tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I think he meant adiabatic.That I understand. Thermodynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The latest 3k nam matches pretty good with their snow map and the latest GFS qpf.. If this keeps trending wetter tommrows runs should be interesting.. Let’s see what the euro has to say about the latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lol @ GFS. Last one to get a clue. I've noticed when it's off and starts correcting it does in like baby steps. Happened over the past 4 cycles with this storm and several others preceeding. Has anyone else noticed this. Crazy, seems like it would just jump at once and correct. Anyway the beat goes on. Like my 2-5 for Triad and shot for a 6 inch lollipop along 85 in NC which runs from Charlotte to VA line up above Durham. And it's up that way 0z models are show ing this. Nam will be totally different by 6z if it starts off correctly. Biggest hurdle is gonna be Radar watching in the morning. We'll hear a lot of deep breaths being taking as radar goes through a down tick right before coming back to life tommorow night. So weenies be forewarned and don't panic/jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Poimen said: And the GGEM is just like the RGEM. After a bad start with the NAM, all in all not a bad evening. See you gents tomorrow. Where are you getting the GGEM so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: Trending to Wake County....... again! TW Well, since the NAM was obviously a flawed run, and the GFS is on-board, that means we will have some snowfall across the region. Now we can focus on the amounts and who will get the higher totals. Right now the Raleigh area is favored, but I would venture to say that the jackpot may move around a bit in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: Lol @ GFS. Last one to get a clue. I've noticed when it's off and starts correcting it does in like baby steps. Happened over the past 4 cycles with this storm and several others preceeding. Has anyone else noticed this. Crazy, seems like it would just jump at once and correct. Anyway the beat goes on. Like my 2-5 for Triad and shot for a 6 inch lollipop along 85 in NC which runs from Charlotte to VA line up above Durham. And it's up that way 0z models are show ing this. Nam will be totally different by 6z if it starts off correctly. Biggest hurdle is gonna be Radar watching in the morning. We'll hear a lot of deep breaths being taking as radar goes through a down tick right before coming back to life tommorow night. So weenies be forewarned and don't panic/jump. Warm air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Where are you getting the GGEM so early? https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html The old black and whites usually update first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: I’ll take it Remember that's 10 to 1. I'd add an inch to those totals , which is Winter Storm Warning for several folks in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Warm air.... Yep. This is the greatest threat to a lack of snow accumulation east of the apps. The models being too early on the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'm struggling with all the talk about possible rain and mixing issues while also talking about high ratios. I suspect 10:1 will be good for this one except for in the mountains where they will do a bit better. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Warm air.... That's a concern toward triangle, but aside from icon profiles ,even RDU will be fine except maybe 1st 15 mins. Have to get closer to start time to nail down. But that's some cold 850s above. Column will cool fast even with 2ms in the mid upper 30s. Espeacilly at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, wake4est said: I’ll take it Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 AKQ has upped the possible totals for KECG to 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 0z GFS; the upper level trough never quite gets to neutral let alone go negative, but it does sharpen up a bit and almost gets to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Remember that's 10 to 1. I'd add an inch to those totals , which is Winter Storm Warning for several folks in NC We've definitely seen well over 10 to 1 ratios in these areas before but from my experience it isn't easy to forecast. I'm not sure I'd just assume 13:1 2 days out when we're still talking about potential for temperature issues and issues with dry area in the dendritic growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: 0z GFS; the upper level trough never quite gets to neutral let alone go negative, but it does sharpen up a bit and almost gets to neutral. Still playing catch-up I see. The 0z RGEM and the 0z CMC close it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Dunkman said: We've definitely seen well over 10 to 1 ratios in these areas before but from my experience it isn't easy to forecast. I'm not sure I'd just assume 13:1 2 days out when we're still talking about potential for temperature issues and issues with dry area in the dendritic growth zone. http://nickelblock.com/?p=1061 good explanation for dendritic growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Still playing catch-up I see. The 0z RGEM and the 0z CMC close it off. Yes but NAM doesn’t close it off and keeps it oriented like the GFS. The RGEM also trended to closing off slower as did the CMC so it appears the NAM/GFS have the 5H setup nailed. The 12z Euro was also similar to the NAM/GFS and UK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Yes but NAM doesn’t close it off and keeps it oriented like the GFS. The RGEM also trended to closing off slower as did the CMC so it appears the NAM/GFS have the 5H setup nailed. The 12z Euro was also similar to the NAM/GFS and UK too. 0z Nam was a flawed run. Didn't you hear? It was discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Can someone please comment on how we look here in Asheville for this event? From what I've seen we well be lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nancy Drew Mysteries Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, BooneWX said: . What amount was forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Nancy Drew Mysteries said: What amount was forecast? Not even close to that...people say it was way underforcasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Nancy Drew Mysteries said: What amount was forecast? Don’t hold me to it, but I believe it was in the 1-3 or 2-4 ball park. I don’t recall them being in a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Nancy Drew Mysteries said: What amount was forecast? 1-2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: 0z Nam was a flawed run. Didn't you hear? It was discounted. I haven't seen anything about the NAM run being flawed outside of what you've posted in this thread. Have anything to add? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: 0z Nam was a flawed run. Didn't you hear? It was discounted. The 18z and 12z showed the same. It’s hard to bet against NAM/Euro/UK at this range... and my point was that the RGEM/CMC trended WORSE with the vort taking longer to close off. That adds validity to the NAM/Euro/UK idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Most guidance is pushing back the timing of this event to mostly during the day Wednesday for piedmont and eastern areas..at least many will likely see snow tv outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I haven't seen anything about the NAM run being flawed outside of what you've posted in this thread. Have anything to add? It had issues and broken images when coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Another word of caution, the RGEM has an amp bias at the end of its range, 48 hours out. That’s what we saw with 12z and 18z runs. The 00z RGEM run backed off quite a bit while the NAM/GFS were similar to their prior runs. I’m leaning towards the UK/NAM camp as it’s been pretty consistent with the overall idea, the NAM is likely a little low on qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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