us in this "no man's land area". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3k NAM say the precip really blossoms east of the mountains at 7 AM or so and then it can't stop won't stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, HKY_WX said: Triangle looks good for 3 to 5 according to the latest short range models. Could see some winter storm warnings go up tonight. This is a classic look for you stock moderate winterstorm in central NC. You said this 3 days ago yet we've banged out 10 thousand posts pulling our hair out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Anybody have the frame or two before this, thanks precip redevelops over you, good for 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Anybody have the frame or two before this, thanksHere you go MackSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Me, Oconeexman, and lookout will hug the Hrrrx! What is this model again? lol Anxious to see what the rgem looks like... lol for real. what's funny is after following this model for a little while, it tends to have a dry bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi Res NAM matches up well with standard NAM on precip placement overall. For RDU, it has temps below freezing for the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Latest Hrrr Has Precip developing further west than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 James Spann: UPDATE: With the steady progression of the snow, we recommend no travel in Tuscaloosa/Birmingham/Gadsden after 10am. Conditions will deteriorate rather quickly once the snow begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, griteater said: You said this 3 days ago yet we've banged out 10 thousand posts pulling our hair out lol, I try to stay away from looking at the sfc maps too much until 36 or 48 hours if I can. This vort has a lot of rotation associated with it per the 500mb vorticity maps and it's strengthening as it heads into the TN Valley. This will be enough to spark a weak coastal low. We should see some enhancement over central/eastern NC due to this. 2 or 3 is likely. 4 to 5 is not out of the question in the lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: I believe I read the last time that happened was in the 70s but not 100% sure. Didn’t it just happen early December 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Most important thing I saw on the NAM is the thermals are much colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, sarcean said: I'm predicting a northwest shift of the "jackpot" right before go time. You're probably right...BTW we have moved to Todd, NC looks like a nice snow for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, sarcean said: I'm predicting a northwest shift of the "jackpot" right before go time. Based on what evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Justicebork said: 3k NAM say the precip really blossoms east of the mountains at 7 AM or so and then it can't stop won't stop I'm in west Tn and it's been snowing since 10pm last night. So it's a good bet if this thing holds together that your gonna see a long duration snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 hr 24 on the experimental hrrr looks nice to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Most important thing I saw on the NAM is the thermals are much colder than the GFS. The GFS will have no clue in these scenarios on timing. Usually will be way too warm behind the front for too long. I was comparing it for places like BNA BHM ATL and it was much too slow working the cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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