SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Fourthed Fifthed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 FifthedDoing that with a bottle of Stoli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: 51 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Fifthed Doing that with a bottle of Stoli. Blue Ice here on the top of this mountain. Currently 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Would be serving that there is at least a threat in the time frame. I’m on my 7 off at work. Waiting to see how it unfolds. Wondering if we do have accumulation if it would be lower temps for the daily highs in the few days following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Blue Ice here on the top of this mountain. Currently 27.Last place I saw LaBatt's Blue Ice was NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Still got ice on the deep river coming home today where 85 crosses it. Stuff really froze thick to still be visible with our 4 day thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: Would be serving that there is at least a threat in the time frame. I’m on my 7 off at work. Waiting to see how it unfolds. Wondering if we do have accumulation if it would be lower temps for the daily highs in the few days following. Pretty cold for daily highs and lows for about 48hrs after this potential weather 'event' next Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Still got ice on the deep river coming home today where 85 crosses it. Stuff really froze thick to still be visible with our 4 day thaw. Parts of Lake Norman split from from I-77 had a frozen layer of thin ice after last week's cold. Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Very Interesting AFD coming out of KILM tonight.. Long term /Monday through Friday/... as of 300 PM Friday...cold weather will persist through the period with a risk for wintry precipitation Tue night into Wed eve. High pressure will wedge down the East Coast Mon with a coastal trough developing offshore during Mon and Mon night. Low pressure is expected to develop off the Carolina coast, but where and when this area of low pressure initiates is still a big question. Should the low develop close enough to the coast, then there will be a risk for precipitation along portions of the more immediate coast later Mon and Tue and possibly into Tue night. There is some potential that any precipitation which does clip the coast in direct association with the developing coastal low and trough could be a wintry mix. Confidence is a little higher that a vigorous upper low and associated strong shortwave energy will move across the eastern Carolinas and provide ample lift in the wake of the surface low. The column should be sufficiently moist and cold enough to support frozen precipitation, at least for a portion of the time. Timing is not quite nailed down, but the GFS has trended further S with the upper low and slowed its timing and is now in better agreement with the Euro in showing the brunt of the upper level support pivoting across the forecast area Wed into Wed eve. We have included pops for Tue eve and night through Wed afternoon/eve, first starting across our inland most zones and ending lastly across the Cape Fear area. Snow is favored, although precipitation should tend to at least mix with rain during the warmest part of Wed afternoon before any left over precipitation trends back to snow. For obvious reasons, including the time range we are dealing with and model inconsistencies, we can not accurately forecast accumulations at this time. However, there is a good chance that some accumulation will occur. Generally speaking, in these scenarios, we do not receive significant precipitation. However, should the coastal low develop closer to the coast, then more significant quantitative precipitation forecast is possible. We will continue to monitor and later forecasts should provide more refined details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 0Z GGEM has joined the party..somewhat. It has light precip over the eastern half of NC on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 But the GFS is going to shoot a blank I think. EDIT: it gets going late again...light snow RDU east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Poimen said: 0Z GGEM has joined the party..somewhat. It has light precip over the eastern half of NC on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the GFS has backed off with the deepness of the trough the last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Any little pull back with this setup and it will turn into a very light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The CMC upper levels would suggest there should be more snow across the deep south from 96-108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CMC upper levels would suggest there should be more snow across the deep south from 96-108 You think so? The H5 levels suggest the flow is too westerly to get any real moisture fetch from the gulf going. Only around 114 does the SW flow really get going. Too late for Atlanta at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: You think so? The H5 levels suggest the flow is too westerly to get any real moisture fetch from the gulf going. Only around 114 does the SW flow really get going. Too late for Atlanta at least. I think this has not been an ATL threat since it popped up? But not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I think this has not been an ATL threat since it popped up? But not sure Euro and the GEFS shows some snow here and it wouldn't take much for this to evolve into a bit of snow for Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The ICON has joined in to, although like the GGEM, the highest totals are from RDU east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 So the theme of the night seems to be lighter totals and farther east, but more models on board with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This reminds me of the January 2014 snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: So the theme of the night seems to be lighter totals and farther east, but more models on board with something. Its gonna back and forth till Sunday when the hi res come into range and the energy is better modeled, still the trend is for something which is better than nothing.....I like these setups they tend to over perform when they actually happen....a lot of the storms that get the whole state evolve this way....I am optimistic with this one....I have my yearly average already anything on top is butter....I also like the repeating Wed timeframe that's a check in the its gonna happen column for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 UK on board now with a similar look to the GFS and CMC. Precip Raleigh and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Euro steady as she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 For places like MS, TN, and AL, this threat would occur on 1/16. The only thing lacking is moisture, and we all know how models have underperformed in that department this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Euro is a good hit for many on the board. RDU back towards Greensboro look to be the sweet spot. Straight 10:1 would give RDU more than 4", but with higher ratios maybe a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 hours ago, shahroz98 said: This reminds me of the January 2014 snow event. It is in the top analogs at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The euro is good but awfully close to being too warm for Wake. Could have more rain than snow. Look at eastern wake right on the line. NW trend still to come. If this is more Miller B I would like to see the precip move more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 anyone got the kuchera Euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, Poimen said: anyone got the kuchera Euro maps? Somebody in MA posted some for their area. The map didn't extend into NC but did show higher ratios falling in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 From RAH: Regardless of whether or not a closed low forms within the aforementioned meridional trough, strong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover to snow Tue night-Wed morning. This system certainly has the potential to produce measurable snow over the middle Atlantic states, including cntl NC, but forecasting such an occurrence with any degree of confidence at this time range would be premature. Indeed, if the trough aloft is weaker and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, to inconsequential flake event would result. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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