Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Soundings from the NAM show pronounced drying between 850-700mb here...that hasn't been there in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Quick...everybody hug the ICON or JMA or something. All hail the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That was disappointing to say the least lol.. Still snowing in eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Balmy 36 for RDU at precip onset. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 NAM has nothing for upstate, foothills and w piedmont....weird NAM run or beginning of drier runs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: Soundings from the NAM show pronounced drying between 850-700mb here...that hasn't been there in previous runs. What's up with that? Possible fluke run like the one last night..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 NAM showed a lot of similarities to the 12z Euro. Overall precip pattern was very similar with the NAM a bit drier. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 With this current NAM run being a major change from the last few runs, I'd be willing to not take it *too* seriously. It definitely bears watching though. Will continue to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Oi. Now I get the SREF totals for RDU, but with temps, I just can't even see that much. Bad run for basically everybody else, and as much as I hate seeing RDU get screwed all the time, this would really stink for a lot of people, I hope this is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Quick...everybody hug the ICON or JMA or something. All hail the GFS. Do you care about not being a ****poster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nam less qpf but just like every model showing a quick change to snow, maybe we can concentrate on qpf not rain for now? If there was a big warm layer Nam would show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi ReS NAM looks even worse.. very dry and positive tilt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM has nothing for upstate, foothills and w piedmont....weird NAM run or beginning of drier runs?? I have a sinking feeling I already know the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi Res NAM drier as well....bring on the RGEM as fast as you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 good grief. anyone care to trash brad p's 40% chance at zero now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: good grief. anyone care to trash brad p's 40% chance at zero now? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Hi Res NAM drier as well....bring on the RGEM as fast as you can! All I can do is laugh. CLT has SEEN THE SHAFT this year SO BAD. LOL. SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 In the past I remember the NAM handling ULL or similar type systems well..would be very surprised if RGEM came in as good as last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have to wonder if the higher amounts near the front tonight is just because the cold air is squeezing every bit of moisture out and the models don't handle that too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: In the past I remember the NAM handling ULL or similar type systems well..would be very surprised if RGEM came in as good as last run If the RGEM caves, we know what that means. It would be very funny to see the GFS come in amped up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi Res NAM is pretty good for triangle, and Chapel Hill/Durham. 2 to 4 inches in pockets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Is it me or does the NAM 3K look better in southeastern NC at 43? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This close in I look at radar returns more than the models. I'm pretty encouraged over what is building over East Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Quick...everybody hug the ICON or JMA or something. All hail the GFS. Really??? What does that even mean?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Snow dog said: Really??? What does that even mean?!? He's being sarcastic right now..... the GFS has been showing a solution like that for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Going to be hard for me to stay up for other model runs after that terrible nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res NAM is pretty good for triangle, and Chapel Hill/Durham. 2 to 4 inches in pockets Yeah, it actually increased totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Really??? What does that even mean?!? The GFS has been showing something similar to what the latest NAM model run showed. It has been doing this for several runs now in a row but yet people want to write it off because it doesn’t show what they want. They would rather hug the wettest or coldest model like the ICON. You can’t write off consistency though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The RGEM is not going to be as good as previous runs, but it still looks better than the NAM AT hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On a good note, I am seeing reports the snow with this in western Tennessee is over performing. Memphis upgraded to a WSW, expecting 3" to 7" in that area. I believe the last system was over performing the night before??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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