PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1-2” still looks good for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wow said: Eastern areas probably don't want a storm as amped as RGEM given how far west the upper low cuts off. Western Piedmont and mtns will definitely want this as precip will back build as gulf moisture is drawn in. Yeah surface temps are iffy but I will take that chance its cold aloft so if we get that coastal to go I think we do ok....at least 2-4" This isnt a bad look for us, the frame before is wet too but we are mixing though again I would rather take my chances we can overcome the shallow warm air with rates versus not having the cut off and SLP off the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 1-2” still looks good for Wake. Even with the late precip? That whole idea is scary to me. (Granted I’m in CH but still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18z RGEM +54hrs at 500, 700 and 850mb, granted, this is in the 10% right now and ideally most in NC would like these centers to be to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 IMO areas southeast of l85 in the upstate all the way to Newberry could be looking at 2-3"+ shortrange models picking up on some good precip streaming out of the gulf. Possible training Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: 18z RGEM +54hrs at 500, 700 and 850mb, granted, this is in the 10% right now and ideally most in NC would like these centers to be to our south. That look imo with the vort is an absolute perfect pass for over performing if people are viewing this in southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: That look imo with the vort is an absolute perfect pass for over performing if people are viewing this in southern VA. Amen. I would love to see it happen but it is the big outlier atm. I think tonights NAM run will trend a little better for our areas. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Brad posted a new video. Mentioned the timing wasn’t that great with warm temps. That’s my worry for Wake. Precip getting here and temps in mid 30s. Cold rain special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Amen. I would love to see it happen but it is the big outlier atm. I think tonights NAM run will trend a little better for our areas. We shall see. I agree. I thought 5h looked great at 18z just didn’t produce the goods wrt qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 59 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: 18z RGEM +54hrs at 500, 700 and 850mb, granted, this is in the 10% right now and ideally most in NC would like these centers to be to our south. That looks very nice. 500mb vort max is pretty far south and it looks like the 700mb omega tracks thru the core of our forum for those who are expecting some snow. Certainly seems on the upper end of the model guidance, but we'll see how it trends. I have to say, the Euro has been ahead of the curve with this one when you go back a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Brad posted a new video. Mentioned the timing wasn’t that great with warm temps. That’s my worry for Wake. Precip getting here and temps in mid 30s. Cold rain special RAH mentions if dry air rushes in we could see mixing issues here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Mike Dross posted an hourly 1km hi-res NAM animation - you can count the hours of potential snow at your locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, wake4est said: RAH mentions if dry air rushes in we could see mixing issues here Not worried about that as much as I am warm surface temps with precip arriving later in morning close to noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhart Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 What does it look like in BHM? Behind in this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Not worried about that as much as I am warm surface temps with precip arriving later in morning close to noon How would dry air moving in cause mixing issues??? Seems that would cause temps to drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temp issues are being overblown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Dry air behind the system will shut off precip. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Dry air behind the system will shut off precip. TW Yeah..I get that but someone just said dry air moving in would cause mixing issues...think it was wake4east. Never heard of such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said: Yeah..I get that but someone just said dry air moving in would cause mixing issues...think it was wake4east. Never heard of such. Mentioned in the NWS afternoon product earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Mentioned in the NWS afternoon product earlier today Oh...just hoping someone would explain that process to me. How can dry air cause mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m beginning to wonder how many people remember we made it to 44 on the day before the 1/23/03 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said: Yeah..I get that but someone just said dry air moving in would cause mixing issues...think it was wake4east. Never heard of such. Could cause the snow growth region to get cut off and cause either freezing drizzle or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said: Oh...just hoping someone would explain that process to me. How can dry air cause mixing issues? I think drying in the dendrite growth zones can result in something other than snow. In the past, I think this was primarily associated with lighter precip - as in freezing drizzle or snow grains. I don't remember it being something that would really impact rain vs. snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, SEwakenosnowforu said: Oh...just hoping someone would explain that process to me. How can dry air cause mixing issues? Source, fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I’m beginning to wonder how many people remember we made it to 44 on the day before the 1/23/03 storm. That was a serious blast of cold air that came in that night. Remember it was 19 by 1 or 2 am when the snow started. But yeah..I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Temp issues are being overblown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: Source, fyi Interesting thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Current point forecast for my part of JoCo: Tuesday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. Light and variable wind. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Solak said: Current point forecast for my part of JoCo: Tuesday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. Light and variable wind. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow. Yeah...this is why the comparisons to 2003 need to stop. That was a brutal arctic front. This is mediocre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Not sure where WeatherNC is here, but saw he thinks 3+ is possible from Wake Forest to Emporia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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