Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Something to watch today is how the HRRR handles the advancing precipitation and it's crossing of, or redevelopment east of, the mountains. The early trend has been to collapse the precipitation but redevelop it quickly just east of the higher ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I think he's one of the best. But, I don't watch him or other on air mets because they're too conservative and simplistic. Don't get me wrong, I understand that they have to cater to the general public. So really my problem is I know more than the general public and because of this I don't watch TV/cable mets. This site and the NWS is it. So does Forbes magazine and the AMS. Google him. Very well respected nationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I think he's one of the best. But, I don't watch him or other on air mets because they're too conservative and simplistic. Don't get me wrong, I understand that they have to cater to the general public. So really my problem is I know more than the general public and because of this I don't watch TV/cable mets. This site and the NWS is it. Producers lock them down at times. Public panic is a real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Any word on how the forecasts are performing in central TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: Something to watch today is how the HRRR handles the advancing precipitation and it's crossing of, or redevelopment east of, the mountains. The early trend has been to collapse the precipitation but redevelop it quickly just east of the higher ridges. Just looked at our local NBC affiliates in house radar ( RPM)?, showed a very solid line of atleast moderate snow, and expands as its over the upstate! It has snow for about 12 hours. Starting at midnight and ending around noon! If that's even close to being right, easy 1-3" snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just looked at our local NBC affiliates in house radar ( RPM)?, showed a very solid line of atleast moderate snow, and expands as its over the upstate! It has snow for about 12 hours. Starting at midnight and ending around noon! If that's even close to being right, easy 1-3" snow! Look at the radar down in Florida Mack. Robert at WxSouth said that if the Florida Panhandle gets snow, then there is a shot at ALL 50 states having snow on the ground at the same time. I wonder when the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'm guessing we shouldn't trust the 21 HR RAP but this not a bad look right here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Producers lock them down at times. Public panic is a real thing. I've noticed a big change in just the time I've been on the boards, which covers the last 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 WRAL is calling 1-3 - they aren't being THAT conservative. Fishel has been relatively hush leading up to storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Look at the radar down in Florida Mack. Robert at WxSouth said that if the Florida Panhandle gets snow, then there is a shot at ALL 50 states having snow on the ground at the same time. I wonder when the last time that happened? Didn't that happen a couple of weeks ago with the coastal crusher? [Or did the snow that fell in FL not accumulate] Still an infrequent achievement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 SREF plumes jumped to near 3" in GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Other broadcast mets have actually been kind of condescending in the past few storms to us weather hobbyist. This is our super bowl! There is no greater natural high than checking model to model forecasts. It is like a sports game. Of course we root for some over others. We all want to win! I think it is sad when they give us one of the "don't model hop" lectures on the vlogs. I live for model hopping. The ironic thing about it is, some of them hug the EURO or GFS harder than I hug the NAM-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 big jump in the sref plumes for clt, up to 1.8", highest they have been so far. jumped from 1.2" at 09z. nam should come in better here i would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: big jump in the sref plumes for clt, up to 1.8", highest they have been so far. jumped from 1.2" at 09z. nam should come in better here i would think. How'd they do for RDU, sir? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Huntsville radar picked one hell of a time to go offline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: How'd they do for RDU, sir? Mean 2.64 (up from 1.98) range from 1" to 4.16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How'd they do for RDU, sir? jumped from 1.9" to 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, wake4est said: Mean 2.6 (up from 1.98) range from 1" to 4.16" Thanks. It's been said that that portends a jump with the upcoming NAM output. Didn't work like that last time, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The Raleigh area appears the most likely to see greater than 1 inch of accumulating snow, according to the WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 44 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I think he's one of the best. But, I don't watch him or other on air mets because they're too conservative and simplistic. Don't get me wrong, I understand that they have to cater to the general public. So really my problem is I know more than the general public and because of this I don't watch TV/cable mets. This site and the NWS is it. I just think they are so scared of busting with predicting too much and getting grief from the public. They start low and that way they at least warn the public of the threat so they are aware of the possibility. If it ends up being more than they forecasted, that's okay because they still warned the public about it. But if they say 4 inches now and it doesn't do anything, then they worry the next time the public won't believe them when they say there is a threat of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks. It's been said that that portends a jump with the upcoming NAM output. Didn't work like that last time, but we'll see. Something doesn't seem right with the last 2 NAM outputs. It's qpf looks off to me. I know it had some issues on the 0z run, but I don't know about the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I just think they are so scared of busting with predicting too much and getting grief from the public. They start low and that way they at least warn the public of the threat so they are aware of the possibility. If it ends up being more than they forecasted, that's okay because they still warned the public about it. But if they say 4 inches now and it doesn't do anything, then they worry the next time the public won't believe them when they say there is a threat of snow. That sounds right. And really it's what they have to do. I probably would as well put in their place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 These are about as good of antecedent conditions that we've seen since probably 2014 for a snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Eric Webb going with 3-6" northern nc into southern va and mby. Hope hes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I also think the fact this isnt going to be 6:1 or 7:1 slop that we see a good bit is being very underrated by people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I just think they are so scared of busting with predicting too much and getting grief from the public. They start low and that way they at least warn the public of the threat so they are aware of the possibility. If it ends up being more than they forecasted, that's okay because they still warned the public about it. But if they say 4 inches now and it doesn't do anything, then they worry the next time the public won't believe them when they say there is a threat of snow. good post Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I just think they are so scared of busting with predicting too much and getting grief from the public. They start low and that way they at least warn the public of the threat so they are aware of the possibility. If it ends up being more than they forecasted, that's okay because they still warned the public about it. But if they say 4 inches now and it doesn't do anything, then they worry the next time the public won't believe them when they say there is a threat of snow. You’re correct in that assessment.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: These are about as good of antecedent conditions that we've seen since probably 2014 for a snow. Yep, I agree, the ground is frozen, roads are cold, and the ratios will be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yep SREF mean was down last run, but increased this run back close to where it was before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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