Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: The GFS has been showing something similar to what the latest NAM model run showed. It has been doing this for several runs now in a row but yet people want to write it off because it doesn’t show what they want. You can’t write off consistency. You can write off stupid, though. The GFS has been pretty terrible so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, lilj4425 said: The GFS has been showing something similar to what the latest NAM model run showed. It has been doing this for several runs now in a row but yet people want to write it off because it doesn’t show what they want. You can’t write off consistency. In everybody's defense, when it's the GFS vs. every other model in the world, we know how that one turns out. Even if the GFS is right, we would not go with it the next time it is the extreme outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: In everybody's defense, when it's the GFS vs. every other model in the world, we know how that one turns out. Even if the GFS is right, we would not go with it the next time it is the extreme outlier. True and fair enough but for the main American model not to cave is worrisome even with it being an outlier with this system and crappy this season. Hopefully it turns out to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 OK...the RGEM is much better than the NAM. Highest totals are over the western piedmont. We live for another model...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 OK...the RGEM is much better than the NAM.How much better? A flake here is better!!! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That nam run just broke me. I guess I'll wait until morning, but it seems like icon and rgem are on an island in lalaland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: True and fair enough but for the main American model not to cave is worrisome even with it being an outlier with this system and crappy this season. Hopefully it turns out to be wrong. This just goes to show you how volatile this event is. It will come down to a closed / not-closed battle. We might not know the final solution until tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If that's a 15 mm max...that's like .5 or something qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: If that's a 15 mm max...that's like .5 or something qpf. its .59" actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 WWA upgraded to WSW...due to models not seeing moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, WakeCountyWX said: This will be important to watch in the coming day. EDIT: according to a response to this tweet, it's not virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RGEM looks similar in upstate. It's lighter west of I77 in NC. Looks fine east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Wow...everything is coming in worse and worse for us West of I-77'ers! Geez...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: What time of day is this on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 If that's a 15 mm max...that's like .5 or something qpf. 1mm is .039 inches, so it's closer to .60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looks like this system is taking a turn for the positive and will make our lives in the Western Carolinas NEGATIVE. Hope this is bad runs across the board. Watch the GFS roll in and hammer us. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The RGEM confirms what I’m thinking. That shows portions of Wake still raining at 1pm. We could see rain all morning and only snow the last 2-3 hours of event. Thats going to be the fly in the ointment and hamper accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 it appears to me the over performance out west right now is happening before the system taps any gulf moisture at all YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhart Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 @RichardJackswhat do you think for bham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RGEM looks good even though it trended away from the closed low scenario. Good snows for Northern and Central Piedmont down to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: The RGEM confirms what I’m thinking. That shows portions of Wake still raining at 1pm. We could see rain all morning and only snow the last 2-3 hours of event. Thats going to be the fly in the ointment and hamper accumulations. Rgem is all snow no rain. That’s the German model posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: RGEM looks good even though it trended away from the closed low scenario. Good snows for Northern and Central Piedmont down to RDU RGEM gives us 3 here. Gonna ride it to glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, BillT said: it appears to me the over performance out west right now is happening before the system taps any gulf moisture at all YET The only DEVIL in the details is the timing and the colder air they have to work with there, vs when the system arrives here in the Carolinas. Maybe we will have more precip to play with and it evens out anyways. Who knows. Always a dang NAILBITER here in the NC Piedmont. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RGEM qpf.. keep in mind snow is still falling for RDU and areas east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Pretty sure its still snowing at HR 48 on the RGEM from the Triangle east, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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